Winter 2016/2017 because its never too early

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

that description is a decent redux of 1995-1996 ...  albeit, sans the magnitude.

which that year had plenty.  

i was up a UML as an undergrad in a waste of time degree program ... when cool air seemed to come in a like a wall in late October.  if memory serves, there may have been oonnne last sort of warm attempt there in the first week or so of Novie, but then we were kissed by a 2-5 in mix event around mid month and it was no turning back.  

thing is, ..also as memory serves, said wall moved slowly S through SNE into the upper MA...then south in time.  if you were north of the proverbial line, winter, ...south? you kept reclaiming late heat.  it was weirdly gradiented in that way.  but, eventually (obviously) the cold one; culminating in that Jan 6-9 megalopolis blizzard.

but, between ~ Nov 10 and that late January thaw that swept over ...the whole of the Eastern Seaboard for that matter, interior central Mass and probably much of Central NE were waaay above normal snow with below normal cold .. sustaining pack the whole way.   

the thaw was amazing.  huge hemispheric R-wave roll-back and the semi-perm trough retro'ed clear o MN, where they got a decent 2 week pounding.  we here went through three distinct cutters that swept 45 to 60 F DP air mass clear to Ontario.  said snow pack? gone ... for the most part.  that winter was a heading for 110% GPA until that thaw happened, instead, just a solid A.  

winter did come back for solid 30 days from mid Feb ...actually, there were couple frosting on the cake early April events that lobbed another 10 to 20 on top of seasonal totals just to make the headlines prettier.   

fluffy I still think that was more impressive than that 5 weeks a couple years ago... because that snow cheated by being too fluffy - but i don't want to inspire any poster rage based upon symbolically impugning the sanctity snow, either...

Thing is, John, 2015 ended up with the much higher WE snowpack. 1996 went from fluffy to vapor..

I think 2015 was mor impressive, but it is debatable.

[Ginx snewx]

11 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Thing is, John, 2015 ended up with the much higher WE snowpack. 1996 went from fluffy to vapor..

I think 2015 was mor impressive, but it is debatable.

95/96 was an event lovers winter but doesn't come close to 15 for intensity of snow cold wind. Having a month of brown mid winter took the luster off. The 2 thaws and rainstorms in Jan ruined an all timer. The April storms were however spectacular in their intensity and anamoly . I don't know where this fluffy 15 came from, there was 8 inches of qpf in spots, 96 never cracked 4

[40/70 Benchmark]

13 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

95/96 was an event lovers winter but doesn't come close to 15 for intensity of snow cold wind. Having a month of brown mid winter took the luster off. The 2 thaws and rainstorms in Jan ruined an all timer. The April storms were however spectacular in their intensity and anamoly . I don't know where this fluffy 15 came from, there was 8 inches of qpf in spots, 96 never cracked 4

Exactly.

I think what he means is that each of the events were low WE in and of themselves, but there were just so many of them and the melt was gradual, thus the WE was allowed to increase over a very protracted period. 

Most of that 1996 stretch was also fluffy, but when it was done it vaporized....no slow release.

[Ginx snewx]

5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Exactly.

I think what he means is that each of the events were low WE in and of themselves, but there were just so many of them and the melt was gradual, thus the WE was allowed to increase over a very protracted period. 

Most of that 1996 stretch was also fluffy, but when it was done it vaporized....no flow release.

There was some flooding but lots of rain, nothing like the MA where it was devastating 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, Ginx snewx said:

There was some flooding but lots of rain, nothing like the MA where it was devastating 

Yea, there was some flooding because it melted so quickly...thankfully we had a very gradual melt of 8" WE in 2015.

[Typhoon Tip]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Exactly.

I think what he means is that each of the events were low WE in and of themselves, but there were just so many of them and the melt was gradual, thus the WE was allowed to increase over a very protracted period. 

Most of that 1996 stretch was also fluffy, but when it was done it vaporized....no flow release.

...thing is, I don't know if that's all really true.  I lived both; I don't recall it that way.  Perhaps that was the case where some people were at the time- okay, but where I was, there was more water content in 1995-1996.   

It had to have, theoretically anyway, because it was never 4 F during snow in 1995-1996 like it was in half those events in 2015.  

But, I'm sure the data is out there somewhere if any of us cares to go and find it.  1995-1996 was not "fluffy" .. . it was a denser pack.  

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

...thing is, I don't know if that's all really true.  I lived both; I don't recall it that way.  Perhaps that was the case where some people were at the time- okay, but where I was, there was more water content in 1995-1996.   

It had to have, theoretically anyway, because it was never 4 F during snow in 1995-1996 like it was in half those events in 2015.  

But, I'm sure the data is out there somewhere if any of us cares to go and find it.  1995-1996 was not "fluffy" .. . it was a denser pack.  

I think you are wrong, and I'm quite certain the data will illustrate that.

 

Again, what you are missing is the fact that 1996 melted out to0 quickly to allow the pack to linger and obtain the water.

[Typhoon Tip]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think you are wrong, and I'm quite certain the data will illustrate that.

okay.

not sure where any of this coming from.  sounds like you want to encourage a confrontation frankly and I don't care too.

i half joking with Cod' in the first place.  

who the f care which winter had more water in the snow,.  i don't.  

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

okay.

not sure where any of this coming from.  sounds like you want to encourage a confrontation frankly and I don't care too.

i half joking with Cod' in the first place.  

who the f care which winter had more water in the snow,.  i don't.  

You debated the point, that is where it came from.

I didn't attack you personally.

Don't get butt-hurt.

 

[Typhoon Tip]

45 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

You debated the point, that is where it came from.

I didn't attack you personally.

Don't get butt-hurt.

 

I remember debating it like last April or something. I'm not debating anything presently and never was. I merely made a comment and jest to cod and you guys responded to that, so no I think you're the one that that got overly sensitive and I think exposingly so to. Just think Ray it's entirely possible that 2015 was not the worst winter and best snow in history despite the numbers. 

That ought to poke the hornets nest good and plenty

[40/70 Benchmark]

29 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I remember debating it like last April or something. I'm not debating anything presently and never was. I merely made a comment and jest to cod and you guys responded to that, so no I think you're the one that that got overly sensitive and I think exposingly so to. Just think Ray it's entirely possible that 2015 was not the worst winter and best snow in history despite the numbers. 

That ought to poke the hornets nest good and plenty

Obviously.

Anyway, I'd be interested in seeing a WE map from the pinnace of both seasons if anyone has access to the archive of that particular tool.

The issue was always that, despite the effort to transition things to more of a subjective DISCO over the better winter.

 

 

[USCAPEWEATHERAF]

That 95-96 winter in my distant memory, not a big weather fan until the year of 2004, as I don't remember most events before than as I wasn't as interested in them, but that winter of 95-96 I remember the Blizzard of 96 quite well.  I was supposed to have a friend over from school that day of the 8th, and he cancelled because there was at least 18-24" in my front yard, lol.  I was mad, but sledding down the street was pretty cool, so overall it wasn't a bad storm.  I also remember the 2003 storms, they both occurred during which time my grandparents were babysitting us as my parents went to St. Thomas Caribbean.  We got about 12-15" in both storms, and my parents returned in time for the second storm, PDII storm.

[J Paul Gordon]

Any new met forecasts? Trying to keep up. A lot of good stuff happening weatherwise so its tough to keep up with the threads. Anyone thinking of getting the winter outlooks all together and pinning them?

 

[CoastalWx]

There is no question 2015 had way more WE than the peak of Jan 96 around my hood. I think 2015 and 96 may be close out near ORH after they had that snow event on 1-13-96 or thereabouts. 

[ORH_wxman]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

There is no question 2015 had way more WE than the peak of Jan 96 around my hood. I think 2015 and 96 may be close out near ORH after they had that snow event on 1-13-96 or thereabouts. 

 

Its' pretty close in ORH...I don't have good W.E. numbers because the ASOS is an absolute abomination for snow W.E. But if you go by total snowfall and the fact there were basically zero mix events during both stretches, then it's close. None of the snowfalls in ORH were wet either in Dec '95 through early Jan '96 . The 1/12/96 event did get really close to sleet at the end and got some brief freezing rain in the Dec 9, 1995 event, but it was negligible for our discussion...it was so brief anyway. The snow in that storm was probably the meatiest of the bunch though being close to 10 to 1.

 

But both of those winters are actually inferior to the snow water equivalent in March 2001 at the ORH location. That was probably just shy of 4 feet of snow with something like 12 inches of water in it. It was something else.

[Ginx snewx]

 Lots of talk about the PV attacked and NAO today. Winter is close 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

There is no question 2015 had way more WE than the peak of Jan 96 around my hood. I think 2015 and 96 may be close out near ORH after they had that snow event on 1-13-96 or thereabouts. 

Not close throughout most of e MA, i suspect.

[CoastalWx]

It may be closer than you think for your hood? Do you remember what you got in 1/12/96?  That storm started the drop kick to crotch parade for the rest of the month. You and ORH at least got good snows in that. 

[J Paul Gordon]

And, minus the hysterical hyperbole about suffering torchers as we proceed, where are the really good winter forecasts we often start seeing around this time of year?

Not looking for the Monday morning 6:59 time stamp that reads: "Historic winter ahead. No thaw. 200"+ on the massif" followed by a 7:05 time stamp that reads: "Winter cancelled! Torch after Torch right through March"

Sorry to belabor this, but its been hard to find those well thought out predictions this year. Is it the leftover from last years Super Nino or the onset of a weak Nina that's making it hard to get a handle on what's heading our way? Or, is it just too early to stick out one's neck?

[CoastalWx]

  Winter forecasts are tough enough as it is for temps. Then, you throw in snowfall which is further governed by chaos and small scale features and it becomes very tough to put out something worthwhile. The Bastardi's  and Twitter weenies of the world have already put out forecasts. 

[ORH_wxman]

PYM had like a 44" snowpack in January 1996...their highest of all time and I'm pretty sure a few other coops had over 40". I bet it was pretty close in many spots in E MA....it just got obliterated within 10 days vs about 40 days in 2015. Now there's obviously some local jackpots where 2015 was clearly higher W.E. like near Scooter and probably even BOS proper. But I would not be surprised if parts of SE MA were actually better at the peak in '96. 

[CoastalWx]

51 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

PYM had like a 44" snowpack in January 1996...their highest of all time and I'm pretty sure a few other coops had over 40". I bet it was pretty close in many spots in E MA....it just got obliterated within 10 days vs about 40 days in 2015. Now there's obviously some local jackpots where 2015 was clearly higher W.E. like near Scooter and probably even BOS proper. But I would not be surprised if parts of SE MA were actually better at the peak in '96. 

I think you are right down in that SE corner of the state. It definitely is a tough call because the 2015 long duration event was a 2"+ WE storm. It wasn't exactly a powder puff event. But you go to PYM and south it was a bit of a mix for a small part of that event.  

[ORH_wxman]

1 hour ago, J Paul Gordon said:

And, minus the hysterical hyperbole about suffering torchers as we proceed, where are the really good winter forecasts we often start seeing around this time of year?

Not looking for the Monday morning 6:59 time stamp that reads: "Historic winter ahead. No thaw. 200"+ on the massif" followed by a 7:05 time stamp that reads: "Winter cancelled! Torch after Torch right through March"

Sorry to belabor this, but its been hard to find those well thought out predictions this year. Is it the leftover from last years Super Nino or the onset of a weak Nina that's making it hard to get a handle on what's heading our way? Or, is it just too early to stick out one's neck?

You typically see a bunch more forecasts come out after October ends. You have the SAI available and also the October index numbers which can have some correlation. 

That said, this year is difficult because there isn't a dominant ENSO signal and other index numbers so far are kind of contradictory. 

[CoolMike]

3 hours ago, J Paul Gordon said:

And, minus the hysterical hyperbole about suffering torchers as we proceed, where are the really good winter forecasts we often start seeing around this time of year?

Not looking for the Monday morning 6:59 time stamp that reads: "Historic winter ahead. No thaw. 200"+ on the massif" followed by a 7:05 time stamp that reads: "Winter cancelled! Torch after Torch right through March"

Sorry to belabor this, but its been hard to find those well thought out predictions this year. Is it the leftover from last years Super Nino or the onset of a weak Nina that's making it hard to get a handle on what's heading our way? Or, is it just too early to stick out one's neck?

I think part of the problem is the spectacular fail of the SAI in recent memory.

We finally had something that looked skillful for a seasonal AO/NAO outlook - only to see it fail by a >5 sigma counter-example (really demolishing the previously pretty good correlation).  Now it seems like we're left to wonder if any method of tracking the atmosphere and oceans in October has any skill for determining basic elements of the climate / weather in January.  Perhaps not.

 

In other news I've repeatedly been seeing skinny squirrels in my neck of the woods - I find this a foreboding signal for this winter.

[Damage In Tolland]

Pretty good winter discussion and forecast here. I'm not familiar with this guy. Is he reputable?

http://www.vencoreweather.com/blog/2016/10/24/2016-2017-winter-outlook-by-vencore-weather

[tamarack]

4 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

PYM had like a 44" snowpack in January 1996...their highest of all time and I'm pretty sure a few other coops had over 40". I bet it was pretty close in many spots in E MA....it just got obliterated within 10 days vs about 40 days in 2015. Now there's obviously some local jackpots where 2015 was clearly higher W.E. like near Scooter and probably even BOS proper. But I would not be surprised if parts of SE MA were actually better at the peak in '96. 

Tall 'pack for that part of the world, and reinforces why, despite the big snowfall, 95-96 is way down the list of favorites for me.  The biggest storms stayed south, my deepest snow at my (then) home south of Augusta was 28" and the cutters slashed that to 5", disappointingly anomalous for January.  The Farmington co-op got to 40" before being hammered back to 8", with ice jam flooding on the Sandy.  In Feb the pack built to 21" early and back to 7" late, early March saw a climb to 23" then down to zero 3 days after the equinox, a week or so ahead of the avg end of continuous cover.  Even the 20" that came in April only produced 2 days with measurable OG (by a long-time conscientious observer - just got a citation for 50 years service.)  That winter was my snowiest (138.8") at Gardiner by 30", yet was only 5th of 13 there for SDDs.  I'd much prefer a 93-94 or 13-14 with long and deep pack, though fewer inches of snowfall.  YMMV

[uncle W]

the best MEI analogs for 2016 to this point are 1959-60, 1966-67, 1978-79, 1995-96...

[ORH_wxman]

13 minutes ago, tamarack said:

Tall 'pack for that part of the world, and reinforces why, despite the big snowfall, 95-96 is way down the list of favorites for me.  The biggest storms stayed south, my deepest snow at my (then) home south of Augusta was 28" and the cutters slashed that to 5", disappointingly anomalous for January.  The Farmington co-op got to 40" before being hammered back to 8", with ice jam flooding on the Sandy.  In Feb the pack built to 21" early and back to 7" late, early March saw a climb to 23" then down to zero 3 days after the equinox, a week or so ahead of the avg end of continuous cover.  Even the 20" that came in April only produced 2 days with measurable OG (by a long-time conscientious observer - just got a citation for 50 years service.)  That winter was my snowiest (138.8") at Gardiner by 30", yet was only 5th of 13 there for SDDs.  I'd much prefer a 93-94 or 13-14 with long and deep pack, though fewer inches of snowfall.  YMMV

 

No argument from me that '95-'96 was really tainted by the big snow melt at times, it's not even in my top 3 favorite winters, though probably top 5. Though I do come to appreciate December 1995 more and more...that was literally unending winter. Not overly common in SNE to basically go wire to wire without any major warmth in the month of December with a plethora of snow events to boot....more common up your way as the seasonal gradient has typically encroached more permanently into NNE by then. Even during our pretty good run of Decembers from 2000-2010, we had a lot of ugly thaws, which is part of what makes Dec '95 so pristine in memory now. But Jan/Feb '96 were frustrating for sure even though the total snow in those months was quite prolific.

[ORH_wxman]

4 minutes ago, uncle W said:

the best MEI analogs for 2016 to this point are 1959-60, 1966-67, 1978-79, 1995-96...

 

Those were all pretty good winters here sans '78-'79...but I would roll the dice with '78-'79 again. The overall larger scale pattern was pretty good. We just couldn't quite get the smaller details to work out...either cutter or whiff south.

[uncle W]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

 

Those were all pretty good winters here sans '78-'79...but I would roll the dice with '78-'79 again. The overall larger scale pattern was pretty good. We just couldn't quite get the smaller details to work out...either cutter or whiff south.

78-79 is fourth behind the others...it went positive on the mei scale for the winter months while the other three were negative...