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WPAC, Indian Ocean, and Southern Hemisphere Tropical Cyclones


1900hurricane
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Sinlaku's eyewall looks like it's coming right at Saipan and Tinian.

I'm not sure if Extreme Wind Warnings can be issued for the Northern Mariana Islands (I know they can, and have, been issued for Guam), but the situation appears as if it would warrant an EWW once the eyewall gets closer.

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9 hours ago, Sydney Claridge said:

The eyewall should start hitting land within the next two hours or so. This is one dangerous storm.

I wonder how good typhoon preparedness is in the Northern Mariana Islands, especially when it comes to a direct hit?

The Mariana islands gets just about as many high end typhoons as anywhere else I nthe world. Saipan took a direct hit from a cat 5 back in 2018. 

I am guessing that Saipan didn't get much above cat 2 winds from this, with maybe some higher gusts. Good timing with the ERC. 

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On 4/14/2026 at 4:35 PM, patrick05 said:

SPN reports had a couple hours of missing wind data.. this was the highest I could find the last 12 hours

METAR PGSN 141154Z AUTO 06071G113KT

I heard that a couple of days ago. SUPER Typhoon in April? Are the sea temperatures high enough for that? The temperatures are at a minimum in March.

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Wikipedia has the following up on Sinlaku’s article, based on sources like the Red Cross. It sounds bad.

Sinlaku caused catastrophic destruction across the Northern Mariana Islands, particularly on Saipan and Tinian. With sustained winds reaching 150 mph (240 km/h), the storm demolished numerous wooden and tin-roofed homes and caused significant roof failures in commercial buildings.[36] The entire electrical grid on both islands collapsed, and toppled communication towers left residents without mobile or internet services for an extended period.[37]

The storm's slow movement across the archipelago resulted in intense rainfall—exceeding 20 inches (51 cm) in some areas—and severe flash flooding.[38] In residential districts, winds were powerful enough to flip vehicles and stack them on top of one another, while many concrete homes suffered from water seepage through every crevice. Critical facilities, including Northern Marianas College, faced fresh setbacks as buildings still being repaired from previous storms were battered again.[39]

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I heard that a couple of days ago. SUPER Typhoon in April? Are the sea temperatures high enough for that? The temperatures are at a minimum in March.

Surface temps weren’t that impressive 28/29c but OHC was high enough as warm water extended deep. It also reached MPI as the atmospheric environment was exceptional.


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  • 2 months later...

There's an Extreme Wind Warning in effect for Rota now:

Extreme Wind Warning
MPC100-052030-
/O.NEW.PGUM.EW.W.0010.260705T1833Z-260705T2030Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Extreme Wind Warning
National Weather Service Tiyan GU
433 AM ChST Mon Jul 6 2026

The National Weather Service in Tiyan has issued a

* Extreme Wind Warning for...
  Rota...

* Until 630 AM ChST.

* At 433 AM ChST, Doppler radar indicated catastrophic winds
  associated with Super Typhoon Bavi (09W) approaching from the east,
  are imminent over the entirety of Rota. THIS IS AN EXTREMELY
  DANGEROUS AND LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION! TAKE COVER NOW! Venturing
  outside can result in DEATH from flying projectiles. Unreinforced
  structures will be destroyed. Utility poles and associated power
  lines will be down, posing a risk to life.

* Locations impacted include...
  Sinapalo, Songsong, Annex F, Tenetu, I Chenchon, Liyu, Ginalangan
  (Chudan), Taimama, Tatgua, Matpo, Gampapa, As Niebes (Nieves),
  Talo, Makmak, Agatasi (Payapai), Lempanai, Gayaugan (Kaan), Gagani,
  Mananana and Finata.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Widespread destructive winds in excess of 150 mph are expected.

TAKE COVER NOW! Move immediately to an interior room in your shelter.
Take action now to protect your life!

The safest place to be during catastrophic typhoon conditions is in a
reinforced interior room away from windows. Get under a table or
other piece of sturdy furniture. Use mattresses, blankets or pillows
to cover your head and body. Remain in place through the passage of
these life-threatening conditions.

&&

LAT...LON 1417 14513 1419 14515 1423 14523 1422 14529
      1421 14530 1419 14531 1415 14530 1414 14529
      1414 14528 1413 14525 1410 14523 1409 14521
      1409 14517 1410 14515 1409 14513 1409 14512
      1411 14510 1413 14510
TIME...MOT...LOC 1825Z 0DEG 0KT 1416 14522

$$

EM


This has to be one of the strongest, if not the strongest, worded EWW I've ever seen. If Super Typhoon Bavi were a hurricane hitting the U.S. Atlantic/Gulf coast, it would be the second-strongest on record to make landfall with that 180 mph maximum sustained wind (between the 1935 Labor Day hurricane and Camille). I'm not sure what the strongest tropical cyclones to impact U.S. territories as a whole are, and where Super Typhoon Bavi would fall on such a list, but assuming it makes landfall on Rota (provided that the center crosses the island, which seems quite likely at this point, although you can get eyewall impacts without a proper "landfall"), Bavi would have to be among the strongest.

I'm over here picturing widespread damage equivalent to an EF-3 to EF-4 tornado (if not EF-5 when considering gusts) across Rota when this is all over... God help them. It's a small island entirely surrounded by warm ocean, so there's no land to weaken this typhoon.

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guam peak wind 83 kt 

pressure 970.5mb

PGUA 052355Z AUTO 24043G64KT M1/8SM R06R/0100V0200FT FG VV009 26/25 A2872 RMK AO2 PK WND 26083/39 LTG DSNT N CIG 006V009 SLP715 T02600253 10260 20253 55036 PWINO $

 

PGUA 060145Z AUTO 23058G78KT 1/8SM R24R/0400V0800FT FG SCT006 OVC014 25/24 A2882 RMK AO2 CIG 005 RWY24L PRESRR SLP749 PWINO $

 

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Just by going by sat imagery alone and a very clear and large eye, the centroid of the eye looks like it passed about 6 nm N of the N tip of Rota using EIR.  VIS is tougher b/c you have mesovorts in within the eye rotating around one another.  Each mesovort has its own pressure minimum, and one of those may have crossed Rota.  It will be very interesting to see the pressure measurements on Rota b/c getting such measurement for a super typhoon at its peak is rare.
 

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