2016 Atlantic Tropical Discussion:Atlantic Looks Active North of 20N

[nesussxwx]

Tropical Storm Hermine has been born.

[SnoSki14]

Bad timing with the holiday weekend but we could use some rain. Hopefully the high isn't so strong that it keeps the system south.

[winterwarlock]

24 minutes ago, BxEngine said:

When you create new(er) accounts, maybe try a new schtick? At least one that hasnt failed you constantly in the past?

For the record ITs not me

[nesussxwx]

Mods can delete if they want. Euro landfall hr 42

 

[nesussxwx]

hr 63

EURO is WAY west of 0z run. About 75-100 miles west

[nesussxwx]

hr 72, loving it

 

 

 

[nesussxwx]

HOLY SHT. Euro tucks in hr 96 

[Jason WX]

Euro!!!!

[nesussxwx]

Stalled off Atlantic City hr 99, tucked in.

[nesussxwx]

EURO. we get destroyed.

[Brian5671]

big rains as it stalls and then drifts west.  That block won't let it out.

[allgame830]

1 minute ago, Brian5671 said:

big rains as it stalls and then drifts west.  That block won't let it out.

How far north does the northern extent of the rain get on the EURO?  Winds?

[MJO812]

It gets stronger as it heads northward into the area

[Allsnow]

Historic storm on the euro 

[Brian5671]

3 minutes ago, allgame830 said:

How far north does the northern extent of the rain get on the EURO?  Winds?

into CT and the Hudson Valley-not sure on winds

[bluewave]

12z Euro has 81KT gusts Jersey Shore to 64KT LI South Shore.

Strengthens 10 mb after moving off the VA Capes before getting pulled back into DEL Bay by the UL

and then looping OTS later on. Looks like UL Phase and and record SST's off SNJ give it a boost

combining with strong high gradient to north for winds.

[NJwx85]

The strongest winds and heaviest rains make it about as far North as Rt. 80, but keep in mind that we'll likely be dealing with banding features that will produce locally heavier rain capable of bringing down stronger winds to the surface. Still, the Euro is a solid 30-40MPH wind driven rainstorm just about everywhere. 

The Euro even brings 60MPH winds into the NY Harbor area on Sunday morning/afternoon. 

Rainfall this run is a modest 1-3" with a JP of 12"+ over the Delmarva. 

Ideally you want this to make it up to about LBI before making the loop instead of Ocean City, MD. That would bring in much stronger winds and heavier rains.

[Brian5671]

2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

The strongest winds and heaviest rains make it about as far North as Rt. 80, but keep in mind that we'll likely be dealing with banding features that will produce locally heavier rain capable of bringing down stronger winds to the surface. Still, the Euro is a solid 30-40MPH wind driven rainstorm just about everywhere. 

The Euro even brings 60MPH winds into the NY Harbor area on Sunday morning/afternoon. 

Rainfall this run is a modest 1-3" with a JP of 12"+ over the Delmarva. 

Ideally you want this to make it up to about LBI before making the loop instead of Ocean City, MD. That would bring in much stronger winds and heavier rains.

good recap, thank you.  Similar to alot of events which are affected by blocking-it will come down to how far north the center can get before being halted by the block.  models will waver in how strong the block is, and 50 miles one way or the other will make a huge difference in such a densly populated area.

[nesussxwx]

hr 96 10m wind gust

hr 102 10m wind gust

 

 

 

 

[bluewave]

4 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

good recap, thank you.  Similar to alot of events which are affected by blocking-it will come down to how far north the center can get before being halted by the block.  models will waver in how strong the block is, and 50 miles one way or the other will make a huge difference in such a densly populated area.

It looks like the key will be getting it to track over those record SST's like the Euro is showing and not just inland like GFS for the strongest impact.

 

[NJwx85]

3 minutes ago, UnionWX said:

hr 96 10m winds

hr 102 10m winds

 

 

 

 

It would be much worse if this continued to go inland before filling and weakening.

[BxEngine]

37 minutes ago, winterwarlock said:

For the record ITs not me

Heh, i know. All good.

[dmillz25]

Wow the euro with the hammer 

[NJwx85]

Now that we have a consensus expect the 18z GFS to track this towards Bermuda 

[Jason WX]

Euro 192 lol

[Morris]

1 minute ago, Jason WX said:

Euro 192 lol

lol

[dmillz25]

47 minutes ago, winterwarlock said:

For the record ITs not me

Damn sure sounds like you lol

[Allsnow]

6-12 of rain for DE and jersey shore on the euro 

[Jason WX]

omg LOL

[NJwx85]

Yeah, the Euro keeps Hermine around so long that it actually loops almost all the way back to OBX where it deepens again LMAO.

How freaking awesome would that be