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Ericjcrash

Continued Winter Banter.

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Fire in Hillsborough looks like very heavy snow.

attachicon.gifimage1.PNG

i wonder how much of that smoke is being snowed back down into the ocean

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I think March has powder keg potential. ..now million dollar question will it go BOOM. .time will tell ..

What makes you think that? Anything to support that?

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What makes you think that? Anything to support that?

I tend to agree. There is an incredible amount if atmospheric energy. I think we see a once every 25 year or more coastal storm. Does it mean it's snow at the coast... No. But a severe coastal flood and high wind event. If all plays out well we could see our second blizzard.

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Beautiful..Hopefully, we can squeeze another normal to above normal snowfall winter out of this

pattern. NYC is currently at 12 out of the last 16 winters with near to above normal seasonal

snowfall. Would be great if we could extend the streak to 13 out of 17 next winter.

The only 4 duds since 2000 were 01-02, 06-07, 07-08, and 11-12.

 

https://alaskapacificblob.wordpress.com/2016/02/09/subsurface-warmth-persists/

 

Looking at the 100-200m layer, it’s remarkable to see that the region of warm water in the northeast Pacific actually increasedslightly in size and intensity from October to January.  The anomaly is slightly east of the NPM center-of-action of 45°N/150°W, but nevertheless it’s clear that “the Blob” lives on under the surface.

 

The two images below show vertical cross-sections of temperature anomaly from 0-400m depth along 45°N for October and January.  It’s rather fascinating to see how shallow the warm layer of water was in October across the north-central North Pacific (south of the Aleutians), but the warm anomaly in the northeast Pacific is very much deeper.  Consequently the shallow warm anomaly was easily wiped out by surface cooling and mixing during the early winter, but the deep eastern anomaly remains largely intact.  In conclusion, although the positive NPM phase is gone for now, the major thermal anomaly associated with “the Blob” is still very much in play.

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Winter is far from over after the warm up starting next week - the same pattern that delivered arctic cold last month and this month will set up again in later Feb

 

gfs_z500a_sd_namer_46.png

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So I purchased storm vista platinum package cause I was tired of waiting 2 hours for wxbell to load frames.. Can someone with SV please explain why certain frame types like snow total isn't offered on all models.. For example the CMC doesn't have a snow total option

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Can we please refrain from telling posters what to analyze and name calling? The immaturity is very annoying to see on a science-based bord. This isn't elementary school.

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lol, the NYC Metro forum, the only forum where half of a thread is about fights over whether or not someone gets 2 inches or 3. Why are we the only forum to constantly be in fight mode? The MidAtl forum barely gets anything on average and they seem to be pretty calm with each other...

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Remember how all the models showed the blizzard being nothing more than a few inches... Was I on here trolling all the city folks, even as every model EXCEPT the nam showed a crap storm?, no I continued to be confident In a snowy solution for you guys, and support you, even tho I wasn't getting a single flake lol I think it's a little poor taste that following this storm closely which has the potential to be my snowiest/icy storm of the year if it comes east has yielded so much pissy posts towards me and trolls posts for a-holes that are def gonna rain.. Poor taste

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Remember how all the models showed the blizzard being nothing more than a few inches... Was I on here trolling all the city folks, even as every model EXCEPT the nam showed a crap storm?, no I continued to be confident In a snowy solution for you guys, and support you, even tho I wasn't getting a single flake lol I think it's a little poor taste that following this storm closely which has the potential to be my snowiest/icy storm of the year if it comes east has yielded so much pissy posts towards me and trolls posts for a-holes that are def gonna rain.. Poor taste

We get you're frustrated but I don't think anyone's trolling you. I think most would like to see the interior cash in, especially if its a rain event for the city either way

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We get you're frustrated but I don't think anyone's trolling you. I think most would like to see the interior cash in, especially if its a rain event for the city either way

The posts were deleted already, trust me it's trolling lol

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Remember how all the models showed the blizzard being nothing more than a few inches... Was I on here trolling all the city folks, even as every model EXCEPT the nam showed a crap storm?, no I continued to be confident In a snowy solution for you guys, and support you, even tho I wasn't getting a single flake lol I think it's a little poor taste that following this storm closely which has the potential to be my snowiest/icy storm of the year if it comes east has yielded so much pissy posts towards me and trolls posts for a-holes that are def gonna rain.. Poor taste

Hey man I for one would not mind you guys getting dumped on while we snow to rain. It's been a long time for you guys.

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Remember how all the models showed the blizzard being nothing more than a few inches... Was I on here trolling all the city folks, even as every model EXCEPT the nam showed a crap storm?, no I continued to be confident In a snowy solution for you guys, and support you, even tho I wasn't getting a single flake lol I think it's a little poor taste that following this storm closely which has the potential to be my snowiest/icy storm of the year if it comes east has yielded so much pissy posts towards me and trolls posts for a-holes that are def gonna rain.. Poor taste

What you don't seem to understand is that's called wishcasting and not scientific reasoning. Show me something in the pattern that supports the system tracking further East and I'll shut up. 

 

Statements such as, "well other storms shifted East" or "Remember what happened with the blizzard" are completely irrelevant. 

 

You have a kicker moving through the lakes and you still can't get it done. That should tell you something. If not for that pig ridge, the system would probably end up well OTS and we would be praying for a phase.

 

gfs_z500_vort_eus_19.png

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lol, the NYC Metro forum, the only forum where half of a thread is about fights over whether or not someone gets 2 inches or 3. Why are we the only forum to constantly be in fight mode? The MidAtl forum barely gets anything on average and they seem to be pretty calm with each other...

They accept reality that they don't get much in the way of snow.. in my opinion from viewing for many years, people tend to talk about there own areas a while lot, leading to confusing and then fights...if it doesn't show snow in there yard they post it's worse,winter over,etc...

Needs to be more towards the general area and yes, talking about some areas doing better then others is great for discussions!

But, you can't change people who post like that sadly..but the name calling, storm bashing etc is something that can be controlled...

My motto, don't live and die with every model run etc. Don't give up until the storms started, just enjoy the storm till its over look for the next big threat!. and...anything can and will happen..

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someone from ulster county is starting to get desperate

I would too if I was in his situation. We got the blizzard so we're fine but alot of the hudson valley in the single digits with regards to snow.

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I would too if I was in his situation. We got the blizzard so we're fine but alot of the hudson valley in the single digits with regards to snow.

Sadly, seems to be a new thing over past several years, we see more then them... dunno why

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Sadly, seems to be a new thing over past several years, we see more then them... dunno why

That's part of the reason why I don't think this will end up as a snow interior, rain coast outcome. He can't buy a good snowstorm up there. Either he starts as snow and flips to rain or he's all rain like most of the rest of us.

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