CamSE-Wx Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 12z GFS seems a tad Northwest from this morning's run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 9 minutes ago, Bacon Strips said: next recon will come in during a better flareup. this one came in during the lull. We're not talking about a system with a lot of time left before landfall. We probably need to see another decent pressure drop before a relative increase in surface winds occur. The wind field is just too large (and lopsided) at this point. Either the surface winds start to increase relative to the flight-level winds or we'll need flight level winds around 80-85 knots just to get a few sustained hurricane force wind reports down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 Be interesting to see how sst anomalies affect her once she hits the Atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 15 minutes ago, David Reimer said: We're not talking about a system with a lot of time left before landfall. We probably need to see another decent pressure drop before a relative increase in surface winds occur. The wind field is just too large (and lopsided) at this point. Either the surface winds start to increase relative to the flight-level winds or we'll need flight level winds around 80-85 knots just to get a few sustained hurricane force wind reports down. agreed somewhat. But I could still see a nice uptick happen before landfall. As expected, the storm is tightening up nicely against land interaction. problems already - PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 1200 PM EDT THU SEP 01 2016 ..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... ..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 1159 AM TROPICAL STORM APALACHICOLA 29.72N 84.99W 09/01/2016 FRANKLIN FL EMERGENCY MNGR FRANKLIN COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGER REPORTS WATER OVER THE DOCKS AND INTO RIVER STREET IN APALACHICOLA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 Flight Level winds up to 75 knots, but SFMR estimates remain a good 20-25 knots below that. 155600 2605N 08350W 8435 01572 0100 +176 +141 188059 060 044 003 00 155630 2607N 08351W 8428 01579 0100 +177 +133 189059 060 044 003 00 155700 2609N 08351W 8433 01572 0099 +178 +129 188059 060 044 003 00 155730 2611N 08351W 8429 01574 0097 +175 +142 186059 060 045 003 00 155800 2613N 08352W 8429 01575 0100 +171 +147 186061 061 043 005 00 155830 2615N 08352W 8432 01568 0099 +167 +152 185060 061 046 004 00 155900 2618N 08353W 8426 01572 0095 +173 +140 184060 061 046 004 00 155930 2620N 08353W 8432 01565 0093 +174 +137 185062 063 045 005 00 160000 2622N 08354W 8431 01564 0092 +171 +149 189063 064 045 004 00 160030 2624N 08354W 8429 01569 0089 +176 +140 191067 068 046 004 00 160100 2626N 08354W 8430 01562 0089 +171 +152 189068 068 047 005 00 160130 2628N 08355W 8429 01565 0089 +167 +166 188066 068 048 006 00 160200 2630N 08355W 8430 01563 0095 +165 //// 187063 065 046 006 05 160230 2633N 08356W 8429 01566 0095 +166 //// 188067 067 045 007 05 160300 2635N 08355W 8430 01561 0094 +167 //// 186068 069 047 005 01 160330 2637N 08355W 8430 01558 0101 +156 +156 181072 073 045 011 00 160400 2639N 08355W 8420 01569 0098 +155 //// 179073 074 048 005 01 160430 2641N 08355W 8430 01560 0093 +160 +160 181071 073 046 005 00 160500 2644N 08354W 8429 01562 0097 +155 +153 185074 075 050 007 00 160530 2646N 08354W 8425 01562 0105 +156 +156 184074 074 051 008 03 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 First SFMR value over 60 knots, albit invalid due to heavy rain (Thanks wxmx). 160600 2648N 08354W 8444 01544 0102 +157 +157 179075 076 048 012 00 160630 2651N 08354W 8443 01547 0110 +151 //// 176066 074 043 030 05 160700 2653N 08354W 8417 01569 0107 +140 //// 176067 068 047 023 01 160730 2655N 08355W 8441 01545 0109 +150 +150 174070 073 047 033 00 160800 2657N 08356W 8425 01565 0105 +162 +162 171063 073 042 036 03 160830 2659N 08357W 8452 01534 0102 +168 +168 176068 071 050 035 00 160900 2701N 08358W 8422 01562 0102 +162 +162 180063 064 053 039 00 160930 2703N 08359W 8427 01555 0094 +171 +171 171059 064 061 039 00 161000 2704N 08400W 8430 01557 0099 +172 +172 177056 061 054 043 00 161030 2706N 08401W 8425 01560 0099 +167 +167 174061 063 050 028 03 161100 2708N 08402W 8427 01560 0095 +164 +164 174068 072 050 012 00 161130 2710N 08403W 8438 01549 0089 +168 +168 171060 063 048 007 00 161200 2712N 08404W 8423 01559 0085 +165 //// 173058 060 048 007 01 161230 2714N 08404W 8427 01553 0086 +166 +166 181058 059 048 005 00 161300 2716N 08405W 8432 01548 0087 +167 +167 184056 058 048 008 03 161330 2718N 08405W 8426 01551 0089 +168 +168 186060 062 048 010 00 161400 2720N 08406W 8432 01548 0086 +169 +169 187060 063 049 013 00 161430 2723N 08406W 8426 01551 0084 +169 +169 192061 062 052 015 03 161500 2725N 08407W 8429 01549 0086 +168 +168 190062 063 049 014 00 161530 2727N 08407W 8429 01547 0087 +166 +166 188065 067 050 018 03 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 The NE quad could have some slightly stronger FL winds... Could see those 85 knot FL winds by this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 5 minutes ago, David Reimer said: First SFMR value over 60 knots. 160600 2648N 08354W 8444 01544 0102 +157 +157 179075 076 048 012 00 160630 2651N 08354W 8443 01547 0110 +151 //// 176066 074 043 030 05 160700 2653N 08354W 8417 01569 0107 +140 //// 176067 068 047 023 01 160730 2655N 08355W 8441 01545 0109 +150 +150 174070 073 047 033 00 160800 2657N 08356W 8425 01565 0105 +162 +162 171063 073 042 036 03 160830 2659N 08357W 8452 01534 0102 +168 +168 176068 071 050 035 00 160900 2701N 08358W 8422 01562 0102 +162 +162 180063 064 053 039 00 160930 2703N 08359W 8427 01555 0094 +171 +171 171059 064 061 039 00 161000 2704N 08400W 8430 01557 0099 +172 +172 177056 061 054 043 00 161030 2706N 08401W 8425 01560 0099 +167 +167 174061 063 050 028 03 161100 2708N 08402W 8427 01560 0095 +164 +164 174068 072 050 012 00 161130 2710N 08403W 8438 01549 0089 +168 +168 171060 063 048 007 00 161200 2712N 08404W 8423 01559 0085 +165 //// 173058 060 048 007 01 161230 2714N 08404W 8427 01553 0086 +166 +166 181058 059 048 005 00 161300 2716N 08405W 8432 01548 0087 +167 +167 184056 058 048 008 03 161330 2718N 08405W 8426 01551 0089 +168 +168 186060 062 048 010 00 161400 2720N 08406W 8432 01548 0086 +169 +169 187060 063 049 013 00 161430 2723N 08406W 8426 01551 0084 +169 +169 192061 062 052 015 03 161500 2725N 08407W 8429 01549 0086 +168 +168 190062 063 049 014 00 161530 2727N 08407W 8429 01547 0087 +166 +166 188065 067 050 018 03 Rainfall rate > 1.5" in those higher values Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 Just now, wxmx said: Rainfall rate > 1.5" in those higher values I was a little optimistic... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 Recon hitting that strong eastern band. Tampa also about to see some gusty showers around tropical storm force Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 3 minutes ago, David Reimer said: I was a little optimistic... It's clearly strengthening, although just gradually. It's currently developing a banding eye. It will be close to hurricane strength at landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 Is there a readily available/free placefile for GR products for recon? Thus far I've been using the Google Earth and TropicalTidbits viewing method. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 Do we need to consider a dedicated obs thread or should we keep them consolidated in this one?Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tibet Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 13 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: Is there a readily available/free placefile for GR products for recon? Thus far I've been using the Google Earth and TropicalTidbits viewing method. http://tropicalatlantic.com/recon/recon.cgi?basin=al&year=2016&storm=Hermine&mission=13&agency=AF&product=hdob&latest=1 Try that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 6 minutes ago, NavarreDon said: Do we need to consider a dedicated obs thread or should we keep them consolidated in this one? Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Probably a good idea to create an obs thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 cell that's about to hit tampa , has 50+ mph gusts possible. base velocity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 4 minutes ago, Tibet said: http://tropicalatlantic.com/recon/recon.cgi?basin=al&year=2016&storm=Hermine&mission=13&agency=AF&product=hdob&latest=1 Try that No luck. But thank you! Seems like if I want that capability I might need to reactivate my AllisonHouse subscription! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tater Tot Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 Really big storm; reminds me of the way Ike started looking right before landfall (albeit much weaker). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaEasternWX Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 12 minutes ago, wxmx said: Probably a good idea to create an obs thread. Created Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 8 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: No luck. But thank you! Seems like if I want that capability I might need to reactivate my AllisonHouse subscription! You might could write a php script/give the idea to someone on the marketplace/general forum. It seems like it wouldn't be the hardest to do considering all the free raw data sources out there. I would, but not enough experience. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaEasternWX Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 Max winds up to 70mph per latest 12 PM CDT advisory. http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT4+shtml/DDHHMM.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 Pressure at 990 on latest pass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaEasternWX Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 1 minute ago, Morris said: Pressure at 990 on latest pass. Per the latest Advisory pressure down to 989 mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 Guess they're just assuming that some of those higher FL winds are translating down to the surface. 989mb is a tad lower than what recon from either flight found I believe too. Anyone know why they might've went with 989? On a side note... Watching a 72 hour satellite loop of this system would be fascinating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 1 minute ago, jojo762 said: Guess they're just assuming that some of those higher FL winds are translating down to the surface. 989mb is a tad lower than what recon from either flight found I believe too. Anyone know why they might've went with 989? Dropsonde? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING EXTENDED SOUTHWARD ALONG THE GULF AND EAST COASTS OF FLORIDA...Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that tropical-storm-force winds extend significantly farther to the east of the center of Hermine than they did earlier. This requires the extension of the Tropical Storm Warning southward along the Gulf coast of Florida to Englewood, and along the Florida east coast southward to the Flagler/Volusia County line. A special advisory will be issued within the next 30 minutes to update the forecast and warnings for Hermine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 Recon found 55+kt SFC winds on the SW side of the circulation. Impressive for this system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 Looks like it may close off a massive pseudo-eye Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 Massive rain shield Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 2pm You can look down through the large eye and see the LLC low clouds in the middle of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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