thewxmann Posted April 26, 2016 Share Posted April 26, 2016 Area VAD's at VNX and ICT show less VBV than points further south. May be why those supercells have been able to initiate and flourish in the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonbo Posted April 26, 2016 Share Posted April 26, 2016 These initial storms are looking really nice on radar. Velocity not as impressive yet but it's promising to see them having hooks this early in their life. Though the storm near Ames, OK seems to be getting some inflow on velocity. Something to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted April 26, 2016 Share Posted April 26, 2016 4PM EST SPC update has no changes to stuff in this subforum, surprising seeing how there is a HUGE PDS Watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southmdwatcher Posted April 26, 2016 Share Posted April 26, 2016 10% hatched Tor's allows for a PDS Tor watch with 90/80 probs??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted April 26, 2016 Share Posted April 26, 2016 So we have a 10% tor with a 90/80 PDS watch. Apparently we've officially entered the twilight zone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted April 26, 2016 Share Posted April 26, 2016 Look like the Supercell west of Enid has a nice circulation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted April 26, 2016 Share Posted April 26, 2016 So we have a 10% tor with a 90/80 PDS watch. Apparently we've officially entered the twilight zone. Yeah, doesn't quite add up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted April 26, 2016 Share Posted April 26, 2016 10% hatched Tor's allows for a PDS Tor watch with 90/80 probs??? So we have a 10% tor with a 90/80 PDS watch. Apparently we've officially entered the twilight zone. Yeah, doesn't quite add up. I think it might just be the SPC's thing of hardly changing jack at the 3PM Central update, but seriously this is one of the weirdest things the SPC has ever done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted April 26, 2016 Share Posted April 26, 2016 Look like the Supercell west of Enid has a nice circulation It barely has a mid-level meso looking at higher tilts from VNX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1900hurricane Posted April 26, 2016 Share Posted April 26, 2016 Considering the large PDS watch, and the large unchanged area of hatched 10% tornado risk from the latest SPC outlook, I wonder if the SPC thinks someone is going to be primed for something bigger, but doesn't have any confidence in the placement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted April 26, 2016 Share Posted April 26, 2016 Pretty impressive classic-looking supercells... 1. West of Enid, OK, 2. West of Caldwell, KS headed toward ICT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted April 26, 2016 Share Posted April 26, 2016 Considering the large PDS watch, and the large unchanged area of hatched 10% tornado risk from the latest SPC outlook, I wonder if the SPC thinks someone is going to be primed for something bigger, but doesn't have any confidence in the placement. that's my thought on that. No one area has an identifiably better tornado threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted April 26, 2016 Share Posted April 26, 2016 It barely has a mid-level meso looking at higher tilts from VNX. odd because from VNX on SRV on national weather service website it had a pretty nice circulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1900hurricane Posted April 26, 2016 Share Posted April 26, 2016 Might have the first cell trying to fire a little west of Seymour. Has a reflectivity presence in the higher tilts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SluggerWx Posted April 26, 2016 Share Posted April 26, 2016 Crazy inflow on the cell just W of Enid, OK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jason WX Posted April 26, 2016 Share Posted April 26, 2016 First tornado warning posted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OhioWX Posted April 26, 2016 Share Posted April 26, 2016 First tornado warning of the day for Sumner County, KS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted April 26, 2016 Share Posted April 26, 2016 Tornado warning on the north cell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted April 26, 2016 Share Posted April 26, 2016 Both cell's developing good hooks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted April 26, 2016 Share Posted April 26, 2016 Yeah, but neither have very strong rotation. Going to need low level flow to ramp up a bit, it's still quite early before the LLJ intensification. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted April 26, 2016 Share Posted April 26, 2016 Almost all highs! Edit: probabilities Tor: 90% PDS Tor: 80% Svr Wind: 90% Sig Wind: 40% Hail: >95% Sig Hail: >95% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted April 26, 2016 Share Posted April 26, 2016 Yeah, but neither have very strong rotation. Going to need low level flow to ramp up a bit, it's still quite early before the LLJ intensification. just will have to wait and see... Still at least a weak-tornado threat for the time being. Did you even expect discrete supercells coming off the dryline at 20Z? Probably not... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted April 26, 2016 Share Posted April 26, 2016 We'll see about that... Still at least a weak-tornado threat for the time being. Did you even expect discrete supercells coming off the dryline at 20Z? Probably not... Actually yes, I did expect initiation quite early. Stop being a snarky jackass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted April 26, 2016 Share Posted April 26, 2016 TOR Warning SW of Topeka along the outflow boundary/warm front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted April 26, 2016 Share Posted April 26, 2016 Looks like some more convection is developing around that lead tornado-warned storm. Bleh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted April 26, 2016 Share Posted April 26, 2016 Actually yes, I did expect initiation quite early. Stop being a snarky jackass. then you stop being one too. You expected early initiation but probably just a conglomerate mess. Didn't know cursing was allowed on this forum? Hmm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted April 26, 2016 Share Posted April 26, 2016 Probably need another hour or two of modestly improving low level shear to have a real chance. The million dollar question is: are SW OK and NW TX better positioned to take advantage of that by initiating later, or is it simply that the stronger cap south will be only be overcome when strong forcing arrives and lights the whole dryline up at once, with nearly immediate quasi-linear mode? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted April 26, 2016 Share Posted April 26, 2016 Helicity is still fairly low on the ICT cell but higher farther north in KS. The surface low is beginning to deepen and the LLJ will ramp up later. Initial rotation will probably result in large hail as has been mentioned but tor threat will increase later on. I am impressed at what we are seeing this early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted April 26, 2016 Share Posted April 26, 2016 then you stop being one too. You expected early initiation but probably just a conglomerate mess. Didn't know cursing was allowed on this forum? Hmm. You have had multiple posts in this thread like this and others have advised you to stop, but you keep doing it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted April 26, 2016 Share Posted April 26, 2016 In other news, TVNWeather is down (too much web traffic). Brandon Sullivan's stream: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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