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Thundersnow12

GHD III possible Winter Storm February 1st-3rd

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Quite different from the 0z GFS...still doing the zig zag movement with the sfc low and moving NNE

 

Didn't think it went on a nice smooth track from St. Louis to north of Montreal.  :lol:

It's a big difference from that jog out to south central Iowa.

 

ecmwf_T850_us_7.png

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So very broadly it looks like EURO/GFS vs UKIE/GEM/NOGAPS. :yikes:

I don't buy the Euro's track, it is way to erratic. Moves east then suddenly north northeast only to move east northeast once it gets close to Chicago.

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All i care about is the euro was se of it's 12z run which took the slp to the bridge vs over top my head to the thumb on this run.

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hpc

 

 

 

FINAL UPDATE: THE NEW 0Z ECMWF DID TREND A BIT MORE PHASED AND
NEGATIVELY TILTED WITH THE SHORTWAVE CROSSING INTO THE GREAT LAKES
ON SUNDAY...RESULTING IN A SLIGHTLY STRONGER AND NORTHWEST SURFACE
LOW. THIS WAS A TREND TOWARDS THE GFS...ALTHOUGH THE GFS REMAINS
MUCH DEEPER WITH THE LOW. THE PARALLEL GFS IS WEAKER AND MORE
PROGRESSIVE WITH THE SYSTEM THAN THE DETERMINISTIC RUN...ADDING
SOME CONFIDENCE THAT THE GFS IS LIKELY TOO DEVELOPED AND DEEP WITH
THIS SYSTEM. THINK THE MOST LIKELY SOLUTION AT THIS TIME IS
SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THE 0Z GFS/ECMWF/NAM...CLOSER TO A GFS TRACK
WITH AN INTENSITY CLOSER TO THE ECMWF. THIS SOLUTION SEEMS TO FIT
CURRENT TRENDS AND ENSEMBLE DATA BEST. STILL SLIGHTLY BELOW
AVERAGE CONFIDENCE GIVEN THIS IS A PRETTY BIG MODEL SHIFT FROM
SEVERAL CYCLES AGO...AND THE FACT THAT THE 0Z GEM/UKMET ARE
HOLDING STEADY ON THE SOUTHEAST MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION.

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06z GFS with a solid hit across parts of N IL and Southern Wisco...DVN does quite well as does a decent chunk of the northern 2/3 of michigan

post-556-0-11552200-1454063857_thumb.gif

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06z GFS with a solid hit across parts of N IL and Southern Wisco...DVN does quite well as does a decent chunk of the northern 2/3 of michigan

 

I think we have 2 positive trends right now over the past day or two...first the obvious recent strengthening trend in system 1. It's modestly effective at shoving the baroclinic zone south over the great lakes but by the time the system winds up, it's effect is muted. This will help with front end dump prospects but real change will need to come from the south.

 

the second is the progression/strength of the H5 trough, i was always a little suspicious how fast it was closing off but if compare h5 at 12z monday on the 6z GFS to yesterdays 12z, you see the change. The NAM is a much more extreme version and will probably trend at least some towards the GFS. The end result is the upper levels don't wrap as much over the southern rockies and lee cyclogenesis is driven south. (if h5 trends improve)

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Truly fascinating how this is all playing out. That Sunday wave sliding in from the west may end up being the bigger story here. Although the 06z GFS wasn't as strong as the 0z run, it still produces about 4-5" for MSP. It will be interesting once the NAM gets into range. So many moving parts.

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Truly fascinating how this is all playing out. That Sunday wave sliding in from the west may end up being the bigger story here. Although the 06z GFS wasn't as strong as the 0z run, it still produces about 4-5" for MSP. It will be interesting once the NAM gets into range. So many moving parts.

 

 

NAM and the GFS are currently really far apart by the end of the run, for obvious reasons i'm hoping the globals trend towards the NAM but it's all on it's own right now and well outside its best range.

 

GFS

gfs_T850_us_15.png

 

NAM

nam_T850_us_29.png

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Truly fascinating how this is all playing out. That Sunday wave sliding in from the west may end up being the bigger story here. Although the 06z GFS wasn't as strong as the 0z run, it still produces about 4-5" for MSP. It will be interesting once the NAM gets into range. So many moving parts.

 

Out of curiosity, how often does MSP get big dog snowstorms? Maybe my memory has been a bit fuzzy, but I feel like it's been quite a while since MSP got ploughed.

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Out of curiosity, how often does MSP get big dog snowstorms? Maybe my memory has been a bit fuzzy, but I feel like it's been quite a while since MSP got ploughed.

MSP doesn't get many big dogs. The last one was Dec 2010 when the Cities got 17". That was 5th biggest all-time.

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