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2016 Atlantic Tropical Discussion:Atlantic Looks Active North of 20N

bluewave

By bluewave,
in New York City Metro

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larrye

larrye

Posted
Posted
4 hours ago, NJwx85 said:

Have you even looked at the 4k NAM?

It's showing 950mb at landfall.

Like I said, enough with the NAM nonsense.

It's less useful than **** on a bull with tropical systems over the ocean. It might be useful once it comes onshore.

Look, the mods don't want the N_M discussed here, LOL. Yes it overdoes intensity and precip ... almost always. But so does the HWRF. I think it's kind of hypocritical to wishcast using the HWRF and then be critical of someone who does it using the N_M.

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NJwx85

NJwx85

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, larrye said:

Look, the mods don't want the N_M discussed here, LOL. Yes it overdoes intensity and precip ... almost always. But so does the HWRF. I think it's kind of hypocritical to wishcast using the HWRF and then be critical of someone who does it using the N_M.

Nothing hypocritical about using a tropical model to forecast tropical weather. Sorry but you're wrong. You wouldn't use the HWRF to forecast a nor'easter in January.

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wthrmn654

wthrmn654

Posted
Posted

Upton tidal update at 11 


.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
-- Changed Discussion --

Depending on future track and intensity...Hermine could produce significant coastal flooding, battering surf and dune erosion, and dangerous rip currents this Labor Day weekend. Given predicted astronomical high tides for Saturday Evening into Monday, most places would require surge of 1.5 to 2.5 ft at high tide for minor flooding, 3.0 to 3.5 ft for moderate flooding...and 4 to 5 ft for major flooding. At this point...a reasonable worst case scenario would include potential for moderate to major flood thresholds to be reached. Still considerable uncertainty with the track and intensity of this system...so continue to monitor the latest forecasts.

-- End Changed Discussion --

 

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MJO812

MJO812

Posted
Posted
11 minutes ago, larrye said:

On this 0Z GFS run, it seems to retrograde and looks to me like the heavier precip actually gets up north of NYC on Sunday afternoon/evening. Then doesn't head E/NE until Monday morning/afternoon and still affects LI until late Monday. 

Same as the GGEM

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Rjay

Rjay

Posted
Posted
17 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Ukie is way further east and doesn't retrogade back

 

Every model went east tonight

Check back tomorrow for new solutions lol

 It was def further east but it does retrograde very late and backs in towards CC between hrs 96 and 120 before going OTS.

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Rjay

Rjay

Posted
Posted
17 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Ukie is way further east and doesn't retrogade back

 

Every model went east tonight

Check back tomorrow for new solutions lol

 It was def further east but it does retrograde very late and backs in towards CC between hrs 96 and 120 before going OTS.

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Rtd208

Rtd208

Posted
Posted

Really tough forecast going into the weekend that is for sure, I think today and tomorrow's model runs will be critical. Also doesn't help that we are going into a new moon with tides expected to be astronomically high on top of it being the last true shore weekend of the summer, alot for forecasters and emergency managers to take into consideration. 

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