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Hermine

LakeEffectKing

By LakeEffectKing,
in Tropical Headquarters

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David Reimer

David Reimer

Posted
Posted 
Down to 993-994 MB with a partial eyewall forming. FL winds up to 66 knots but SFMR values haven't caught up yet.

VORTEX DATA MESSAGE  AL092016
A. 01/09:35:57Z
B. 26 deg 40 min N
  086 deg 20 min W
C. 850 mb 1385 m
D. 35 kt
E. 321 deg 20 nm
F. 098 deg 41 kt
G. 327 deg 31 nm
H. 994 mb
I. 19 C / 1538 m
J. 22 C / 1546 m
K. 19 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345 / 8
O. 0.1 / 2 nm
P. NOAA3 1209A HERMINE OB 26
PARTIAL ELLIPTICAL N/S 20/15 OPEN SOUTH
MAX FL WIND 66 KT 131 / 81 NM 06:28:15Z
MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND 52 KT 181 / 42 NM 09:47:51Z
CNTR DROPSONDE SFC WIND 145 / 15 KTS
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David Reimer

David Reimer

Posted
Posted 
Just measured a 71 knot FL wind - up from 66 knots last pass. SFMR values still low so it looks like surface winds haven't responded too much yet. 

100730 2510N 08604W 8418 01557 0055 +184 +159 218063 064 043 003 00
100800 2512N 08603W 8431 01542 0053 +190 +150 218065 066 040 004 00
100830 2514N 08602W 8424 01547 0049 +192 +143 219065 067 042 001 00
100900 2516N 08600W 8430 01541 0046 +195 +163 225062 063 044 001 00
100930 2518N 08558W 8423 01546 0046 +194 +142 217065 067 043 001 00
101000 2519N 08556W 8424 01545 0051 +188 +152 216064 066 041 001 00
101030 2520N 08553W 8430 01543 0050 +190 +168 219061 062 043 002 00
101100 2521N 08551W 8425 01545 0046 +196 +146 220062 062 046 001 00
101130 2522N 08549W 8425 01545 0048 +196 +151 215063 063 045 000 00
101200 2523N 08546W 8423 01548 0047 +193 +170 215063 064 046 001 00
101230 2525N 08544W 8417 01554 0047 +190 +188 217061 061 040 004 03
101300 2526N 08542W 8403 01570 0046 +189 //// 218057 059 035 009 01
101330 2528N 08540W 8430 01544 0050 +186 //// 217063 065 037 006 01
101400 2529N 08538W 8404 01567 0050 +183 +182 216066 067 041 003 00
101430 2531N 08536W 8406 01567 0056 +180 +174 214065 065 042 005 00
101500 2532N 08534W 8422 01551 0057 +179 //// 214066 066 041 013 01
101530 2534N 08531W 8441 01532 0059 +179 //// 212068 070 042 013 01
101600 2536N 08529W 8431 01543 0057 +177 +173 214068 071 047 015 00
101630 2537N 08527W 8399 01577 0060 +175 +173 212063 064 053 020 00
101700 2538N 08525W 8378 01594 0057 +174 //// 205064 066 049 023 01
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PackGrad05

PackGrad05

Posted
Posted

Models keep see-sawing east to west with the track.  I wouldn't be surprised to see it move back west a little bit, especially after landfall...

Also, I think winds to the NW will be amplified due to the interaction with the front/trough and increased pressure gradient on that side.  Whoever gets a lot of rain will not need much wind to cause problems.  (trees, power outages, etc...)  All the way up the east coast.

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David Reimer

David Reimer

Posted
Posted

I'd say we now have a 65 MPH tropical storm. Dropsondes over the past hour confirm that the 65-70+ knot winds at 850 millibars aren't mixing down particularly well to the surface yet. If we continue to see a pressure drop this morning I wouldn't be surprised to see surface winds quickly uptick at some point based on past systems. 

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David Reimer

David Reimer

Posted
Posted 
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE  AL092016
A. 01/11:00:08Z
B. 26 deg 55 min N
  086 deg 15 min W
C. 850 mb 1378 m
D. 53 kt (SFMR winds still lagging)
E. 107 deg 40 nm
F. 182 deg 71 kt
G. 103 deg 53 nm
H. 993 mb
I. 19 C / 1533 m
J. 22 C / 1551 m
K. 20 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345 / 8
O. 0.1 / 1 nm
P. NOAA3 1209A HERMINE OB 32
PARTIAL INNER EYEWALL MORE CIRCULAR 18 NM DIA OPEN W
STRONG CONVECTIVE BANDING EAST SEMICIRCLE
MAX FL WIND 71 KT 103 / 53 NM 10:44:14Z
CNTR DROPSONDE SFC WIND 080 / 18 KTS
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David Reimer

David Reimer

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, Cheeznado said:

It jogged back north a tad on that last fix. If this thing can wrap more convection around the west side of the center, watch out

The 10Z HRRR seems to show that small trend as well. It has landfall around 03Z tonight as a 981MB hurricane. It has done well with the pressure drops overnight and associated development. 

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wthrmn654

wthrmn654

Posted
Posted
12 minutes ago, David Reimer said:

NASA Drone about to drop a dropsonde into center of Hermine. That thing has been extremely useful over the last two weeks. Good gap-fill until we get the AF flight in about two hours. 

Nasa drone? You have any links or info on this, it sounds pretty dam cool!

 

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RubiksDestroyer

RubiksDestroyer

Posted
Posted

Honestly, I wouldn't be surprised at all if the 12z models come back further west with this system again. Seems like the storm center has wobbled slightly to the NNW, which may cause yet another track adjustment. I'd also watch to see how well Hermine can get convection going on its northern and western sides over the next few hours, which it seems to be starting to do. Once it becomes more symmetrical, Hermine should be clear to strengthen more or less until landfall. I think a moderate cat 1 to weak cat 2 landfall is very possible at this point, and especially so on the higher end if current trends continue.

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David Reimer

David Reimer

Posted
Posted

At some point you just have to stop staring at model data and just follow the trends with the data. I think we're just about to that point. Who cares what models say about intensity over the next 12 hours until landfall? We have aircraft, 1 minute satellite data, and surface observations. It's time to sit back and just observe the trends as we progress through the day. 

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hlcater

hlcater

Posted
Posted
39 minutes ago, beanskip said:

Question about the reliability of the HWRF (988 mb at landfall) and GFDL (968 mb) on intensity forecasts? Reliable? Toss 'em? 

Not great but cannot be ignored. The fact the GFDL has 968mb, toss that one, but the HWRF while having a poor track record with this system, seems reasonable

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rockchalk83

rockchalk83

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, David Reimer said:

At some point you just have to stop staring at model data and just follow the trends with the data. I think we're just about to that point. Who cares what models say about intensity over the next 12 hours until landfall? We have aircraft, 1 minute satellite data, and surface observations. It's time to sit back and just observe the trends as we progress through the day. 

This....all day. We've modeled this to death, it's just time to sit back and monitor trends. 

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RubiksDestroyer

RubiksDestroyer

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, Morris said:

And almost none bring it up to hurricane strength.

Something about that graphic seems very wrong... Notice that the OFCI line doesn't go above the cat 1 mark, but clearly the NHC has this storm reaching hurricane strength.

 

Regardless, David Reimer is right. It's more important to look at what the system's actually doing at this point then looking at what the models say it will do.

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