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dryslot

NNE Fall Thread

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Okay eyewall, PF.  Ready for winter launch?   Sure looks good for Vermont.

Today I took the drone and went up the the Mount Washington Valley.  Met Alex.  Really nice guy.  We flew the drone over his 1500 elevation property.  Sweet views of Mount Washington and all the Whites.  Swung the drone around and faced west.  PF need your help.  On the horizon it looks like we could see Mansfield down to Camel's Hump.  To the right of Mansfield in the very distant haze there looks to be even a further mountain range.  Do you think we could see all the way to the Adirondacks?   Wonder if they are visible from the summit of Mt Washington?  Of course that is a much higher vantage point than the drone but further east too.  For some reason I have always been interested in how far one can see from heights.  Any thoughts.  Pics attached.

Mount Washington.jpg

West from BWoods zoom.jpg

West from BWoods.jpg

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Hey Gene, you might be seeing the Adirondacks but do you have a higher res version of it?  The line of sight from that location makes me wonder though as you'd be more north towards Plattsburgh, NY if its to the north of Mansfield.

If you look at the location of the drone and then where those hills might be, I wonder if you are looking at something in the Greens north of Mansfield?  I'd need to see a higher res version to really zoom in a bit more on it for sure.  There is a pretty decent ridgeline in northern NY that you can see from BTV that's beyond the PLB area.  Maybe that's it?  But unless it was right over Mansfield or south of Mansfield I don't think it could've been the high peaks of the Adirondacks.

For some reference I added the axis of best orographic forcing along the Greens and Whites from a west through north wind flow.  Easy to see why Alex sees the upslope he does.  He probably does even a little better than here on a pure northerly flow than this area.  Mansfield is a subtle pivot point in the Spine (if you draw a line from Jay Peak to Mansfield and then to Lincoln Peak at Sugarbush) which definitely helps out...it increases the chances for orographics by being able to upslope WSW through NNW in these types of events.  With a good NW to NNW flow though (like backside of a nor'easter or departing system in the Gulf of Maine) Alex cleans up with that geographic orientation.

Topo_upslope.jpg

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Well, the Winter Storm Watches in the mountains and mountain valleys of Northern and Central Vermont have been converted to the first Winter Storm Warnings of the season… and actually the first Winter Storm Warnings in quite some time around here based on what PF has been saying.  I’m sure he knowns the length of the Winter Storm Warning drought, and is presumably dancing a bit of a jig this morning.  The general call for accumulations 4 to 8 in the valleys and 8 to 14 inches in the mountains, and the accumulations maps and our point forecast here seem to generally jive with that.  Updated maps and text are below.

 

19NOV16A.jpg

 

19NOV16B.jpg

 

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...

As of 404 AM EST Saturday...Winter storm warnings are now in effect for the Saint Lawrence Valley...the northern Adirondacks...parts of north central Vermont...and the west slopes of the Green Mountains.

 

Snow levels begin to lower later tonight and Sunday as widespread precipitation associated with approaching upper low. Should see levels get down to around 1000 feet during the day on Sunday so valley rain with snow in the mountains. When the event really begins to take shape is Sunday night into Monday as the upper low moves northeast of the region and northwest flow aloft develops. This will bring colder air in...all the way down to the valley floors across the entire area overnight Sunday night through a good part of Monday. The northwest flow will also enhance upslope flow and with this flow pattern in place all the way through late on Monday...the mountains should see quite a bit of snow. Looking at 12-18 inches in the northern Adirondacks by late Monday and 8 to 14 inches for the west slopes of the Green Mountains. The Saint Lawrence Valley will also be looking at 8 to 12 inches of snow with the higher precipitation amounts expected and they being first in on the low level cold air. Over north central Vermont looking at 4 to 8 inches. Thus these areas have now been put into a winter storm warning. One item to keep an eye on is the Champlain Valley Monday morning with the potential for 1 to 3 inches of snow during the morning commute...which could have an impact despite the lesser snow amounts. Area may need to be placed in an advisory and will keep an eye on this potential. Areas in the warning will have difficult travel because the snow amounts and there will also be rather gusty winds at the higher elevations.

 

&&

 

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

As of 304 AM EST Saturday...Vertically stacked low pressure over Northern Maine Monday night will move very slowly east- northeastward into New Brunswick with continual moist NW flow over much of Northern NY and Vermont through Wednesday. Lingering snow showers will continue across the region into Tuesday early morning mainly along the Northern Greens and Adirondacks due to upslope forcing with about 1-3" but the lower valleys will still see some smaller amounts around a trace to 2 inches.

 

 

VTZ003-006-008-016>019-192100-

/O.UPG.KBTV.WS.A.0003.161120T1200Z-161122T0000Z/

/O.NEW.KBTV.WS.W.0003.161120T1200Z-161122T0000Z/

ORLEANS-LAMOILLE-WASHINGTON-EASTERN FRANKLIN-EASTERN CHITTENDEN-

EASTERN ADDISON-EASTERN RUTLAND-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF NEWPORT, JOHNSON, STOWE, MONTPELIER,

ENOSBURG FALLS, RICHFORD, UNDERHILL, BRISTOL, RIPTON,

EAST WALLINGFORD, AND KILLINGTON

345 AM EST SAT NOV 19 2016

 

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM SUNDAY TO 7 PM EST

MONDAY...

 

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BURLINGTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER

STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM

SUNDAY TO 7 PM EST MONDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN

EFFECT.

 

* LOCATIONS...NORTH CENTRAL VERMONT AND WESTERN SLOPES OF THE

  GREEN MOUNTAINS.

 

* HAZARD TYPES...MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL.

 

* ACCUMULATIONS...4 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW WITH 8 TO 14 INCHES ACROSS

  THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS.

 

* MAXIMUM SNOWFALL RATE...UP TO 1 INCH PER HOUR...ESPECIALLY

  SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

 

* TIMING...THIS WILL BE A LONG DURATION EVENT. RAIN WILL CHANGE

  TO SNOW SUNDAY MORNING, WITH SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ABOVE 1000

  FEET LIKELY DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. SNOW LEVELS DROP TO THE

  VALLEY FLOORS BY SUNDAY EVENING, WITH PERIODS OF SNOW

  CONTINUING SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

 

* IMPACTS...DIFFICULT TRAVEL CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS

  HIGHER ELEVATION POINTS. A SLOW COMMUTE IS EXPECTED AREAWIDE

  MONDAY MORNING.

 

* WINDS...WEST 5 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH.

 

* TEMPERATURES...HIGHS IN THE MID 30S. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S.

 

* VISIBILITIES...BELOW ONE HALF MILE AT TIMES.

 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

 

PERSONS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL VERMONT AND THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE

GREEN MOUNTAINS SHOULD TAKE THE NECESSARY ACTION AND PREPARE FOR

HEAVY SNOW THAT WILL IMPACT TRAVEL BEGINNING ON SUNDAY, BUT

ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

 

PLEASE STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...YOUR LOCAL MEDIA...OR

GO TO WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BURLINGTON FOR FURTHER UPDATES ON THIS

WEATHER SITUATION.

 

&&

 

$$

 

EVENSON

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12 hours ago, powderfreak said:

Hey Gene, you might be seeing the Adirondacks but do you have a higher res version of it?  The line of sight from that location makes me wonder though as you'd be more north towards Plattsburgh, NY if its to the north of Mansfield.

If you look at the location of the drone and then where those hills might be, I wonder if you are looking at something in the Greens north of Mansfield?  I'd need to see a higher res version to really zoom in a bit more on it for sure.  There is a pretty decent ridgeline in northern NY that you can see from BTV that's beyond the PLB area.  Maybe that's it?  But unless it was right over Mansfield or south of Mansfield I don't think it could've been the high peaks of the Adirondacks.

For some reference I added the axis of best orographic forcing along the Greens and Whites from a west through north wind flow.  Easy to see why Alex sees the upslope he does.  He probably does even a little better than here on a pure northerly flow than this area.  Mansfield is a subtle pivot point in the Spine (if you draw a line from Jay Peak to Mansfield and then to Lincoln Peak at Sugarbush) which definitely helps out...it increases the chances for orographics by being able to upslope WSW through NNW in these types of events.  With a good NW to NNW flow though (like backside of a nor'easter or departing system in the Gulf of Maine) Alex cleans up with that geographic orientation.

Topo_upslope.jpg

Thank you both! It's great to learn more about my area every day...

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2 minutes ago, dendrite said:

I have the next week off. I should come by your place one of these days too Alex. Heck, you could come by here too if you want to see the Davis setup.

Now that's the definition of a weenie trip. 

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1 hour ago, dendrite said:

I have the next week off. I should come by your place one of these days too Alex. Heck, you could come by here too if you want to see the Davis setup.

You are definitely welcome to! I love meeting people from the board. 

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PF (and others) - question. In trying to find out more about upslope in my area, I read in a few places that it tends to be more frequent and stronger at night. Is there any truth to that? Is it a local phenomenon or is it true of upslope in general? 

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1 hour ago, alex said:

PF (and others) - question. In trying to find out more about upslope in my area, I read in a few places that it tends to be more frequent and stronger at night. Is there any truth to that? Is it a local phenomenon or is it true of upslope in general? 

Alex--PF, Will, Scott had a disco on that in the ULL/Upslope thread ginxy started. just have to go back a page or two I think.

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1 hour ago, alex said:

PF (and others) - question. In trying to find out more about upslope in my area, I read in a few places that it tends to be more frequent and stronger at night. Is there any truth to that? Is it a local phenomenon or is it true of upslope in general? 

PF,  I'll add a question  to Alex's post and also post the drone video so you and others can get an idea of his geographic area.  First, thanks for answering about the views of the Adirondacks.  Bit of haze yesterday and I didn't have the drone taking hi res video so we will have to wait. 

Really enjoyed seeing Alex's property.  Taking the drone over to the Mount Washington area was a good excuse to stop by and introduced myself.  What a great location he has.  As you can see from the drone the land rises towards his property.  Then right at his house the land rises sharply to the south with the high Whites right there.  So upslope looks great at his 1500 foot elevation. .  He is also in a very flat area right on the Ammonoosuc River.   I would think raditional cooling is going to be insane.  I brought one of my thermometers and his weather station seems to be with a degree or so of accuracy.   With his permission here is the drone flight over his property.

I do have one question about synoptic storms and downslope.  Mount Washington and the Presidential Range are to the NE and E.  They are closer than the drone shot makes them look because of the wide angle lens.  With a NE wind in a storm would his area be shadowed?  How far downwind would shadowing go in a storm?  Just curious? 

 

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2 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

PF,  I'll add a question  to Alex's post and also post the drone video is you and others can get an idea of his geographic area.  First, thanks for answering about the views of the Adirondacks.  Bit of haze yesterday and I didn't have the drone taking hi res video so we will have to wait. 

Really enjoyed seeing Alex's property.  Taking the drone over to the Mount Washington area was a good excuse to stop by and introduced myself.  What a great location he has.  As you can see from the drone the land rises towards his property.  Then right at his house the land rises sharply to the south with the high Whites right there.  So upslope looks great at his 1500 foot elevation. .  He is also in a very flat area right on the Ammonoosuc River.   I would think raditional cooling is going to be insane.  I brought one of my thermometers and his weather station seems to be with a degree or so of accuracy.   With his permission here is the drone flight over his property.

I do have one question about synoptic storms and downslope.  Mount Washington and the Presidential Range are to the NE and E.  They are closer than the drone shot makes them look because of the wide angle lens.  With a NE wind in a storm would his area be shadowed?  How far downwind would shadowing go in a storm?  Just curious? 

 

I asked that same question a few weeks ago about the downsloping from the presidentials (dont think anyone answered?) I'm sure there would be some with 4k-6k peaks to his east. 

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Gotta hand it to ya, PF. If I were forecast to get 12-24inches, I'd be losing my mind (in a good way) You seem quite calm, cool, and collected. 

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Thanks for pointing that out, very interesting. Makes complete sense

1 hour ago, backedgeapproaching said:

Alex--PF, Will, Scott had a disco on that in the ULL/Upslope thread ginxy started. just have to go back a page or two I think.

 

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58 minutes ago, #NoPoles said:

Gotta hand it to ya, PF. If I were forecast to get 12-24inches, I'd be losing my mind (in a good way) You seem quite calm, cool, and collected. 

Well I'm sure not getting anywhere near that at home, haha.  I've seen enough of these to be excited for the ski resort though.  

I'm usually a skeptic to some degree as well until it happens.  These events are sure to throw some wild cards at us.  

Im also enjoying today's weather quite a bit.  I'm standing at 3,600ft right now at the Spruce Peak overlook in shorts and a t-shirt (it's that warm)...however the southerly flow is absolutely ripping up here.

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The storm seems generally on track with respect to this morning’s thoughts from the BTV NWS, and I’ve added the latest advisory and snow total maps below.  Of note on the advisories map is the expansion of Winter Storm Warnings to Southern Vermont.  The projected accumulations map was actually tapered back a bit in the Greens, but the totals mentioned in the Winter Storm Warning have stayed in the 4-8” range for the valleys and 10-14” range for the mountains.  The point forecast here suggests 3-9” through Monday night, with potentially more on Tuesday.

 

19NOV16C.jpg

19NOV16D.jpg

VTZ003-006-008-016>019-200900-

/O.CON.KBTV.WS.W.0003.161120T1200Z-161122T0000Z/

ORLEANS-LAMOILLE-WASHINGTON-EASTERN FRANKLIN-EASTERN CHITTENDEN-

EASTERN ADDISON-EASTERN RUTLAND-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF NEWPORT, JOHNSON, STOWE, MONTPELIER,

ENOSBURG FALLS, RICHFORD, UNDERHILL, BRISTOL, RIPTON,

EAST WALLINGFORD, AND KILLINGTON

300 PM EST SAT NOV 19 2016

 

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM SUNDAY TO

7 PM EST MONDAY...

 

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CONTINUES THE WINTER STORM WARNING

FOR HEAVY SNOW FROM 7 AM SUNDAY TO 7 PM EST MONDAY.

 

* LOCATIONS...NORTH CENTRAL VERMONT AND THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE

  GREEN MOUNTAINS.

 

* HAZARD TYPES...MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL.

 

* ACCUMULATIONS...4 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW WITH 8 TO 14 INCHES ABOVE

  2000 FEET.

 

* MAXIMUM SNOWFALL RATE...UP TO 1 INCH PER HOUR...ESPECIALLY

  SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

 

* TIMING...THIS WILL BE A LONG DURATION EVENT. RAIN WILL CHANGE TO

  SNOW THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY WITH SNOW LEVELS GRADUALLY

  LOWERING FROM NEAR SUMMIT LEVEL TO AROUND 1000 FEET BY DAYS

  END. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIKELY ABOVE 1000 FEET DURING

  THIS TIME. SNOW LEVELS DROP TO THE VALLEY FLOORS BY SUNDAY

  EVENING, WITH PERIODS OF SNOW CONTINUING SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH

  MONDAY.

 

* IMPACTS...DIFFICULT TRAVEL CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS HIGHER

  ELEVATIONS AND PASSES. A SLOW COMMUTE IS EXPECTED AREA WIDE

  MONDAY MORNING.

 

* WINDS...WEST 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH.

 

* TEMPERATURES...HIGHS ON SUNDAY IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40, THEN IN

  THE LOWER TO MID 30S ON MONDAY. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE 20S TO

  AROUND 30.

 

* VISIBILITIES...BELOW ONE HALF MILE AT TIMES.

 

$$

 

JMG

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I think tapering back a little is the way to go...going to be fun but the SFC low is progged to be subtly a little more west.  So it'll take a bit longer to develop the deep layer NW flow in VT.   That movement actually makes SVT/Berks more favorable in the moist NW flow.  The cyclonic circulation takes the best moisture initially from say NNY into SVT/Berks but we get going up north as the whole system moves NE a bit. 

NNY is going to get crushed, especially downwind of the lakes.

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I think tapering back a little is the way to go...going to be fun but the SFC low is progged to be subtly a little more west.  So it'll take a bit longer to develop the deep layer NW flow in VT.   That movement actually makes SVT/Berks more favorable in the moist NW flow.  The cyclonic circulation takes the best moisture initially from say NNY into SVT/Berks but we get going up north as the whole system moves NE a bit. 

NNY is going to get crushed, especially downwind of the lakes.



It will be a non event here for the most part but I still have my fingers crossed for the resorts. Should be a decent opening for you :).



Sent from my VS987 using Tapatalk

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53 minutes ago, eyewall said:

 


It will be a non event here for the most part but I still have my fingers crossed for the resorts. Should be a decent opening for you :).



Sent from my VS987 using Tapatalk
 

 

lol you know the deal in BTV.  Anything orographic or meso-scale is likely a non-event ;).

But you still may be surprised.  Froude numbers are blocked Sunday night before going over 1 for most of the day Monday.  You may get something in that wind shift low froude number time on Sunday night.

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lol you know the deal in BTV.  Anything orographic or meso-scale is likely a non-event ;).

But you still may be surprised.  Crouse numbers are blocked Sunday night before going over 1 for most of the day Monday.  You may get something in that wind shift low froude number time on Sunday night.



Here is to hoping but yeah that is true.



Sent from my VS987 using Tapatalk

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Looks like it just flipped to snow at the top of the quad....little later then GFS suggested but inline with higer res models. Absolutely crushes the spine between 5pm tonight and 7am tomorrow. 

 

 

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9 minutes ago, adk said:

Looks like it just flipped to snow at the top of the quad....little later then GFS suggested but inline with higer res models. Absolutely crushes the spine between 5pm tonight and 7am tomorrow. 

 

The Lincoln Peak Snow Cam shows a changeover around 6 AM this morning from what I could see, so the snow line should be working its way downward.  Unfortunately the Bolton Valley Web Cam at ~2,100’ is offline, but a look at Stowe’s Gondolier Cam at ~1,600’ suggests that snow is already starting to accumulate on Gondolier at around the 2,000’ mark.

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The latest BTV NWS advisories map doesn’t have any huge changes to the higher level warnings etc., but a Hazardous Weather Outlook has been added outside the Winter Storm Warning areas to cover the potential for a slushy 1-3” accumulation.  There’s been a notable bump upward in the projected accumulations on the BTV NWS map in some areas along the Green Mountain Spine.  We’re in the 6-8” shading now, more in line with the 6-12” totals in our point forecast through Tuesday.

 

20NOV16A.jpg

20NOV16B.jpg

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