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I'll see you in September

J Paul Gordon

By J Paul Gordon,
in New England

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moneypitmike

moneypitmike

Posted
Posted
15 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

The slow step down has begun, US Open week is mostly always hot, then some hot September days but you can feel the change strongly now.

 

Even if it's it gets more mild after the cool down next weekend, the very perceptible shortening of days (nearly 3 minutes/day for the next month) and steadily lengthening shadows assure us that indeed summer is done.  Welcome met fall.

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Isotherm

Isotherm

Posted
Posted

Daylight loss aside, the pattern is such that it will continue to feel much like summer as we progress into mid September. Solid string of positive SOI dailies indicative of large scale east --> west flow, low frequency tropical forcing in the WPAC, and upper level convergence signal propagating ewd into the central tropical Pacific by week 2. These larger scale alterations should aid the development / retrogression of the mid-level ridge south of AK in the Pacific, thereby inducing the downstream trough amplification in the Rockies/PAC NW, and concomitant E US ridge expansion. 

Very conducive pattern as currently progged on the ensembles for a very hot Labor Day-9/10 period; not merely the run of the mill +1 SD warmth we've been seeing as of late, but a potential anomalous heat stretch in that September 5th-10th period. 

Some of my analogs for this summer, such as 1988 and 1983, also produced some impressive late season heat, so there is historical support in conjunction w/ latest global indicators and model guidance.

Overall, I'm not really seeing any perceivable indication of protracted autumn temperatures in the Northeast. The possibility exists for a very hot second week of September, and thereafter, a proclivity for the maintenance of the SE ridge appears reasonable. 

This summer has - heretofore - generally been devoid of impressive/widespread > +20c 850mb pulses into the Northeast; however, Sept 5+ could produce such an event if the ridge/trough orientation evolves as modelled. Would not be surprised to see 100F at DCA once again with mid-upper 90s up the I-95 corridor.

The second week of September should feature a classic looking Nina / low AAM regime w/ the mid latitude ridging south of AK, strong vortex north of Greenland, and corresponding/teleconnecting trough and ridge in the West and East respectively (does this pattern look familiar? --> December 2015?).

 

8wcegj.gif

 

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Baroclinic Zone

Baroclinic Zone

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, J Paul Gordon said:

Hmmm....looks like my thread got hijacked after all! 

So cool spell followed by more heat, but decline in solar angle and length of daylight guarantee a long term cool down. Sounds like fall is coming. 6-10 looks cooler and still dry.

 

610day.01.gif

Yeah, I merged the 2 threads.  They both seemed to be serving the same purpose.

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Isotherm said:

Daylight loss aside, the pattern is such that it will continue to feel much like summer as we progress into mid September. Solid string of negative SOI dailies indicative of large scale east --> west flow, low frequency tropical forcing in the WPAC, and upper level convergence signal propagating ewd into the central tropical Pacific by week 2. These larger scale alterations should aid the development / retrogression of the mid-level ridge south of AK in the Pacific, thereby inducing the downstream trough amplification in the Rockies/PAC NW, and concomitant E US ridge expansion. 

Very conducive pattern as currently progged on the ensembles for a very hot Labor Day-9/10 period; not merely the run of the mill +1 SD warmth we've been seeing as of late, but a potential anomalous heat stretch in that September 5th-10th period. 

Some of my analogs for this summer, such as 1988 and 1983, also produced some impressive late season heat, so there is historical support in conjunction w/ latest global indicators and model guidance.

Overall, I'm not really seeing any perceivable indication of protracted autumn temperatures in the Northeast. The possibility exists for a very hot second week of September, and thereafter, a proclivity for the maintenance of the SE ridge appears reasonable. 

This summer has - heretofore - generally been devoid of impressive/widespread > +20c 850mb pulses into the Northeast; however, Sept 5+ could produce such an event if the ridge/trough orientation evolves as modelled. Would not be surprised to see 100F at DCA once again with mid-upper 90s up the I-95 corridor.

The second week of September should feature a classic looking Nina / low AAM regime w/ the mid latitude ridging south of AK, strong vortex north of Greenland, and corresponding/teleconnecting trough and ridge in the West and East respectively (does this pattern look familiar? --> December 2015?).

 

8wcegj.gif

 

Under the hood up here in New England just doesn't seem too unusual for September AN but typical September variances

FCST
Hour 		Valid
Time 		Max
Temp °F 		Min
Temp °F 		Td
°F 		10m 
Wind mph 		925mb
Wind mph 		850mb
Wind mph 		Total
Precip(") 		Conv.
Precip(") 		500-1000
THKNS 		500mb
Height 		500mb
Temp °C 		850mb
Temp °C 		925mb
Temp °C 		MSLP
mb 		Total
Cloud Cover 		850mb
Td(°C)
192 Sun 09/04 06Z 56 ° 49 ° 43 ° N 4 N 13 NNW 13 0.00 0.00 554 574 -12 ° 4 ° 9 ° 1023 40 % -6 °
204 Sun 09/04 18Z 68 ° 56 ° 57 ° NNE 4 N 7 NNW 7 0.00 0.00 555 575 -13 ° 5 ° 11 ° 1024 31 % -2 °
216 Mon 09/05 06Z 54 ° 47 ° 27 ° E 2 E 2 NNE 4 0.00 0.00 555 578 -13 ° 6 ° 11 ° 1027 4 % -1 °
228 Mon 09/05 18Z 71 ° 57 ° 42 ° SE 2 SSE 2 CALM 0.00 0.00 561 585 -10 ° 6 ° 12 ° 1027 0 % 2 °
240 Tue 09/06 06Z 59 ° 54 ° 31 ° S 4 SW 18 WSW 9 0.00 0.00 563 586 -9 ° 9 ° 12 ° 1026 0 % 4 °
252 Tue 09/06 18Z 70 ° 54 ° 58 ° SSW 11 SSW 22 WSW 25 0.00 0.00 565 585 -9 ° 11 ° 14 ° 1023 18 % 6 °
264 Wed 09/07 06Z 72 ° 65 ° 62 ° SSW 11 SW 36 W 25 0.00 0.00 567 583 -11 ° 14 ° 17 ° 1018 58 % 9 °
276 Wed 09/07 18Z 77 ° 66 ° 72 ° WSW 7 W 13 W 16 0.02 0.01 571 585 -8 ° 15 ° 19 ° 1016 52 % 10 °
288 Thu 09/08 06Z 79 ° 64 ° 61 ° NNW 2 ENE 9 WNW 4 0.07 0.07 570 586 -8 ° 13 ° 17 ° 1019 6 % 10 °
300 Thu 09/08 18Z 77 ° 62 ° 64 ° ENE 4 E 4 CALM 0.00 0.00 571 588 -7 ° 14 ° 17 ° 1019 42 % 10 °
312 Fri 09/09 06Z 76 ° 62 ° 42 ° SSE 2 WSW 11 WNW 11 0.00 0.00 572 587 -7 ° 18 ° 18 ° 1017 43 % 12 °
324 Fri 09/09 18Z 78 ° 63 ° 51 ° SW 4 W 9 WNW 18 0.01 0.00 574 586 -7 ° 17 ° 20 ° 1013 56 % 12 °
336 Sat 09/10 06Z 80 ° 64 ° 44 ° NNW 2 N 11 NW 11 0.00 0.00 573 585 -6 ° 15 ° 21 ° 1014 4 % 8 °
348 Sat 09/10 18Z 79 ° 61 ° 65 ° NNE 7 N 4 NNW 7 0.00 0.00 572 586 -5 ° 13 ° 19 ° 1016 2 % 5 °
360 Sun 09/11 06Z 78 ° 57 ° 51 ° NE 4 ENE 9 NNW 13 0.00 0.00 571 587 -6 ° 14 ° 17 ° 1018 1 % 7 °
372 Sun 09/11 18Z 76 ° 57 ° 69 ° ENE 7 ENE 9 NNE 11 0.00 0.00 572 589 -6 ° 16 ° 17 ° 1019 3 % 12 °
384 Mon 09/12 06Z 76 ° 58 ° 54 ° NE 7 NNE 7 N 20 0.00 0.00 572 588 -7 ° 16 ° 19 ° 1018 26
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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted

j/k... but in all serioiusness, i think that D6/7 cold shot has about as much likelihood of occurring as this D10 record breaking heat pulse/sonoran ejection event... 

why? because removing emotion from the analysis for the moment; as Will mentioned, the Euro's typical bias of reaming Canadian troughs down the NE CONUS' throat is pretty clearly identifiable here. and, that guarded skepticism should extend to ridging extremes too - 

the GFS had it as 00z for that D8.5-11 range, too ... noted. 

having said that, i think not rushing this cool season in is the course of least regret - i know, ...probably an insurmountable task to ask of a bastion of individuals that are imprisoned by a fugue of misty winter memories as their primary perspective on reality...  (haha), but, we used the expression "NINO hang-over" recently, and I kind of rather like that... I think NINO autumns (warm ensos) might not respond right away to seasonal calls for change.  I could see us getting a few rounds of -PNAP over mid latitudes of our continent heading through much of October even...

i'm, not shocked either if a we have a hammer transition in Novie -

anyway, it is the time of year for these 'shots across the bow' too - so i don't shun the idea altogether, just the magnitude of it.  just sayn'

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
Posted
9 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

j/k... but in all serioiusness, i think that D6/7 shot has about as much likelihood of occurring as this D10 record breaking heat pulse/sonoran ejection event... 

why? because removing emotion from the analysis for the moment; as Will mention, the Euro's typical bias of reaming Canadian troughs down the NE CONUS' throat is pretty clearly identifiable here. and, that guarded skepticism should extend to ridging extremes too - 

the GFS had it as 00z for that D8.5-11 range, too ... noted. 

having said that, i think not rushing this cool season in is the course of least regret - i know, ...probably an insurmountable task to ask of a bastion of individuals that are imprisoned by a fugue of misty winter memories as their primary perspective on reality...  (haha), but, we used the expression "NINO hang-over" recently, and I kind of rather like that... I think NINO autumns (warm ensos) might not respond right away to seasonal calls for change.  I could see us getting a few rounds of -PNAP over mid latitudes of our continent heading through much of October even...

i'm, not shocked either if a we have a hammer transition in Novie -

all 3 models and their ENS have it but time will tell. Getting shots across the bow is so typical this time of year. Same with returning ridges and AN, typical September where you roast then can get chilled. No one is claiming otherwise.

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Isotherm

Isotherm

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

j/k... but in all serioiusness, i think that D6/7 shot has about as much likelihood of occurring as this D10 record breaking heat pulse/sonoran ejection event... 

why? because removing emotion from the analysis for the moment; as Will mention, the Euro's typical bias of reaming Canadian troughs down the NE CONUS' throat is pretty clearly identifiable here. and, that guarded skepticism should extend to ridging extremes too - 

the GFS had it as 00z for that D8.5-11 range, too ... noted. 

having said that, i think not rushing this cool season in is the course of least regret - i know, ...probably an insurmountable task to ask of a bastion of individuals that are imprisoned by a fugue of misty winter memories as their primary perspective on reality...  (haha), but, we used the expression "NINO hang-over" recently, and I kind of rather like that... I think NINO autumns (warm ensos) might not respond right away to seasonal calls for change.  I could see us getting a few rounds of -PNAP over mid latitudes of our continent heading through much of October even...

i'm, not shocked either if a we have a hammer transition in Novie -

 

I think the D8+ ridge expansion has more support in terms of global indicators than progged anomalous cool shots, but I agree that restraint must be exercised given the lead time. However, I would be sufficiently confident to assert the 9/5-9/10 period looks very warm to potentially anomalously warm. The cool shot later next week will provide a taste of autumn, but it will be extremely transient - in accordance with all of our cool shots over the preceding 1.5 months.

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Isotherm

Isotherm

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

all 3 models and their ENS have it but time will tell. Getting shots across the bow is so typical this time of year. Same with returning ridges and AN, typical September where you roast then can get chilled. No one is claiming otherwise. Leaving out your psychobabble makes your posts more readable.

 

The second week of September has potential to be atypical in terms of the anomalous nature of the warmth, but we'll see how it evolves.

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, Isotherm said:

 

The second week of September has potential to be atypical in terms of the anomalous nature of the warmth, but we'll see how it evolves.

Looks that way at 5H, being on top of the ridge can lead to some different solutions down below especially for coastal areas. Something to watch for the scorcher period modelled.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted
11 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

all 3 models and there ENS have it but time will tell. Getting shots across the bow is so typical this time of year. Same with returning ridges and AN, typical September where you roast then can get chilled. No one is claiming otherwise. Leaving out your psychobabble makes your posts more readable.

mmm, and, you not replying with posts like this, that clearly demonstrate you take things too seriously and can't have fun with it, is about as equally telling and exposing, as they are unreadable.  

if that cool interpretation/filter/bias/lust that supercedes an unbiased application of effort on weather social media were not all that ad nauseam obvious to anyone with a head on their shoulders, maybe the commentary wouldn't be needed to swing the pendulum back to center?

you don't smell you're own hole.  stop taking shiz personally and making it looking like your guilty. 

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted
9 minutes ago, Isotherm said:

 

The second week of September has potential to be atypical in terms of the anomalous nature of the warmth, but we'll see how it evolves.

yeah, i see that... but, i also think the ridging has been a bit over-zealous this summer too - 

i'm a bit hesitant there; but also, i can't remember which Met and I were discussing this a month ago (maybe Ocean'?) but the 'big heat' has found 'clever ways' of not availing of higher than normal heights up here in New England - it's been odd.  we've had heights of the caliber that would support 580 thickness and realized big time surface departures... 88... 94 once with DPs of 74, where particular favored hot spots did nick 100 but by and large, leaving a lot of points on the field there.  so repeating as a nuance, can it get that hot?  

plus it's getting late...  i guess "verm warm" by circa September 9 is what 82 ?  okay - 

it's almost like there is a horizontal shear in the means of the atmosphere, where at and above 500 mb it's the hottest summer ever, but be below about 700 there a different circulation type.  ...just conjecture.  

anyway, i guess yeah ...it was 97 over eastern Mass in mid Sept 2013 so given the right circumstance obviously the job can get done.  

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
Posted
12 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

mmm, and, you not replying with posts like this, that clearly demonstrate you take things too seriously and can't have fun with it, is about as equally telling and exposing, as they are unreadable.  

if that cool interpretation/filter/bias/lust that supercedes an unbiased application of effort on weather social media were not all that ad nauseam obvious to anyone with a head on their shoulders, maybe the commentary wouldn't be needed to swing the pendulum back to center?

you don't smell you're own hole.  stop taking shiz personally and making it looking like your guilty. 

12z GFS shows how things could be cooler than first appears. LOL at taking things seriously Mr Freud. I want the heat to enjoy the surf which surely will continue to build with all the increased tropical activity

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, Isotherm said:

Daylight loss aside, the pattern is such that it will continue to feel much like summer as we progress into mid September. Solid string of negative SOI dailies indicative of large scale east --> west flow, low frequency tropical forcing in the WPAC, and upper level convergence signal propagating ewd into the central tropical Pacific by week 2. These larger scale alterations should aid the development / retrogression of the mid-level ridge south of AK in the Pacific, thereby inducing the downstream trough amplification in the Rockies/PAC NW, and concomitant E US ridge expansion. 

Very conducive pattern as currently progged on the ensembles for a very hot Labor Day-9/10 period; not merely the run of the mill +1 SD warmth we've been seeing as of late, but a potential anomalous heat stretch in that September 5th-10th period. 

Some of my analogs for this summer, such as 1988 and 1983, also produced some impressive late season heat, so there is historical support in conjunction w/ latest global indicators and model guidance.

Overall, I'm not really seeing any perceivable indication of protracted autumn temperatures in the Northeast. The possibility exists for a very hot second week of September, and thereafter, a proclivity for the maintenance of the SE ridge appears reasonable. 

This summer has - heretofore - generally been devoid of impressive/widespread > +20c 850mb pulses into the Northeast; however, Sept 5+ could produce such an event if the ridge/trough orientation evolves as modelled. Would not be surprised to see 100F at DCA once again with mid-upper 90s up the I-95 corridor.

The second week of September should feature a classic looking Nina / low AAM regime w/ the mid latitude ridging south of AK, strong vortex north of Greenland, and corresponding/teleconnecting trough and ridge in the West and East respectively (does this pattern look familiar? --> December 2015?).

 

8wcegj.gif

 

I think you meant +SOI with east to west flow? I agree, it looks warm after next weekend. I'll enjoy that cool shot for now. 

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted
28 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

12z GFS shows how things could be cooler than first appears. LOL at taking things seriously Mr Freud. I want the heat to enjoy the surf which surely will continue to build with all the increased tropical activity

no, it doesn't ... 

the trough over the lower Maritimes/eastern Ontario on the 00z oper. run had a large 556 DAM circumvallate; contrasting, this 12z run is overall substantially less deep with the full-latitude characteristic of trough depth over those same areas/time intervals. 

that describes reasons why the opposite would be true; a step down dude, regardless of what the other levels suggest - the mid levels tend to guide those, eventually, and they'll correct. 

this is consistent with the idea that the cool shot is probably being attenuated in future guidance, in time.  

Mr Freud?  dude - again.. you make my point.   just drop it -you're sacking your self. 

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

no, it doesn't ... 

the trough over the lower Maritimes/eastern Ontario on the 00z oper. run had a large 556 DAM circumvallate; contrasting, this 12z run is overall substantially less deep with the full-latitude characteristic of trough depth over those same areas/time intervals. 

that's descripes reasons why the opposite would be true; a step down dude, regardless of what the other levels suggest - the mid levels tend to guide those, eventually, and they'll correct. 

this is consistent the cool shot is probably being attenuated in future guidance, in time.  

Mr Freud?  dude - again.. you make my point.   just drop it -you're sacking your self. 

Hey Sigmund I am talking about days 10-15, look at the surface temps

 

CST
Hour 		Valid
Time 		Max
Temp °F 		Min
Temp °F 		Td
°F 		10m 
Wind mph 		925mb
Wind mph 		850mb
Wind mph 		Total
Precip(") 		Conv.
Precip(") 		500-1000
THKNS 		500mb
Height 		500mb
Temp °C 		850mb
Temp °C 		925mb
Temp °C 		MSLP
mb 		Total
Cloud Cover 		850mb
Td(°C)
192 Sun 09/04 12Z 56 ° 49 ° 43 ° N 4 N 13 NNW 13 0.00 0.00 554 574 -12 ° 4 ° 9 ° 1023 40 % -6 °
204 Mon 09/05 00Z 68 ° 56 ° 57 ° NNE 4 N 7 NNW 7 0.00 0.00 555 575 -13 ° 5 ° 11 ° 1024 31 % -2 °
216 Mon 09/05 12Z 54 ° 47 ° 27 ° E 2 E 2 NNE 4 0.00 0.00 555 578 -13 ° 6 ° 11 ° 1027 4 % -1 °
228 Tue 09/06 00Z 71 ° 57 ° 42 ° SE 2 SSE 2 CALM 0.00 0.00 561 585 -10 ° 6 ° 12 ° 1027 0 % 2 °
240 Tue 09/06 12Z 59 ° 54 ° 31 ° S 4 SW 18 WSW 9 0.00 0.00 563 586 -9 ° 9 ° 12 ° 1026 0 % 4 °
252 Wed 09/07 00Z 70 ° 54 ° 58 ° SSW 11 SSW 22 WSW 25 0.00 0.00 565 585 -9 ° 11 ° 14 ° 1023 18 % 6 °
264 Wed 09/07 12Z 72 ° 65 ° 62 ° SSW 11 SW 36 W 25 0.00 0.00 567 583 -11 ° 14 ° 17 ° 1018 58 % 9 °
276 Thu 09/08 00Z 77 ° 66 ° 72 ° WSW 7 W 13 W 16 0.02 0.01 571 585 -8 ° 15 ° 19 ° 1016 52 % 10 °
288 Thu 09/08 12Z 79 ° 64 ° 61 ° NNW 2 ENE 9 WNW 4 0.07 0.07 570 586 -8 ° 13 ° 17 ° 1019 6 % 10 °
300 Fri 09/09 00Z 77 ° 62 ° 64 ° ENE 4 E 4 CALM 0.00 0.00 571 588 -7 ° 14 ° 17 ° 1019 42 % 10 °
312 Fri 09/09 12Z 76 ° 62 ° 42 ° SSE 2 WSW 11 WNW 11 0.00 0.00 572 587 -7 ° 18 ° 18 ° 1017 43 % 12 °
324 Sat 09/10 00Z 78 ° 63 ° 51 ° SW 4 W 9 WNW 18 0.01 0.00 574 586 -7 ° 17 ° 20 ° 1013 56 % 12 °
336 Sat 09/10 12Z 80 ° 64 ° 44 ° NNW 2 N 11 NW 11 0.00 0.00 573 585 -6 ° 15 ° 21 ° 1014 4 % 8 °
348 Sun 09/11 00Z 79 ° 61 ° 65 ° NNE 7 N 4 NNW 7 0.00 0.00 572 586 -5 ° 13 ° 19 ° 1016 2 % 5 °
360 Sun 09/11 12Z 78 ° 57 ° 51 ° NE 4 ENE 9 NNW 13 0.00 0.00 571 587 -6 ° 14 ° 17 ° 1018 1 % 7 °
372 Mon 09/12 00Z 76 ° 57 ° 69 ° ENE 7 ENE 9 NNE 11 0.00 0.00 572 589 -6 ° 16 ° 17 ° 1019 3 % 12 °
384 Mon 09/12 12Z 76 ° 58 ° 54 ° NE 7 NNE 7 N 20 0.00 0.00 572 588 -7 ° 16 ° 19 ° 1018 26 % 14 °
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mitchnick

mitchnick

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

I don't know man....just looks pretty warm after next weekend. Shadows and all...it's warm. Blah. Only saving grace is if we have highs building down amid warm temps aloft. 

Average temps are dropping, so AN is a little easier to take. Especially how hot it's been down here the last two months. 

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Isotherm

Isotherm

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

I think you meant +SOI with east to west flow? I agree, it looks warm after next weekend. I'll enjoy that cool shot for now. 

 

Yes, meant to say +SOI. Thanks. Yeah, as others have noted, the declining sun and averages will make it more tolerable, but it appears the warmth is here to stay for awhile.

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