IWXwx Posted March 29, 2016 Share Posted March 29, 2016 Might as well get the ball rolling for April (my personal official beginning of spring). Right now CFSv2 is liking a warmer than normal month. If it verifies the last three weeks will have to be toasty by April standards, since the first week looks to be below normal for most of the sub. Not a real strong signal precip-wise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted March 29, 2016 Share Posted March 29, 2016 Wet and Warm, might be a good month for storm chasing hopefully! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 30, 2016 Share Posted March 30, 2016 Hoping April isn't dry. No good comes from a dry April for agriculture. Last couple CFS runs have warmed up the region, especially the farther southwest you go. For Friday the GFS has a little bit of snow streaking through the area. Grids are starting to reflect that. EURO has the Monday clipper coming pretty far south into lower MI. Grand Rapids to Lake St. Clair on north with 3"+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 31, 2016 Share Posted March 31, 2016 Not a sure thing by any means but parameters may become just favorable enough for some light lake effect snow somewhere in northeast IL/northwest IN early next week. Not noteworthy for anything other than the time of year (I do recall seeing some lake effect snow in mid April 2001 when I lived in this area) and the airmass as progged is marginal for lake effect development...if it modifies then lake effect won't happen and if it comes in colder then it would make it more likely, though fetch could get cut down with time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 31, 2016 Share Posted March 31, 2016 EURO showing some snow for MI, NE OH, Ontario this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted March 31, 2016 Share Posted March 31, 2016 We may be in the 40s for much of the next week, but at least Sunday is now looking warm on all the models. After a cold start, we may hit 70. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 31, 2016 Share Posted March 31, 2016 EURO showing some snow for MI, NE OH, Ontario this weekend. eurosnow_033116.png I doubt we get much here, temperatures are very marginal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdrenken Posted March 31, 2016 Share Posted March 31, 2016 SOI Drop and More Organic Forecasting Support Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 31, 2016 Share Posted March 31, 2016 Looking for optimism going forward...so far we've seen some decent EML/steep lapse rate setups in this young season. Have had some moisture quality issues but it is March and more prone to that. At least the next week to 10 days looks like a hostile pattern to say the least in terms of severe prospects. Yeah the next 10 days look torched but the pattern will relax back and the later half of April into May looks prime. The strength of the EML thus far has been impressive and if we can maintain that with better moisture later next month we will be golden. SOI Drop and More Organic Forecasting Support Just to collect these posts together for further discussion. The GFS has been consistently showing things going from a High AAM to a lower AAM, when you get the AAM in a phase 1/2 as shown with the forecast below: That usually signals a potential for a bigger severe weather outbreak potential. Here is a great write up from Dr Ventrice with regards to last year's drop in AAM: http://business.weather.com/blog/atmospheric-angular-momentum-to-drop-this-week-the-driving-mechanism-and-future-implications-this-summer-1 In this post he brings up this point with respect to lower AAM Low AAM states are often associated with increased trough passages over the West and Southeastern U.S. ridge development. While the models are indicating increased ridge development over FL in through the Caribbean, there will likely be a strong upper-level cold trough anchored over the Northeast in response to a high-latitude blocked pattern over the North Pole and Greenland. This would lead me to believe that the Euro Weeklies showing the lower heights in the west and southwest beyond day 10 with the ridge pumping up in the east, has some credibility to the forecast. In other words the 10 day lull we are experiencing starting tomorrow will give way to potentially active/very active pattern especially if we can lock in a low AAM for a prolonged period in Phase 1/2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdrenken Posted March 31, 2016 Share Posted March 31, 2016 Just to collect these posts together for further discussion. The GFS has been consistently showing things going from a High AAM to a lower AAM, when you get the AAM in a phase 1/2 as shown with the forecast below: That usually signals a potential for a bigger severe weather outbreak potential. Here is a great write up from Dr Ventrice with regards to last year's drop in AAM: http://business.weather.com/blog/atmospheric-angular-momentum-to-drop-this-week-the-driving-mechanism-and-future-implications-this-summer-1 In this post he brings up this point with respect to lower AAM This would lead me to believe that the Euro Weeklies showing the lower heights in the west and southwest beyond day 10 with the ridge pumping up in the east, has some credibility to the forecast. In other words the 10 day lull we are experiencing starting tomorrow will give way to potentially active/very active pattern especially if we can lock in a low AAM for a prolonged period in Phase 1/2. A favorite saying of mine is "It's all related!" Sent from my S50 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted March 31, 2016 Share Posted March 31, 2016 EURO showing some snow for MI, NE OH, Ontario this weekend. eurosnow_033116.png Awful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 1, 2016 Share Posted April 1, 2016 For you guys in the path of the clipper tomorrow, SPC has added a general thunder area. Maybe somebody can score some thundersnow. ..LOWER GREAT LAKES/UPPER OHIO VALLEY STEEPENING LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG MID-LEVEL COOLING /IN THE EXIT REGION OF A DIGGING 100+ KT 500 MB JET STREAK/ MAY CONTRIBUTE TO SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION FOR WEAK LOW-TOPPED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...MAINLY IN THE 19-23Z TIME FRAME SATURDAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted April 1, 2016 Share Posted April 1, 2016 Almost looks like warning criteria snow Sunday for mid Michigan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted April 1, 2016 Share Posted April 1, 2016 12z GFS is pretty awful through the 14th-15th. Counted about 4 different shots of snow, including a heavy wet snowfall for next Wednesday around this area on north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 1, 2016 Share Posted April 1, 2016 Look to get fringed here by that system tomorrow. 850's are cold but as is often the case this time of year, the near-sfc layer is torchy. If precip is light then it's probably going to be rain but could be some flakes if a heavier burst can occur. Bigger story looks to be winds as advisory criteria should be reached. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted April 1, 2016 Share Posted April 1, 2016 EURO showing 1-3" NE of a line from Holland to Josh's area. NE OH, 1-2", 1-4" in NW PA. 1-3" in , western NY, southern Ontario including Toronto. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtrackertf Posted April 1, 2016 Share Posted April 1, 2016 I don't want the cold, but I'll take snow whenever I can get it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted April 1, 2016 Share Posted April 1, 2016 The numbers on the MOS are awful. 38-19 for Tuesday? You've gotta be kidding me. In fact Thursday is the only day with a low that'll be above freezing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted April 1, 2016 Share Posted April 1, 2016 Raining with a few sleet pellets here now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted April 1, 2016 Share Posted April 1, 2016 For you guys in the path of the clipper tomorrow, SPC has added a general thunder area. Maybe somebody can score some thundersnow. day2otlk_0600.gif That's about the only potential upside to this crap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
London snowsquall Posted April 1, 2016 Share Posted April 1, 2016 EC in the local fcst is showing an inch tonight, another inch or two tomorrow, and 4-6 tomorrow night with flurries and squalls. Good thing I am bailing and heading to DC to see the sights. Colder than I would prefer there too, but better than this crap in April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted April 1, 2016 Share Posted April 1, 2016 Been getting some pretty good rain and IP downpours in the last hour. 40° currently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IllinoisWedges Posted April 1, 2016 Share Posted April 1, 2016 Got a few showers today. Also, behind one of the showers, I got a double rainbow. Video: (Sorry for moving it a few times) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted April 1, 2016 Share Posted April 1, 2016 4km NAM showing some big boy gusts Sunday night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted April 1, 2016 Share Posted April 1, 2016 4km NAM showing some big boy gusts Sunday night The models are ticking that evil 4 letter s-word closer too especially the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted April 1, 2016 Share Posted April 1, 2016 Tomorrow's clipper looks extremely dynamic and I'm pretty excited for it. For once it's actually going to snow when I'm home for a weekend (in April no less). I'm not sure what the p-type will be along the front down here...surface temps into the 40s ahead of it but cold aloft...if it's rain it there could very well be a good amount of small hail with any convective showers...or if temps crash quickly enough under any shower it could be graupel or snow. And that pressure gradient behind the low is pretty wicked for a few hours tomorrow evening with some lingering lake enhanced snow showers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted April 1, 2016 Share Posted April 1, 2016 Awesome double rainbow Wedges. This is what the GFS is spitting out tomorrow/tomorrow night for snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted April 1, 2016 Share Posted April 1, 2016 Got a few showers today. Also, behind one of the showers, I got a double rainbow. Video: (Sorry for moving it a few times) Noice. Looking like a very windy day tomorrow. Good chance we see gusts over 45mph for a few hrs. Just when I got all the damn sticks picked up around the yard, again, lol. Interesting little band of storms could roll through later Sunday. 4km NAM shows a narrow ribbon of 50+ dews pooling along the advancing cold front. Could be enough to kick off a few low-topped mini sups. Shear profiles actually look pretty nice, but relatively bone-dry boundary layer will result in a real low ceiling of expectations with this. Still gonna keep an eye on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted April 1, 2016 Share Posted April 1, 2016 18z NAM if anyone is interested. 4km NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted April 2, 2016 Share Posted April 2, 2016 Oh, snap I almost forgot about the late Sunday system coming down into MI, ON. We got a few posters in the Thumb don't we? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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