ORH_wxman Posted December 3, 2016 Share Posted December 3, 2016 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: ENS, as usual, probably the way to go in the extended. It probably isn't going to suck, but i wouldn't expect 12/70, either. A pattern like 12/70 or 12/07 you can never predict in advance. The snow that is. Patterns like that have you walking the line. So you don't know if you are getting the goods until the events happen. I suppose that is true with all patterns but it is amplified in those types of patterns. In more iron clad setups we usually say "probably will cash in". In the 1970 patterns you have no idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 3, 2016 Share Posted December 3, 2016 Snowier by the minute Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 3, 2016 Share Posted December 3, 2016 Monday looks like about an inch to me. I hope we get lucky though and get 2"+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted December 3, 2016 Share Posted December 3, 2016 1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: You in school? I miss you being in Woburn...cool comparing obs. Last OT, but took a job down here. I think this is the year of the 128 CF too. Woburn on the line, Wilmington cashing in. Rain to the Medford/Winchester line. Just need a few early season coastals with the warm water to make that a reality. Ill be back 12/22-1/2, so I hope we avoid the typical grinch pattern just one time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 3, 2016 Share Posted December 3, 2016 Models are still very much up in the air mid week. 12z euro op does not help matters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 3, 2016 Share Posted December 3, 2016 14 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Monday looks like about an inch to me. I hope we get lucky though and get 2"+. Seeing all Mesos so juicy is a sign these go up to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 3, 2016 Share Posted December 3, 2016 5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Models are still very much up in the air mid week. 12z euro op does not help matters. At least it's a bit cooler and spits out a few flakes for us... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 3, 2016 Share Posted December 3, 2016 1 minute ago, weathafella said: At least it's a bit cooler and spits out a few flakes for us... Would be nice to have a low redevelop offshore, but at least it appears a cutter is looking less likely. Still can't rule it out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 3, 2016 Share Posted December 3, 2016 24 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: A pattern like 12/70 or 12/07 you can never predict in advance. The snow that is. Patterns like that have you walking the line. So you don't know if you are getting the goods until the events happen. I suppose that is true with all patterns but it is amplified in those types of patterns. In more iron clad setups we usually say "probably will cash in". In the 1970 patterns you have no idea. Yea...I meant not to expect the sensible result of 12/70. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 3, 2016 Share Posted December 3, 2016 GFS cutter turns into congrats DC and James on the Euro. Shows you the volatility in the pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 3, 2016 Share Posted December 3, 2016 I'll take a compromise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted December 3, 2016 Share Posted December 3, 2016 34 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: GFS cutter turns into congrats DC and James on the Euro. Shows you the volatility in the pattern. I approve of this post. More of that this winter. I'm just happy to see the northern tier and Canada's snow cover expand. Helps SNE and the MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 3, 2016 Share Posted December 3, 2016 49 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I'll take a compromise. Yeah. Seems reasonable at this time It will be fun tracking again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 3, 2016 Share Posted December 3, 2016 I would take a more suppressed track over an amplified track given that the cold will be present instead of warmth. Is the EURO close enough to Cape Cod to deliver the goods at hour 216-240? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 3, 2016 Share Posted December 3, 2016 The north Country has really cashed in lately and will continue to do so this week, but then the pattern shifts to SNE getting favorable spot for heavy snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 4, 2016 Share Posted December 4, 2016 1 hour ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: I would take a more suppressed track over an amplified track given that the cold will be present instead of warmth. Is the EURO close enough to Cape Cod to deliver the goods at hour 216-240? And exactly what does having the cold in place before hand have anything to do with a suppressed track vs amplified track? That's pure weenie nonsense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 4, 2016 Share Posted December 4, 2016 1 hour ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: The north Country has really cashed in lately and will continue to do so this week, but then the pattern shifts to SNE getting favorable spot for heavy snows. And what voodoo science is this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 4, 2016 Share Posted December 4, 2016 What are you talking about voodoo science Bob, the models are showing a favorable pattern for SNE snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 4, 2016 Share Posted December 4, 2016 3 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: What are you talking about voodoo science Bob, the models are showing a favorable pattern for SNE snows. You said a shift to SNE. 9 times out of 10 a favorable for snow in SNE is favorable for CNE and NNE. They are not mutually exclusive. Also you stated heavy spot for snows, which has no basis in science either given the snow climate for the month of December over the region. We may get lucky and cash in on a storm but I would not make any guarantees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 4, 2016 Share Posted December 4, 2016 Bob, you jerk lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 4, 2016 Share Posted December 4, 2016 Man I don't mean to sound like I am guaranteeing anything Bob, because I am not, I see what the models spew out as potentials and I go from there, the overwhelming point is that the models see the next two weeks as favorable pattern for snow in SNE and NNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 4, 2016 Share Posted December 4, 2016 5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Bob, you jerk lol I'm a dink. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 4, 2016 Share Posted December 4, 2016 All the major models show a potential strong miller B cyclogenesis with the primary dying in a favorable spot for snowfall along the coastline and the airmass that follows in the weekend next week looks extremely cold. Disturbance over NE MT around hour 96 is indeed interesting for this run, could be the impetus for the secondary cyclogenesis for our Thursday system. There is more separation between the lead shortwave and the secondary shortwave associated with Thursday's storm, right now that separation could mean separate storms as the cold front sweeps eastward off the East Coast. Right now that secondary shortwave energy could spark an anafrontal surface wave that brings snow to New England as front slides off the coast. Also +PNA ridging is showing up well on the 00z GFS. Secondary cyclogenesis taking place 12z Thursday December 8th southwest of Dukes County, MA 00z GFS is a rain to snow storm for the coastal plain of SNE, as storm deepens from a 7mb/6 hour rate to a 10mb/6hour rate within a 12 hour period. That is explosive deepening right over our region. Cold air rushes into the region as storm forms and moves through the region Just as our Thursday storm exits our next storm's energy enters the NW US coastline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 4, 2016 Share Posted December 4, 2016 2 hours ago, Baroclinic Zone said: I'm a dink. Voice of reason, Somebody has to be Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 4, 2016 Share Posted December 4, 2016 Next potential storm system out of the NW US has a high pressure over it as it moves eastward, this could be our snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 4, 2016 Share Posted December 4, 2016 10 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: 00z GFS is a rain to snow storm for the coastal plain of SNE, as storm deepens from a 7mb/6 hour rate to a 10mb/6hour rate within a 12 hour period. That is explosive deepening right over our region. Cold air rushes into the region as storm forms and moves through the region Blustery conditions after the rain ends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 4, 2016 Share Posted December 4, 2016 GFS has a Chicago Snowstorm at hour 168. 7 days out Chicago gets their storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 4, 2016 Share Posted December 4, 2016 Very much so Ray. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 4, 2016 Share Posted December 4, 2016 Confluence weakening ahead of our shortwave at hour 174. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 4, 2016 Share Posted December 4, 2016 The day 5 event is a classic Maine snowstorm; complete with model hallucinations along the way, as folks engage in a futile effort to will development sooner by 12 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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