WPAC, Indian Ocean, and Southern Hemisphere Tropical Cyclones

[olafminesaw]

1 hour ago, Chinook said:

Typhoon Dolphin (12W) is expected to get to 165kt by the JTWC. (July 31st)

Wow! That has to be near a record max forecast for them at a 3 day lead. Some question marks around intensity for the moment though as it appears to be starting an ERC

[Chinook]

I believe Supertyphoon Dolphin was up to 125kt/145mph today but is now down to 120kt/138mph. This is from about 12 hrs ago when the overall presentation looked the best

 

[vortex95]

3 hours ago, Chinook said:

I believe Supertyphoon Dolphin was up to 125kt/145mph today but is now down to 120kt/138mph. This is from about 12 hrs ago when the overall presentation looked the best

 

W/ that sat imagery I bet it was stronger than 125 kt.  Pinhole eyes often suggest higher, but Dvorak has nothing to account for eye diameters or tight systems, esp. when the inner core is tiny. We generally underestimate the most intense TCs and small TCs from satellite estimate.

[olafminesaw]

what an evolution! 

 

 

 

[GaWx]

 “Typhoon Dolphin is expected to strengthen into a violent storm as it moves towards Japan's remote Minami-Torishima Island, the Japan Meteorological Agency said on Wednesday.”

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Minamitorishima

[NorthHillsWx]

Absolutely wild comeback this morning. Textbook ERC and, under pristine conditions it didn't take long go nuclear for a second time in 2 days. What a specimen 

[JakkelWx]

Buzzsaw powerhouse

[Torchageddon]

With how fast its CDO buzzsaw'ed and cooled this will present some of the crazier inner dynamics we've seen in some time. The eye temp just warmed from -5C to +20C in less than 2 hours.

[Chinook]

JTWC says it is at 130kt, a strong category 4 (supertyphoon) possibly rising to 155kt, which is much above the category-5 critera.

[cptcatz]

There's a real chance of a cat 5 hitting Shanghai. I don't really know anything about Asian typhoon history... Would this be unprecedented in that area? Would that cause the same kind of catastrophic damage as a cat 5 hitting a major US city?

[vortex95]

10 hours ago, cptcatz said:

There's a real chance of a cat 5 hitting Shanghai. I don't really know anything about Asian typhoon history... Would this be unprecedented in that area? Would that cause the same kind of catastrophic damage as a cat 5 hitting a major US city?

Since Dolphin has already peaked twice and another ERC imminent it seems, the storm will continue to expand in size overall, and it may undergo another ERC.  All along, it is slowly gaining latitude.  What this means is that despite the very low pressures shown once it gets to the RODN and ZSSS areas, the storm will almost certainly expanded even more w/ a very large eye.  The ECMWF shows this well.  Take a look at its 222 hr (yes, I know this is way out, but model agreement is excellent as to the large-scale pattern as to Dolphin's  track).  The eye is about 120 nm in diameter!  This is not unreasonable and has happened many times for long-tracked TC in the NWPAC.  STY Winnie in 1997 is among the most classic examples.  It had a 200 nm eye when it approached China!   See attachments.

The point being once a TC has maxed out in the deep tropics, it is very difficult for it to attain that same kind of intense status again b/c 1) ERCs expand the storm progressively, and 2) as you gain latitude, Coriolis increases which results in a decrease in max tangential wind speeds and acts to expand the TC.  So the TC often has the same net energy as a Cat 5, but it is much more spread out, so winds may only be Cat 3.

Also, Dolphin may become an annular hurricane, which is a stable status where the eye is quite large, and there is almost no banding.  It looks like a truck tire w/ stark symmetry.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Annular_tropical_cyclone

TC Winnie 1997
https://x.com/WxPatel/status/1416591836504862720