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Hermine

LakeEffectKing

By LakeEffectKing,
in Tropical Headquarters

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Jackstraw

Jackstraw

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, pcbjr said:

Yeah - my son just called and said he's received an email that all his classes at USF are cancelled. Good move.

The entire west coast is basically getting double high tides for the next 24 to 36 hours like I feared.  Have family and friends there and they are telling me it's going to be a long night and day tomorrow.  I lived on IRB for 10 or 15 years (85 to 2000 I think, some years were foggy lol) and know how prone to flooding from the backside if you get double tides and a storm coming in.  The The Storm of the Century caught everyone off guard with back flodding from the intracoastal and the back bays.  Elena was the same way only for days.  Elena was like being beat to death with a rubber chicken, tortured until everyone just laughed like Jack Nicholson ;)

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SN_Lover

SN_Lover

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

There's a banter thread yah know.  The environment is much better than the last few days, therefore it's gradually strengthening. 

yea, keyword there. OHC is horrible, sheer gonna go through the roof, and the entire system is missing convection altogether in 2 quadrants. 

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NJwx85

NJwx85

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, SN_Lover said:

yea, keyword there. OHC is horrible, sheer gonna go through the roof, and the entire system is missing convection altogether in 2 quadrants. 

What are you expecting? It's a 50kt TS that has struggled mightly for the past week trying to maintain convection. It's a miracle it didn't dissipate when it was still in the Bahamas. I know the Tropical snobs are getting antsy but you just have to be patient.

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SN_Lover

SN_Lover

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

What are you expecting? It's a 50kt TS that has struggled mightly for the past week trying to maintain convection. It's a miracle it didn't dissipate when it was still in the Bahamas. I know the Tropical snobs are getting antsy but you just have to be patient.

Yea, that part amazes me. 

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Jackstraw

Jackstraw

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, pcbjr said:

 quote from one of our FL hurricane web pages (just tossing it out there FWIW given all the seeming uncertainty)

 

It looks like the models initialized too far west of the real center. I would suspect a shift back east over time back toward the big bend. Closer to cedar key

Hmmmm... ? ;)

 

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jojo762

jojo762

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, SteveVa said:

Whoa, NOAA amps the max sustained wind speed to 60mph and issues hurricane warnings. Does not seem very conservative, they have to be on to something

That right side of the system, where the strongest convection is, is quite strong and mildly persistent. This is going to be a dangerous situation for somewhere in the big bend of florida, mainly because of the surge and given how the oceanic topography is.

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jojo762

jojo762

Posted
Posted 
TROPICAL STORM HERMINE DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092016
1000 PM CDT WED AUG 31 2016

Data from NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft this
afternoon and evening indicate that Hermine has continued to
strengthen, based on maximum 850-mb flight-level winds of 57 kt and
peak SFMR surface winds of 52 kt. A recent dropsonde in the center
of Hermine measured a pressure of about 998 mb, which is a decrease
of 6 mb from the previous advisory.

Recon fixes over the past 4 hours indicate that the estimated motion
is north-northeastward or 025/09 kt. An approaching mid-tropospheric
trough located over the southeastern United States and extending
southward into the north-central Gulf of Mexico is expected to
gradually lift out Hermine to the north-northeast tonight and
Thursday, and then northeastward after 24 hours. The NHC model is
in very good agreement on this developing steering flow pattern.
Later in the forecast period, significant uncertainty in the track
forecast remains, depending on how much the post-tropical cyclone
interacts with a mid-latitude cutoff low that develops over the
northeastern United States. The new NHC forecast track has been
shifted slightly to the east of the previous advisory track,
primarily due to the more eastward initial position determined from
recent recon fixes, and lies just to the left of the consensus model
TVCN.

The vertical wind shear is forecast by the GFS and the ECMWF models
to shift from the current west-northwesterly direction to
southwesterly by 18-24 hours at about 5 to 10 kt. SSTs are expected
to be near 30C.  The intensity consensus IVCN again brings Hermine
to hurricane strength prior to landfall and the offical forecast
follows this guidance, forcing the issuance of a hurricane warning
with this advisory.  The predicted extratropical transition of the
system is based on the global model guidance, which show the cyclone
becoming embedded within a frontal zone over the eastern United
States by 72 hours.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  01/0300Z 25.8N  87.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  01/1200Z 26.9N  86.4W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  02/0000Z 28.7N  85.4W   65 KT  75 MPH
 36H  02/1200Z 30.7N  83.8W   60 KT  70 MPH...INLAND
 48H  03/0000Z 32.8N  81.4W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND
 72H  04/0000Z 37.0N  76.3W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
 96H  05/0000Z 39.0N  74.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  06/0000Z 39.0N  71.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
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