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powderfreak

NNE Winter Thread

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Interesting storm....about what I expected.   2-3" of sleet.   Started as brief snow late evening Monday and went right to ice pellets.  Wind really howled overnight.  Lost power for 5 hours with just driving BB's slamming the windows.  Precip shut off early morning and really for all of yesterday, last evening and last night we had basically nothing.  Everything rotated around us.  I think the models kind of showed this before hand.

So we are left with about 4" of snow.  Old snow underneath and glaciated hard pack sleet above.  27F earlier cemented everything.  Interestingly with cold air damning we had a high of only 34.2F.  We didn't have any freezing rain.

Next......

 

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I've been talking to adk and I think we are both on the same page...one of these periods is going to go big or we are just going to get 2-5" per day for like 3 days in a row.

12z GFS would bring probably 10-18" of upslope by the end of Sunday starting tomorrow night.

The trick will be trying to nail down the best looking time frames, which look to be at night which is historically when I've noted the best upslope gets going with the nocturnal inversion developing.

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Upslope excites me to no end.  Love looking at the snow covered trees from the barren Champlain Valley.  I makes me all warm and cozy with memories of old times when the ground was white and the ponds would freeze in January.  Good schtuff.

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8 minutes ago, ApacheTrout said:

Upslope excites me to no end.  Love looking at the snow covered trees from the barren Champlain Valley.  I makes me all warm and cozy with memories of old times when the ground was white and the ponds would freeze in January.  Good schtuff.

Yea I hear you, I guess living vicariously through PF's pics of dinner plates falling from the sky at Stowe isn't a good substitute for actual snow. Lol

I could see freak, Jspin and Alex cleaning up the next 3-4 days. I would consider a few inches a win down here in the tropics.

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1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

Strong signal from the GGEM which historically does very bad with being way too low in QPF in these upslope regimes.

Its like 4 days worth of periods of snow.

cmc_snow_acc_neng_21.png

I'll take the 4" and be happy. Already much better than last year, I've done 120 miles on the sleds vs 0 all last year. 

Look at me being all optimistic and stuff. We'll see if it lasts. 

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36 minutes ago, mreaves said:

I'll take the 4" and be happy. Already much better than last year, I've done 120 miles on the sleds vs 0 all last year. 

Look at me being all optimistic and stuff. We'll see if it lasts. 

You should snow too...unblocked flow looks to carry it down wind quite a bit.

Euro has 0.3-0.7" of QPF by early Saturday morning for a large area from MPV northward.

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1 hour ago, backedgeapproaching said:

Yea I hear you, I guess living vicariously through PF's pics of dinner plates falling from the sky at Stowe isn't a good substitute for actual snow. Lol

I could see freak, Jspin and Alex cleaning up the next 3-4 days. I would consider a few inches a win down here in the tropics.

lol but hey that's half of this threads posters right now.

Models look good down near you too, EURO has .3-.4" for you by Sat morning.  I'm not going to get 12" at home but think like you I'd get a few inches and call it a win.

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1 hour ago, ApacheTrout said:

Upslope excites me to no end.  Love looking at the snow covered trees from the barren Champlain Valley.  I makes me all warm and cozy with memories of old times when the ground was white and the ponds would freeze in January.  Good schtuff.

Ha!  Awesome. 

I honestly don't know how we get you guys in the valley snow anymore.  It just seems like such an uphill battle.  I don't even know what type of storm it should be. 

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1 hour ago, backedgeapproaching said:

Yea I hear you, I guess living vicariously through PF's pics of dinner plates falling from the sky at Stowe isn't a good substitute for actual snow. Lol

I could see freak, Jspin and Alex cleaning up the next 3-4 days. I would consider a few inches a win down here in the tropics.

My over/under good mood/bad mood for January rain events has been far exceeded,hence the grumpy post, ;) 

Upslope events are supposed to be the trail mix keeping the hunger at bay between the main meal synoptic or clipper systems*.  They might produce a dusting, or even an inch or two with from a wandering band down here in the Champlain Valley, while letting loose a good 5-8 inches in the mountains, especially up north.  Snow advisory type events in those places.  Heck, with the right flow and moisture, a winter storm warning.  But these upslope events from this year and last year are store-brand bread crumbs, even for the guys who regularly see above the inversion layer.  8-10 inches over the next 4 days?  Yeesh.

*good lord - would we even recognize a true clipper?

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7 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Ha!  Awesome. 

I honestly don't know how we get you guys in the valley snow anymore.  It just seems like such an uphill battle.  I don't even know what type of storm it should be. 

It simply doesn't anymore, not in a big way anyway. We are fast approaching the 2 year mark since the last warning level snowfall here.

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12 minutes ago, eyewall said:

It simply doesn't anymore, not in a big way anyway. We are fast approaching the 2 year mark since the last warning level snowfall here.

This one was odd.  I mean, it was a coastal storm where I basically had the same conditions 30 miles north of nyc as you guys had up in BTV.  I understand that the warm layer was evident on all the models, but how/why does that happen?  

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23 minutes ago, ApacheTrout said:

.

*good lord - would we even recognize a true clipper?

It would probably include SW flow ahead of the clipper downsloping off the High Peaks into the CPV, then once it passes there would be NW flow into the Greens.  

Ha I honestly don't know how to get good QPF in the form of snow since it's been so long there as BTV does real good on a moist southerly flow up the valley, and those often aren't cold.

 

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2 hours ago, ApacheTrout said:

Upslope excites me to no end.  Love looking at the snow covered trees from the barren Champlain Valley.  I makes me all warm and cozy with memories of old times when the ground was white and the ponds would freeze in January.  Good schtuff.

I have really learned to love upslope after the beatings we've taken at Bretton Woods from the synoptic storms. Even though we don't get the Mansfield numbers, it's really nice snow, and it's hardly ever really included in the P&C forecast, so it always feels like a bonus... and you don't have to worry about sleet, rain, downslope, dry slots, and all that. I'd take 2 weeks of upslope over a single storm, even if they delivered the same amount. 

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54 minutes ago, eyewall said:

It simply doesn't anymore, not in a big way anyway. We are fast approaching the 2 year mark since the last warning level snowfall here.

I think we're over 2-years down here, as the last one I remember was the December 2014 that produced 18 inches of heavy wet snow here.  Heck, that might not even have been a warned event, since it was supposed to turn with rain after 4-6 inches of snow, and it ended up staying all snow.

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32 minutes ago, ApacheTrout said:

I think we're over 2-years down here, as the last one I remember was the December 2014 that produced 18 inches of heavy wet snow here.  Heck, that might not even have been a warned event, since it was supposed to turn with rain after 4-6 inches of snow, and it ended up staying all snow.

That was a warned event.  That was really the last widespread winter storm warning for most of BTV's CWA.

There was a decent wet snow the first day and then the second day like a whole other 6-12" fell.  That was a fun storm.  The CPV actually did best in VT as you wanted to be further west in that one I remember.

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2 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

That was a warned event.  That was really the last widespread winter storm warning for most of BTV's CWA.

There was a decent wet snow the first day and then the second day like a whole other 6-12" fell.  That was a fun storm.  The CPV actually did best in VT as you wanted to be further west in that one I remember.

It was a pretty similar setup to this event, if I recall correctly, just with deeper cold to work with.  I also do remember being at or near the top of the reported totals, which was quite a delight.  We also had 13 inches the night before Thanksgiving.   And then the deep and unbelievable February and March cold set in, along with the suppressed storm track that so nearly obliterated Boston.

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BTV is at 27 inches on the season which is a -12.5" departure for this point in the season in what is shaping up to be the second consecutive failed winter.

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57 minutes ago, alex said:

I have really learned to love upslope after the beatings we've taken at Bretton Woods from the synoptic storms. Even though we don't get the Mansfield numbers, it's really nice snow, and it's hardly ever really included in the P&C forecast, so it always feels like a bonus... and you don't have to worry about sleet, rain, downslope, dry slots, and all that. I'd take 2 weeks of upslope over a single storm, even if they delivered the same amount. 

 

We’ve talked about it before, but these Clipper patterns can be fantastic because in general there’s a lot more predictability and reliability.  There’s no requirement for big phasing, you can basically see what’s upstream and watch them pass through the area like clockwork.  Sometimes they just deliver a bit of snow to freshen things up, and sometimes they interact with the mountain terrain to give some substantial bonus snow.  They don’t really drawn in a ton of warm air, so you typically don’t have to worry about “warm sector” issues either.  There’s tons of upside with very little downside.

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1 hour ago, eyewall said:

BTV is at 27 inches on the season which is a -12.5" departure for this point in the season in what is shaping up to be the second consecutive failed winter.

In all honesty I know its been tough but that departure can be made up pretty quickly.  Even if it goes another couple weeks.  A few events and you are above normal...though I know it seems impossible to you right now.

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My wife was up at Trapp Family Lodge property for some cross country skiing with work friends, and I saw this picture and figured it shows that yes there is winter somewhere.

16196037_10211365738646777_4232519213274

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Got home a little while ago from a few long days of salting, plowing glop, and shoveling. 

Having lived in and around the Burlington, VT area for the past 11 years it has amazed me how different weatherwise consecutive years (particularly winters) could be. The old adage- "It's Vermont, give it 15 minutes and the weather will change"- really rings true on all levels.

Anecdotally, it had seemed that each winter from year to year had it's own tale to tell. Going into each winter was for the most part an unknown. Yes, it's Vermont- we will see snow, it will be cold. We could expect to see something not too far from average, with an anomalous year here and there- no rhyme or reason to the layman. Would it be cold or warm? Would it be above average snow or below? Some were shetty and boring. And some were absolutely beautiful, the quintessential picture of a Vermont winter that you have in your head.

I still find that to be true, for the most part. It just seems like the year to year variability has now turned in to a year to year "variable trend." Whereas the winters 2 and 3 years ago had brutal cold and, from my recollection, above average snowfall. Last year and this year (although it is not over yet), however, really seems as though the switch got flipped. WARM and below average snowfall. 

Just wanted to share my thoughts. I also wanted to share my appreciation of this board and this thread in particular. It is of great value, entertainment, and education to me.

Eyewall, some day you will notice the cleanest, most ice free 2 block-length stretch of sidewalk in the city of Winooski, and you will know that Grambo has been there. Hah!

 

 

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6 hours ago, powderfreak said:

I've been talking to adk and I think we are both on the same page...one of these periods is going to go big or we are just going to get 2-5" per day for like 3 days in a row.

12z GFS would bring probably 10-18" of upslope by the end of Sunday starting tomorrow night.

 

I just checked my point forecast and it’s got roughly 4-7” of snow in the next 48 hours.  The high elevation Mansfield forecast is in the 6-12” range during that period.  I usually find it to be a good sign when accumulation numbers are getting into the point forecasts during these periods because it means the signal is reasonably robust.

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3 hours ago, powderfreak said:

My wife was up at Trapp Family Lodge property for some cross country skiing with work friends, and I saw this picture and figured it shows that yes there is winter somewhere.

16196037_10211365738646777_4232519213274

Very nice! I will surely be in the mountains again over the next couple of days. It was nice seeing waist deep snow on my Mount Washington Hike/Drone flight only to hear it should be 5 feet deeper LOL.

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16 hours ago, powderfreak said:

I've been talking to adk and I think we are both on the same page...one of these periods is going to go big or we are just going to get 2-5" per day for like 3 days in a row.

12z GFS would bring probably 10-18" of upslope by the end of Sunday starting tomorrow night.

The trick will be trying to nail down the best looking time frames, which look to be at night which is historically when I've noted the best upslope gets going with the nocturnal inversion developing.

This is a classic northern green pattern. Upper level trough entrenched behind a wet mild storm. Low levels are moist and warm right now. As successive shortwaves move through with cooler and cooler weather these low levels just get wrung out a little more each time along the spine....throw in some synoptic lift and a clear connection to the great lakes and you get 4 days with snow. 

Right now, I'd say the most moisture falls tonight into Friday but the most snow may be sat-sun due to better snow growth temps. Which is ideal because we could use 4" of dense snow topped with 4" of fluff.....

 

 

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BTV going all in... POPs of 80-90% straight through Sunday morning.

Today
A chance of snow showers before 1pm, then rain and snow showers likely between 1pm and 4pm, then snow showers likely after 4pm. Cloudy, with a high near 38. Southwest wind around 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Total daytime snow accumulation of around an inch possible.
Tonight
Snow showers, mainly before 4am. Low around 21. Breezy, with a west wind 20 to 24 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible.
Friday
Snow showers. High near 25. Breezy, with a west wind around 21 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible.
Friday Night
Snow showers. Low around 19. Breezy, with a west wind 17 to 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 7 inches possible.
Saturday
Snow showers. High near 23. West wind 11 to 17 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible.
Saturday Night
Snow showers. Low around 18. West wind 8 to 11 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%.
Sunday
Snow showers likely, mainly before 7am. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 22. West wind 7 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

 

 

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Classic Taber discussion...love it.

This pattern support
periods of accumulating snowfall...especially across the
northern/western Dacks and central/northern Greens. Given the
long duration of favorable upslope conditions the mountains from
Killington Peak to Mt Allen to Mansfield to Jay Peak will
receive 12 to 18 inches between now and Sunday...in doses of 2
to 4 inches every 12 hours or so. Similar type scenario will
play out across the western/northern Dacks. Meanwhile...valleys
see only a couple inches of snow during this period...with
minimal impact given highest totals are in the mountains.

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