Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,586
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    23Yankee
    Newest Member
    23Yankee
    Joined

2016-2017 Great Tennessee Valley Winter Discussion


John1122

Recommended Posts

But make no mistake this winter seems bent on humblimg all (who dabble in this as a hobby) who attempt to unlock its secrets.  Weak Nina climo seems to have fantastic weeks of winter w very warm times between.   But I like this unpredictability.  It is like the old days before wx models were accurate past d5.  As long as that extreme cold is lurking in Canada, the models will struggle mightily.  But climo matters and we are about to enter the best time frame for winter wx.   And if that cold continues to stay in Canada, we may have chances into March this year.  That is just a guess.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Replies 1.6k
  • Created
  • Last Reply
9 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

But make no mistake this winter seems bent on humblimg all (who dabble in this as a hobby) who attempt to unlock its secrets.  Weak Nina climo seems to have fantastic weeks of winter w very warm times between.   But I like this unpredictability.  It is like the old days before wx models were accurate past d5.  As long as that extreme cold is lurking in Canada, the models will struggle mightily.  But climo matters and we are about to enter the best time frame for winter wx.   And if that cold continues to stay in Canada, we may have chances into March this year.  That is just a guess.

We will probably get massive blocking in March and everyone's call for summer in March is wrong lol. Probably a total freeze wipe out of vegetation.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, Met1985 said:

Not bad but would like to see the blocking more Easy base in the Gulf of Alaska. 

True.   But it is never perfect.  I am pleased to see some chances popping up now.  I think weak Nina climo will eventually help us.  Wild swings seem to be the norm.  I am happy for those in the West as some areas are building a good snow pack.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

10 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

True.   But it is never perfect.  I am pleased to see some chances popping up now.  I think weak Nina climo will eventually help us.  Wild swings seem to be the norm.  I am happy for those in the West as some areas are building a good snow pack.

Yeah they really need this especially down in California. The mountains there are seeing snow by the feet every storm. It just seems like we have been stuck in a sucky pattern for the past 4 years for winter. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Control shows a Mid lv trough 2-3" to the state line of Tn  ,cut off point is around I-20 about an inch.Don't really trust it,not that you really should  anyways at this range,but at least it's hinting at something anyways.Made a wild swing last night as did the Euro with the short wave for the first part of next week that could bring some severe weather but brought it back this afternoon.Not really sure about the severe either,models don't show a whole lot of  surface convergence 

 

ehi03.conus.png

ehi03.conus.png

ehi03.conus.png

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, John1122 said:

I don't have the Euro panels for that time but I suspect they might not have been far off that 06z run of the GFS in that a storm is going by south of the area.

I would like to see it move just a touch further north really but there is time yet. I had not checked the Euro until you mentioned that lol.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, weathertree4u said:

I would like to see it move just a touch further north really but there is time yet. I had not checked the Euro until you mentioned that lol.

Yes, the Euro has it but it is just at the end of the run and I cannot post of course but at the end of the run, snow is breaking out northern Arkansas southern MO appears to be a touch further north but not by much

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The EPS shows a nice evolution into a pattern that would likely produce a winter event somewhere around the I-40 corridor.  I have highlighted the period between 192 and 240 from the 0z.  A cooperative EPO sends the cold into western and central NA and the ridging (-NAO), along with a piece of the polar vortex just south of the NAO region would provide the confluence to beat down the SE ridge for a bit.  Broad southwesterly winds from the southwest and any imbedded impulses would provide the moisture transport.

I can't guarantee the forecast by the EPS is right and I can't say how big the window would be (if it IS right), but this "look", if it comes to fruition, the I-40 corridor (and potentially areas further south) would likely have a greater than 50/50 chance to deliver the goods somewhere in the area i mentioned.  

In simplistic terms, I'd caution against looking at any storm verbatim (good or bad) in the 7-12 day period.  Watch for the EPO and NAO regions for consistency and to see that we are reeling in that time period.  

If we do, get your tracking shoes on as something will likely pop that will be trackable in the 5-6 day range.  

EPS 192 12272016 valid 0z Wed Jan 4 2017.png

EPS 216 12272016 valid 0z Jan 5th 2017.png

EPS 240 12272016 valid 0z Fri Jan 6 2017.png

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Euro weeklies are friendly to the colder extended forecast. Week 2-3 are shown slightly colder than normal here, definitely cold in the Midwest, and still mild on the immediate Gulf Coast. Upstairs the Alaska and Greenland tag team ridges are forecast.

CFS wavers in Greenland week 3 but comes back week 4 (Euro weeks; CFS week 2 wavers). One might be able to infer two good cold fronts from it. Of course snow lovers want more than one cold episode as insurance against forecast debacles.

Last, and least this far out, models hint at winter precip Day 9-10. 00Z GFS actually goes severe wx, but 06Z GFS keeps in line with the colder Euro. All Ensemble products have the colder farther south storm track. While I love the track out of Texas straight east, it is many days away. Greenland ridging (cold) will battle stubborn Florida short-wave ridging (mild). I hope they balance, and guide low pressure favorably for snow here.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

8 minutes ago, nrgjeff said:

Euro weeklies are friendly to the colder extended forecast. Week 2-3 are shown slightly colder than normal here, definitely cold in the Midwest, and still mild on the immediate Gulf Coast. Upstairs the Alaska and Greenland tag team ridges are forecast.

CFS

 

Thanks for the updates guys!  Especially the friendly ones!!!!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 minutes ago, nrgjeff said:

Euro weeklies are friendly to the colder extended forecast. Week 2-3 are shown slightly colder than normal here, definitely cold in the Midwest, and still mild on the immediate Gulf Coast. Upstairs the Alaska and Greenland tag team ridges are forecast.

CFS

 

So it's persistence vs. a true pattern change.  Fascinating battle shaping up.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

40 minutes ago, nrgjeff said:

Euro weeklies are friendly to the colder extended forecast. Week 2-3 are shown slightly colder than normal here, definitely cold in the Midwest, and still mild on the immediate Gulf Coast. Upstairs the Alaska and Greenland tag team ridges are forecast.

CFS wavers in Greenland week 3 but comes back week 4 (Euro weeks; CFS week 2 wavers). One might be able to infer two good cold fronts from it. Of course snow lovers want more than one cold episode as insurance against forecast debacles.

Last, and least this far out, models hint at winter precip Day 9-10. 00Z GFS actually goes severe wx, but 06Z GFS keeps in line with the colder Euro. All Ensemble products have the colder farther south storm track. While I love the track out of Texas straight east, it is many days away. Greenland ridging (cold) will battle stubborn Florida short-wave ridging (mild). I hope they balance, and guide low pressure favorably for snow here.

 

Great stuff Jeff. You have been solid all season long.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, Mrwolf1972 said:

Hope the 12z gfs just a bad run its bringing the storm more north with valley warming less snowfall .

I wouldn't take any solution (good or bad) verbatim this far out.  Keep an eye on the general pattern until 4-6 days out, then look to fine tune as any specific threats come into view.  :-)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I am w tnweathernut...have to like this look.  Give us the pattern and we have a much better chance at the event.  A great tip for a Tropical Tidbits.  Take the hour on the map posted below and then toggle model runs on their website.  Their software will convert the same time to other runs and accommodate for passage of time.  Thus, you can look at several model runs for that point in time.  Notice how much better this time frame keeps getting.  Blocking is having an impact.  Used to be a trough in the west not too many runs ago.

IMG_0214.PNG

Link to comment
Share on other sites

13 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

I am w tnweathernut...have to like this look.  Give us the pattern and we have a much better chance at the event.  A great tip for a Tropical Tidbits.  Take the hour on the map posted below and then toggle model runs on their website.  Their software will convert the same time to other runs and accommodate for passage of time.  Thus, you can look at several model runs for that point in time.  Notice how much better this time frame keeps getting.  Blocking is having an impact.  Used to be a trough in the west not too many runs ago.

IMG_0214.PNG

Yep agree with you both. The runs keep getting better and should be cautiously monitored but by no means looks like a straight up torch.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...