sauss06 Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 2 hours ago, maytownpawx said: I didn't look in the gauge yet but it doesn't appear like we even got that much of anything. This will be one of those weeks when there will be some people talking on Thursday night about how cold it is, and "no way can it warm up that much and rain by Saturday." And then they'll watch their thermometer reach 40 Saturday afternoon. this isn't your first rodeo is it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 Woke up to everything coated in ice this morning and a temp of 32.2 degrees. Got 0.2" of snowfall yesterday morning, followed by a trace again as precip started back up late yesterday evening. For me, here (which doesn't surprise me a bit) the freezing rain held on the longest and was the dominant precip type for nearly all of round 2. I think I got close to 0.4" of total liquid, and I'd say between 0.15" and 0.20" of ice accrural. Event basically ended before temp cleared the freezing mark. Now...on to the arctic front and sub -20C 850's for Thursday into Friday. Last night's GFS had LSV at or even a bit below -20C for almost 24 hours beginning 06Z Thursday. Also, MDT 500 thickness drops to 498 at it's coldest. That's almost unbelievable for mid-December. It's almost impossible to get that down here in the depths of January. Also, watch out for Saturday's event. Might be more on the front end and then some on the back end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 43 minutes ago, sauss06 said: this isn't your first rodeo is it? No it's not. Those comments don't bother me though, I used to think like that too. I remember years ago, and my memory is heading south of what it once was, but we started a day in the single digits below zero and by 6pm that same day it was in the upper 30s and raining. Nothing, nothing will stop warm air if it has a path. Sure we can get incredible CAD around here when a big 'ole high is parked to our northeast, but if that feature is missing I don't care how cold it is...warm air can scour out cold oh so quickly and dash our weenies hopes just as fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 1 hour ago, maytownpawx said: No it's not. Those comments don't bother me though, I used to think like that too. I remember years ago, and my memory is heading south of what it once was, but we started a day in the single digits below zero and by 6pm that same day it was in the upper 30s and raining. Nothing, nothing will stop warm air if it has a path. Sure we can get incredible CAD around here when a big 'ole high is parked to our northeast, but if that feature is missing I don't care how cold it is...warm air can scour out cold oh so quickly and dash our weenies hopes just as fast. This is true...but look at the 12z GFS op and toggle to 0z run and it's gaining latitude. Couple more shifts north and suddenly the placement of the H says hello CAD. In truth this pattern is like meteorological chess. One small player moves and it's a new game.....or game over. Glad Im not selling energy futures. Nut. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 2 hours ago, maytownpawx said: No it's not. Those comments don't bother me though, I used to think like that too. I remember years ago, and my memory is heading south of what it once was, but we started a day in the single digits below zero and by 6pm that same day it was in the upper 30s and raining. Nothing, nothing will stop warm air if it has a path. Sure we can get incredible CAD around here when a big 'ole high is parked to our northeast, but if that feature is missing I don't care how cold it is...warm air can scour out cold oh so quickly and dash our weenies hopes just as fast. 1 hour ago, pasnownut said: This is true...but look at the 12z GFS op and toggle to 0z run and it's gaining latitude. Couple more shifts north and suddenly the placement of the H says hello CAD. In truth this pattern is like meteorological chess. One small player moves and it's a new game.....or game over. Glad Im not selling energy futures. Nut. Its just awesome at this point to be tracking. If anything pans out, i look at that like a bonus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 It's gonna be coooooooold across the Commonwealth Thursday and Friday. MDT might not hit 18 degrees, and winds look fierce. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 whats the skinny for this weekend?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 3 minutes ago, sauss06 said: whats the skinny for this weekend?? It's still up in the air......... Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 2 hours ago, pasnownut said: It's still up in the air......... Nut Funny man.... Looks like we could have some activity. I'll wait for the cool smart guys to fill us in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 2 hours ago, pasnownut said: It's still up in the air......... Nut Don't forget to tip your waitress, folks... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 I'm an idiot but it seems all relative to how quick the moisture moves in, if it's overnight Friday we get a decent thump of snow before it flips to rain. But it seems like the warm air wants to really rush in so we probably skyrocket quickly so it's all rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 14 minutes ago, canderson said: I'm an idiot but it seems all relative to how quick the moisture moves in, if it's overnight Friday we get a decent thump of snow before it flips to rain. But it seems like the warm air wants to really rush in so we probably skyrocket quickly so it's all rain. Due to strength of arctic air and the models inability to accurately model it, I'd hope for something like that Christmas miracle in 2003?? when It cut so far west that we had more of a flatter flow SWFE event that dumped about 10" on cent PA brethren. Some models have hinted at the flatter look and as currently modeled, it would be our best scenario to save this puppy as a front end dump w swizzle n showers after most qpf has fallen and exists stage East. That's just my glass way more than half full....and I'm not sharing what's in it. Something to keep an eye out for anyway. Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted December 13, 2016 Author Share Posted December 13, 2016 In the meantime we have a sneaky wave of snow that will cross the commonwealth this afternoon and evening. Dropping a general 1-3" in the western and central parts of the state above the turnpike roughly. Will have to see how far into the Sus Valley this gets as it seems the focus is the interior central up into the northern tier, but Harrisburg but be north enough to get T-1 out of this. Surface temps are also a bit marginal as well to start this. Currently steady moderate snow here and about 35ºF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted December 13, 2016 Author Share Posted December 13, 2016 34 minutes ago, canderson said: I'm an idiot but it seems all relative to how quick the moisture moves in, if it's overnight Friday we get a decent thump of snow before it flips to rain. But it seems like the warm air wants to really rush in so we probably skyrocket quickly so it's all rain. 11 minutes ago, pasnownut said: Due to strength of arctic air and the models inability to accurately model it, I'd hope for something like that Christmas miracle in 2003?? when It cut so far west that we had more of a flatter flow SWFE event that dumped about 10" on cent PA brethren. Some models have hinted at the flatter look and as currently modeled, it would be our best scenario to save this puppy as a front end dump w swizzle n showers after most qpf has fallen and exists stage East. That's just my glass way more than half full....and I'm not sharing what's in it. Something to keep an eye out for anyway. Nut I've noticed the last day or two that the arctic air blast..while still very impressive for mid-Dec.. has been not quite as cold (still –20ºC or a little colder 850s) but more importantly more progressive in model runs. It's enough of a change that it appears that the LES alignment is a lot more westerly, which takes the potential for far reaching LES showers/squalls away from central PA and more into northwest PA or western NY. The weekend system is also arriving quite a bit faster, with precip already arriving Friday night. Models are relatively solid right now on the overall picture, where it appears we will have a preceding overrunning wave of precipitation that invites the likelihood of a sizable period of snow that transitions into a mix. Once that lifts up we will warm significantly at 850mb as we poke into the warm sector. European gets 850 temps above +10ºC early Sunday for about the southern half of our region, mixing down temps well into the 50s in the Sus valley and western PA before the Laurels. GFS is more muted, still 40s-50s in southwest PA briefly but low-mid 40s at best in the Sus Valley (MD border nears 50), while the interior stays a bit colder than that. There will be a second wave of precip with the frontal passage, which looks quite strong (about a 20-25ºC swing in 850 temps within 12hrs on Sunday). Models have had an anafrontal look to that, which invites some potential for a changeover back to frozen after the frontal passage. Beyond that models have been really changeable in the LR... we should have plenty of cold air on the playing field. But until we at least reverse the -PNA regime we remain in an unfavorable alignment storm wise and will likely continue to see these messy storms that cut from the southeast ridging that stems from the troughing in the west plus a lack of any downstream blocking (NAO). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 Decent size aggregates falling here...looks to be a combination of stellar/plate-like crystals growing aloft and the onset of melting that's leading to the enhanced sticking efficiencies and larger aggregates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anduril Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 Have to say the weekend potential worries me. We're supposed to drive up to the Lock Haven area early Sat. morning and then leave on Sunday (yay birthday parties/early christmas family party) and I dont like the thought of dealing with any mixed precipitation. Granted, snow doesnt really bother me much with the wifes newer car but we've already had two drives back from there that were dicey as hell due to change over to sleet/freezing rain before. Was. Not. Fun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 about 1" - 1.25" new snow so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted December 13, 2016 Author Share Posted December 13, 2016 2 minutes ago, 2001kx said: about 1" - 1.25" new snow so far. I was just wondering how you were doing up there, Clearfield looks like it is right in the middle of the best radar returns. A little over a half inch here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 3 minutes ago, MAG5035 said: I was just wondering how you were doing up there, Clearfield looks like it is right in the middle of the best radar returns. A little over a half inch here. Yeah its snowing pretty good here now...best rates so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skiier04 Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 This incoming band looks interesting if it can hold together... nothing more than wet roads and a fresh coating on cold surfaces here so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 1 hour ago, 2001kx said: about 1" - 1.25" new snow so far. I think this winter you will be a big winner. Really like the NW areas to get frequent snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 18 minutes ago, canderson said: I think this winter you will be a big winner. Really like the NW areas to get frequent snow. I hope so...We are up to 2.5" and still snowing (not as hard though) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 Picked up 2" of snow here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 16 minutes ago, pawatch said: Picked up 2" of snow here. bragger............. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted December 14, 2016 Author Share Posted December 14, 2016 Up to 1.2" here, still coming down pretty steady. Def a wet snow, it's sticking to everything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 Right around 3" now with huge flakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 Just measured 4.5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 Measured about 3" of new snow on the ground. Looks beautiful outside with the wet snow sticking to everything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted December 14, 2016 Author Share Posted December 14, 2016 About 2.3" is the total here. In terms of flake structure this was a pretty high ratio snow event, however the 32-33ºF surface temps over the entire course of the event probably precluded solid advisory amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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