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1900hurricane

WPAC, Indian Ocean, and Southern Hemisphere Tropical Cyclones

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While we were all watching Matthew, a super typhoon erupted over the southwestern Japanese island chain (Chaba) and it is now in the East China Sea heading due north (center 915 mb, peak winds 105 kt gusting 150 kt). It more or less missed Okinawa but nailed a smaller island in the chain, no casualties reported (have posted a link). It will weaken to about cat-2 before skimming northern Kyushu and coastal north Honshu as well as outer parts of South Korea. 

http://www3.nhk.or.jp/nhkworld/en/news/20161004_07/

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The current westpac pattern is highly favorable for strong, lower latitude, west-tracking typhoons.  Luzon is going to have a rough week, as may the Hainan to Hong Kong region.  Cat 3 typhoon Sarika is hitting today.  As the above image shows, the next one could be worse.

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Haima may have the highest ceiling of any storm so far this year, which is saying something considering how intense Meranti became. Haima is only now emerging north of 10*N and has the highest heat content in the basin to play with. If there is a flaw with the environmental conditions, I haven't found it yet. A banding eye is has become apparent on visible imagery, and this system may be about to go nuts.

Here's a morning True Color Reproduction image, showing Typhoon Sarika over Luzon to the west and Haima waiting in the wings to the east.

9eb3Y5b.jpg

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another beautiful picture (water vapor channel) of these two terrible storms. Typhoon Sarika made landfall today on Luzon Island, Philippines. It may have brought a large amount of flooding, but I did not check news sources about this. Typhoon Haima takes up the center of this image, with cirrus outflow extending from the equator to 20deg north

7hCElhT.gif

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4 hours ago, hawkeye_wx said:

Satellite suggests, and microwave confirms, a concentric eyewall structure.

 

Didn't waste much time to get to the early stages of an ERC. Could be bad timing given how Haima still has 2 days before coming close to land.

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Josh (iCyclone) is headed to the Philippines to chase Haima.  The eastern coastal region of Luzon is nothing but mountains and dense rain forest, though, so not ideal for chasing.

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8 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

Josh (iCyclone) is headed to the Philippines to chase Haima.  The eastern coastal region of Luzon is nothing but mountains and dense rain forest, though, so not ideal for chasing.

should be interesting for him.  i think his only luzon chase so far was NARI 2013.

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1) this cyclone likely will be a nonevent, assuming it makes landfall on the effectively unpopulated coast of Luzon.  Weather porn in the best way.

2) surprised this has gotten so strong with what looks like middling ventilation on the north side of the storm

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5 minutes ago, Drz1111 said:

1) this cyclone likely will be a nonevent, assuming it makes landfall on the effectively unpopulated coast of Luzon.  Weather porn in the best way.

2) surprised this has gotten so strong with what looks like middling ventilation on the north side of the storm

nonevent in terms of what?  even if the eyewall crosses the coast in an area of sparse population the circulation is large and it will likely dump a ton of rain, causing flooding and mudslides.  i wouldn't downplay it yet.

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44 minutes ago, cmasty1978 said:

nonevent in terms of what?  even if the eyewall crosses the coast in an area of sparse population the circulation is large and it will likely dump a ton of rain, causing flooding and mudslides.  i wouldn't downplay it yet.

Flooding and mudslides that affect who?  This is unpopulated coast for a reason.

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9 minutes ago, Drz1111 said:

Flooding and mudslides that affect who?  This is unpopulated coast for a reason.

it's not going to stop at the sparsely populated coast.  i shouldnt have to explain that tropical cyclones have inland effects, especially when we consider mountainous terrain and poor people. this is TC's 101.  

 

 

 

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it's not going to stop at the sparsely populated coast.  i shouldnt have to explain that tropical cyclones have inland effects, especially when we consider mountainous terrain and poor people. this is TC's 101.  

The forecasted location of landfall receives more severe landfalling cyclones than any place on Earth. That combined with the mountainous terrain of the region probably has a lot to do with the far less densely populated geography as compared to the rest of the Philippines. However, there are small villages and townships still located along the coastline of northeastern Luzon. Hopefully the center makes landfall where one of those villages aren't located.

Additionally, you are correct about the threat of inland flooding. This typhoon has a powerful circulation with a very low pressure. As it pushes west, it will be a big threat to higher populated regions of central and western Luzon. That risk can certainly not be downplayed.

Edit: Divilacan Bay has several small coastal townships that are the closest to the current projected landfall point. That area was also blasted by Super Typhoon Megi in 2010. Inland flooding from that typhoon displaced 200,000 people as it moved across Luzon.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Divilacan,_Isabela

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maconacon,_Isabela

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In my opinion, it looks like it has a 40nm wide eye and -80C temps in the CDO region, all the way around the eye. I think there might have been some -90C temps in the CDO earlier today.

this is from the Typhoon Haima JTWC discussion #17.

Quote
THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 145 KNOTS IS BASED ON RECENT 
DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T7.0 TO T7.5 (140 TO 155 KNOTS) AND A 
SATCON ESTIMATE OF 140 KNOTS. 

 

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I think they might be a little too north in their forecast track. Of course it could gain a more WNW motion between now and landfall, but it really looks to be bullseyeing the mouth of the Palanan River.


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Colorado State/CIRA web page for Typhoon Haima. You can click on archive, that is a link underneath each current picture. If you want to look at how this storm developed, pick begin and end frames for different types of satellite loops. note: enhanced IR images should give you lots of frames to loop.  You could also view individual pictures since the beginning of the storm.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/storm.asp?storm_identifier=WP252016

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It appears another eyewall replacement cycle may be on the way.  Satellite shows the eye steadily shrinking over the last few hours, and a microwave image from an hour ago shows a distinct outer band.

20161018.2257.f18.x.91h.25WHAIMA.145kts-

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