Carvers Gap Posted January 26, 2017 Share Posted January 26, 2017 18z GEFS mean for the next 16 days... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 26, 2017 Share Posted January 26, 2017 Couple of different options on the table w MJO. The Euro wants to take the tour while the GFS cuts across the COD to better territory. The Weeklies tonight should have a pronounced warm-up embedded unless it is in conflict w itself like it was Monday. W the Euro going through 5, 6, and 7...that implies a warm-up unless another driver such as a -NAO or SSW trumps it. With the SOI going positive and maybe trending there for some time, we will need another driver to trump its influence or we will go warm. There is a lag to the index maybe of about a week. So whenever it goes into five, add about a week to allow for its influence. The MJO has been a decent indicator this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMZ8990 Posted January 26, 2017 Share Posted January 26, 2017 18 hours ago, Carvers Gap said: 18z GEFS mean for the next 16 days... That is pretty impressive, If some of those totals pan out then we could be in for an interesting February. It's always fun to look through and examine these models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 26, 2017 Share Posted January 26, 2017 14 minutes ago, AMZ8990 said: That is pretty impressive, If some of those totals pan out then we could be in for an interesting February. It's always fun to look through and examine these models. Yep. The GEFS looks good even at 12z...but it may very well be alone in that look after today. The 12z GEPS, while not bad...it is not good either. We will SE where the EPS goes this afternoon and weeklies tonight.....In some ways the EPS has moved to the GEFS, but that was a step back on the GEPS w the building ridge. Looks eerily like those lukewarm weeklies from a couple of runs a go. We need to be watchful of -NAO and a BN heights over AK. I think it was Snowgoose who mentioned that is one way to have a -NAO and it be warm in the SE. For whatever reason, (maybe it is my grass turning green or the presence of big numbers of robins) I sense spring is close. Not a scientific explanation, but with 4.5 weeks to go...I can easily see a path where approximately two of those weeks are well above normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 26, 2017 Share Posted January 26, 2017 I was thinking today that if I had to put out a forecast for Feb, I would probably go with 1.5 to 2.5F AN. Snowfall would be well below normal for the western and southern half of the forum area. NE TN and SW VA would be just below normal. If you get 2 feet in your backyard, you can send me a Christmas card. Ha! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 26, 2017 Share Posted January 26, 2017 The 12z GEFS is now somewhat on a limb on its own as suspected....the EPS pulls BN anomalies northwest into AK. +NAO, +AO, +EPO, +PNA, -WPO. BN heights over the western Pac connect to heights BN in AK. What is crazy is the control goes full bore w cold into the US along w a raging -NAO and huge block over AK. Again, the models will be a mess as the pattern is definitely reshuffling. But last night's trends and this evening's trends depict a PV that is contracting/retrograding to AK. Even w the -NAO, the BN heights over AK represent a significant and somewhat not unexpected setback. MJO and QBO do not support an extended presence of a trough in the East. Might be a different pattern, but same result here. Now, if one wanted to hang on to the thin thread of hope that we have...better ride w the GEFS and hope it scores a coup. It has has been decent of late. Also, need some unlikely help on the Atlantic side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 26, 2017 Share Posted January 26, 2017 1 hour ago, flash43 said: I don't mind February being a couple degrees AN as long as we have a couple legit storms to track (either severe or winter). As long as we don't have a repeat of this month, I'll take it. At this point, my 4 for 4 snowchase rule (i.e. 4" within a 4-hour drive) is in full effect. Yeah, I will head to the mountains as it will be unlikely they get shut out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 26, 2017 Share Posted January 26, 2017 Weeklies are not great as suspected....they are in sync w the MJO Euro plot. Looking at 850s as 2m temps are not out yet. Cold for about 18 days. Then, it is warm for the last half of February. March, the 850s are increasingly cold. The bad...BN heights indeed retrograde into AK, but they move through over a ten day period. Other than the GEFS(it is the outlier for the MJO plot), all LR modeling now points to a significant warm-up around Feb 10th. Indeed, it is a massive pattern change w a weak mean trough over the East. But without decent blocking over the top, it is a very zonal look for the second half of Feb. Then, when we are ready for spring...gets cold. If we want significant winter after mid-Feb we need to be rooting for today's GEFS. So, we will see what happens when the new pattern establishes itself. At this point, enjoy the next couple of weeks of cold temps...and we will see where it goes. Very 1989 feel w a bit of 93 for spice. Again, no, I am not calling for a big March storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 27, 2017 Share Posted January 27, 2017 On 1/23/2017 at 2:38 AM, Daniel Boone said: It appears the dreaded 73-74 analog is working out well,unfortunately. Some difference of course as what snow there was at this juncture then fell in December as opposed to January. February did feature somewhat colder weather then with minor snowfall amounts. Unfortunately ,for most of the area 73-74 was one of the top least snowiest on record. However, a slight shift in a couple storms tracks in February and it would have been decent. So, if a similar analog follow continues, there's still some hope for at least a little snow. On a sidenote , in case some dont know about it. Snowfall as well as Temperature averages have been "adjusted" to accommodate global warming. I personally disagree with it as it masks the climate changes. Ktri average seasonal snowfall used to be 16" in the 80's, now it is 12" I believe. Pennington gap here in Lee county used to be 21". Now 16". Here you go, DB. This one is for you. Here is where the models are headed (at least for today) IMO. Plenty of similarities Pulled these those evening. https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/cgi-bin/data/getpage.pl?tool=%2Fpsd%2Fdata%2Fcomposites%2F&Submit=Go!&type=3&var=11&time=3&range=0&data=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 27, 2017 Share Posted January 27, 2017 Isotherm pretty much nailed(as it stands now and w current forecasts) the seasonal snow and temp forecast...incredibly impressive. Here is the link... http://www.lightinthestorm.com/archives/1026 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted January 27, 2017 Share Posted January 27, 2017 2 hours ago, Carvers Gap said: Isotherm pretty much nailed(as it stands now and w current forecasts) the seasonal snow and temp forecast...incredibly impressive. Here is the link... http://www.lightinthestorm.com/archives/1026 Yeah man. He is a heck of a lr forecaster! One of the best, IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 27, 2017 Share Posted January 27, 2017 3 hours ago, Carvers Gap said: Isotherm pretty much nailed(as it stands now and w current forecasts) the seasonal snow and temp forecast...incredibly impressive. Here is the link... http://www.lightinthestorm.com/archives/1026 His primary analog of 1973-1974 coming off a strong Nina.April 3-4 of 1974 was the Super Outbreak with 148 tornadoes,35 F3's,23 F4'S and 7 F5'S,what a storm !! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 27, 2017 Share Posted January 27, 2017 I am interested in the Feb 5-10 timeframe. Southern jet is active. Cold to work w to our north. 12z GFS and CMC (not getting into specifics at ten days out) show some confluence centered to our east or over this area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted January 27, 2017 Share Posted January 27, 2017 GFS 18z 222hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMZ8990 Posted January 27, 2017 Share Posted January 27, 2017 30 minutes ago, Mrwolf1972 said: GFS 18z 222hrs. They sure do have the snow spread out on that first map. That would be a big storm if it panned out. Atlanta would be crippled if they got that much freezing rain too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted January 27, 2017 Share Posted January 27, 2017 European showing it to Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 Not a horrid look,we can score with this look,more Nina lookish up into the Upper Plains http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 2 hours ago, Mrwolf1972 said: GFS 18z 222hrs. GFS has shown on some runs over the last several days a fantasy storm around this period of 3rd to 6th of feb interesting to see 18Z today show it. Inside 10 days out generally I begin taking runs more serious but a bit more consistency still needed though I like seeing that. Not only would Atl be crippled but a quarter inch of ice and 4" to 8" of snow would cripple Chatt and Hamilton county in general. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 Nice burst on the Hovmollers being shown into 3.4 into the 2nd week of Feb.Last time we seen this was 7-10 of Jan,then around a week later the MJO was out of the COD into a relative decent phase 1,not sure how this will play out but it at least has some hope around Mid Feb or somewhere along that time frame Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlunderStorm Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 What a beautiful dream of a run. Not happening but always a morale boost for upcoming February. Also encouraging to see a possible favorable pattern mid-month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 28, 2017 Author Share Posted January 28, 2017 Storms in the pattern and coldish air nearby. That's about all you can hope for at 9-10 days out. If given a choice it'd be frigid air overhead and a storm near Tampa Bay over the next few days. That may be too much to ask though. Not sure what the Euro gets to here, but it's not a bad look for 40 and north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 28, 2017 Author Share Posted January 28, 2017 Euro snow map from 00z snows 3-6 inches tight along the northern border from the Plateau Eastward and in SE Ky with 5-8 in SWVA. Not sure how much of that may be clipper related though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 28, 2017 Author Share Posted January 28, 2017 The GFS Op wasn't super, but the ens were pretty good. This snow depth mean is actually pretty decent for the ens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 28, 2017 Author Share Posted January 28, 2017 Final post of the evening, we are possibly looking at a pattern change back to warmth maybe 3-4 days after this potential storm. It seems that we often see a decent winter storm at the end of a cold pattern before it flips back to warm. It definitely happened in early January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 Gfs continues to take storm north with all rain hope it comes back to us in the coming days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 52 minutes ago, Mrwolf1972 said: Gfs continues to take storm north with all rain hope it comes back to us in the coming days. Would be nice for sure. One thing is certain, as with all systems, the ending track is still undetermined! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dwagner88 Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 You could tell the GFS was going to take it north. Look at the position of the HP centers on the first clown map posted. They don't make sense for winter weather here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 4 hours ago, weathertree4u said: Would be nice for sure. One thing is certain, as with all systems, the ending track is still undetermined! Totally agree. I would add that it might be wise for folks to look at the entire model suite...If I remember correctly, the GEM and Euro took the low road. JB thinks it goes through the mid-west and into the northeast. But you are correct, the track is undetermined. I might even add at this range that it is entirely possible that the models might be keying on the wrong piece of energy or missing other pieces to the puzzle. Truly, this system is way, way out there. Confluence likes this area during that time frame. Right now, the pattern supports a storm(s) during that time frame of Feb 5-10. It is tough nailing down this clipper, much less a storm eight days out...So, great point. Once it is inside of a week, I will be mildly interested. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 its trying to come back to us just still little to far north with the warm nose Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 Only 30+ more runs of the GFS. Once we are inside of seven days, then we can get serious. Right now, the time frame looks good....that is about all that can be said with any accuracy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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