WPAC, Indian Ocean, and Southern Hemisphere Tropical Cyclones

[olafminesaw]

1 hour ago, Chinook said:

Typhoon Dolphin (12W) is expected to get to 165kt by the JTWC. (July 31st)

Wow! That has to be near a record max forecast for them at a 3 day lead. Some question marks around intensity for the moment though as it appears to be starting an ERC

[Chinook]

I believe Supertyphoon Dolphin was up to 125kt/145mph today but is now down to 120kt/138mph. This is from about 12 hrs ago when the overall presentation looked the best

 

[vortex95]

3 hours ago, Chinook said:

I believe Supertyphoon Dolphin was up to 125kt/145mph today but is now down to 120kt/138mph. This is from about 12 hrs ago when the overall presentation looked the best

 

W/ that sat imagery I bet it was stronger than 125 kt.  Pinhole eyes often suggest higher, but Dvorak has nothing to account for eye diameters or tight systems, esp. when the inner core is tiny. We generally underestimate the most intense TCs and small TCs from satellite estimate.

[olafminesaw]

what an evolution! 

 

 

 

[GaWx]

 “Typhoon Dolphin is expected to strengthen into a violent storm as it moves towards Japan's remote Minami-Torishima Island, the Japan Meteorological Agency said on Wednesday.”

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Minamitorishima

[NorthHillsWx]

Absolutely wild comeback this morning. Textbook ERC and, under pristine conditions it didn't take long go nuclear for a second time in 2 days. What a specimen 

[JakkelWx]

Buzzsaw powerhouse

[Torchageddon]

With how fast its CDO buzzsaw'ed and cooled this will present some of the crazier inner dynamics we've seen in some time. The eye temp just warmed from -5C to +20C in less than 2 hours.

[Chinook]

JTWC says it is at 130kt, a strong category 4 (supertyphoon) possibly rising to 155kt, which is much above the category-5 critera.

[cptcatz]

There's a real chance of a cat 5 hitting Shanghai. I don't really know anything about Asian typhoon history... Would this be unprecedented in that area? Would that cause the same kind of catastrophic damage as a cat 5 hitting a major US city?

[vortex95]

10 hours ago, cptcatz said:

There's a real chance of a cat 5 hitting Shanghai. I don't really know anything about Asian typhoon history... Would this be unprecedented in that area? Would that cause the same kind of catastrophic damage as a cat 5 hitting a major US city?

Since Dolphin has already peaked twice and another ERC imminent it seems, the storm will continue to expand in size overall, and it may undergo another ERC.  All along, it is slowly gaining latitude.  What this means is that despite the very low pressures shown once it gets to the RODN and ZSSS areas, the storm will almost certainly expanded even more w/ a very large eye.  The ECMWF shows this well.  Take a look at its 222 hr (yes, I know this is way out, but model agreement is excellent as to the large-scale pattern as to Dolphin's  track).  The eye is about 120 nm in diameter!  This is not unreasonable and has happened many times for long-tracked TC in the NWPAC.  STY Winnie in 1997 is among the most classic examples.  It had a 200 nm eye when it approached China!   See attachments.

The point being once a TC has maxed out in the deep tropics, it is very difficult for it to attain that same kind of intense status again b/c 1) ERCs expand the storm progressively, and 2) as you gain latitude, Coriolis increases which results in a decrease in max tangential wind speeds and acts to expand the TC.  So the TC often has the same net energy as a Cat 5, but it is much more spread out, so winds may only be Cat 3.

Also, Dolphin may become an annular hurricane, which is a stable status where the eye is quite large, and there is almost no banding.  It looks like a truck tire w/ stark symmetry.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Annular_tropical_cyclone

TC Winnie 1997
https://x.com/WxPatel/status/1416591836504862720
 

[Chinook]

Today's satellite of Supertyphoon Dolphin (135kt by JTWC)

[olafminesaw]

ERC #3 very much under way. Any idea what the record is for most ERCs? Gotta think four would be near impossible 

[vpbob21]

Don't really know how to look this up but I have to think with another 9-10 days before a potential landfall, this could be one of the highest ACE producing storms on record.

[vortex95]

1 hour ago, vpbob21 said:

Don't really know how to look this up but I have to think with another 9-10 days before a potential landfall, this could be one of the highest ACE producing storms on record.

Highest global ACE TCs
1)  Ioke 2006          85.3
2)  Freddy 2023        83.3
3)  San Ciriaco 1899   73.6
4)  John 1994          70.6
5)  Ivan 2004          70.4
5)  Paka 1997          70.2
6)  Irma 2017          64.9
7)  Isabel 2003        63.3
8)  Rita 1972          62.9
9)  Fico 1978          62.8
10) Fengshen 2002      61.2

Bavi's ACE from this year ACE is 51.4.

[Nomz]

Pretty telling that for Dolphin the Google model has almost zero landfalling C3s, minimal c1-2s, and a majority of landfalling TSs.

[vortex95]

94W E of the Philippines is clearly a TD, if not a min TS.  LLCC is well-defined and core convection is persistent.  JTWC does not even acknowledge it as "low" for a chance of development, probably b/c the models don't do anything w/ it, but so what?  It is what is in the here and now, and so what if it exists only for a short time as a TC?
 

[Chinook]

Supertyphoon Dolphin, almost the same as last night, 130kt as per JTWC

[vortex95]

Looks like Dolphin is ready to form a huge eye.  Several hours ago, I got about 20 nm for a eye diameter.  Based on what I see on EIR now, the new larger eye is going be be close to 60 nm!
 

[vortex95]

Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) products that give very detailed surface wind profiles for TCs.  Click on the storm you want and then "profile plots" for the max winds in each quadrant and RMW text output, among other things.

https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/socd/mecb/sar/sarwinds_tropical.php

 

[Windspeed]

Dolphin is evolving into a Caterpillar 797 tire..

[olafminesaw]

New outer eyewall forming ~250 miles wide. Going for the record?

[vortex95]

2 hours ago, olafminesaw said:

New outer eyewall forming ~250 miles wide. Going for the record?

It has at least 6 days before landfall. so a lot of time to form a giant eye.

[Windspeed]

It's pretty fascinating thermal dynamics at play with Dolphin. The system remains in relatively low shear. It has already gone through numerous EWRCs. The typhoon has morphed from a deep, heavily banded system to one of multiple concentric rings that tend to hinder the core. Yet, shear should remain light. It will be moving across another degree Celsius or two of higher heat content. It will be interesting to see if Dolphin can reestablish enough intense core convection to tighten its gradient. It most likely will not reattain super typhoon status again. But it may have another period of strengthening. We shall see...

[vortex95]

One thing for future reference.  We have so many models now to chose from, and recently I had been looking at the ICON model.  I've been watching it for the past several days, and it has a clear high bias for TC intensity in Dolphin's case.  It tends to initialize the storm too low pressure and intensify it to the 880s once near China.  That doesn't make much sense given how Dolphin keeps expanding from ERCs and its large eye already.  And also it continues to gain latitude.  Empirical observations over time show that TCs almost never regain their former intense "glory" after their initial first intense peak (often w/ a pinhole eye).

So keep the ICON in mind for this b/c you know how some will pick the model that shows the absolute worst, and run w/ that! 

I still would like to see how the ICON handles long-tracked systems in other basins.  
 

[Torchageddon]

7 hours ago, Windspeed said:

It's pretty fascinating thermal dynamics at play with Dolphin. The system remains in relatively low shear. It has already gone through numerous EWRCs. The typhoon has morphed from a deep, heavily banded system to one of multiple concentric rings that tend to hinder the core. Yet, shear should remain light. It will be moving across another degree Celsius or two of higher heat content. It will be interesting to see if Dolphin can reestablish enough intense core convection to tighten its gradient. It most likely will not reattain super typhoon status again. But it may have another period of strengthening. We shall see...

I'm enjoying this Dolphin as the setup is fairly rum. If an eye size is nearing the top percentile I typically take the under but that means the same size remains or an awk transition to a smaller eye. I chuckle watching that wobbly lug of an eye saunter on for days. Those dry air slots are legendary like a whole moon crescent could fit in there 

[vortex95]

2 hours ago, Torchageddon said:

I'm enjoying this Dolphin as the setup is fairly rum. If an eye size is nearing the top percentile I typically take the under but that means the same size remains or an awk transition to a smaller eye. I chuckle watching that wobbly lug of an eye saunter on for days. Those dry air slots are legendary like a whole moon crescent could fit in there 

Dolphin appears to be en route to a very large eye.  Inner eyewall is quite thin on W side.  Not sure if drier air has got entrained into the W quad of the system or it is artifact of the next ERC.  Either way, a lot of time still for this TC to evolve further, and no reason to think it will not end up being a "donut!"

[Torchageddon]

5 hours ago, vortex95 said:

Dolphin appears to be en route to a very large eye.  Inner eyewall is quite thin on W side.  Not sure if drier air has got entrained into the W quad of the system or it is artifact of the next ERC.  Either way, a lot of time still for this TC to evolve further, and no reason to think it will not end up being a "donut!"

Its crazy inner dynamics of scything through its own eye at 10z to work out dry air I guess but that lobe got absorbed back into the eye anyways! Deep convection rebuilding around the careworn eye now and slightly larger.