WPAC, Indian Ocean, and Southern Hemisphere Tropical Cyclones

[olafminesaw]

1 hour ago, Chinook said:

Typhoon Dolphin (12W) is expected to get to 165kt by the JTWC. (July 31st)

Wow! That has to be near a record max forecast for them at a 3 day lead. Some question marks around intensity for the moment though as it appears to be starting an ERC

[Chinook]

I believe Supertyphoon Dolphin was up to 125kt/145mph today but is now down to 120kt/138mph. This is from about 12 hrs ago when the overall presentation looked the best

 

[vortex95]

3 hours ago, Chinook said:

I believe Supertyphoon Dolphin was up to 125kt/145mph today but is now down to 120kt/138mph. This is from about 12 hrs ago when the overall presentation looked the best

 

W/ that sat imagery I bet it was stronger than 125 kt.  Pinhole eyes often suggest higher, but Dvorak has nothing to account for eye diameters or tight systems, esp. when the inner core is tiny. We generally underestimate the most intense TCs and small TCs from satellite estimate.

[olafminesaw]

what an evolution! 

 

 

 

[GaWx]

 “Typhoon Dolphin is expected to strengthen into a violent storm as it moves towards Japan's remote Minami-Torishima Island, the Japan Meteorological Agency said on Wednesday.”

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Minamitorishima

[NorthHillsWx]

Absolutely wild comeback this morning. Textbook ERC and, under pristine conditions it didn't take long go nuclear for a second time in 2 days. What a specimen 

[JakkelWx]

Buzzsaw powerhouse

[Torchageddon]

With how fast its CDO buzzsaw'ed and cooled this will present some of the crazier inner dynamics we've seen in some time. The eye temp just warmed from -5C to +20C in less than 2 hours.

[Chinook]

JTWC says it is at 130kt, a strong category 4 (supertyphoon) possibly rising to 155kt, which is much above the category-5 critera.

[cptcatz]

There's a real chance of a cat 5 hitting Shanghai. I don't really know anything about Asian typhoon history... Would this be unprecedented in that area? Would that cause the same kind of catastrophic damage as a cat 5 hitting a major US city?