Carvers Gap Posted January 20, 2016 Author Share Posted January 20, 2016 Seems like the RGEM did well with todays system. Hope it's onto something for this one The EPS nailed it. Euro op as well! Good signs for the weekend. Mark Reynolds for WJHL up here just used these words...heavy snow, 1-2' possibility, all snow for NE TN w/ only mild warming mid-day, 15-17" some models, more than a foot. He is pretty conservative and said so. Their in-house model looked good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 18z GEFS mean snow: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lugnuts Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Almost all models show southeast KY looking very good. If you don't do well, nobody else is south of you. Prime real estate. Seem's like most weathermen in our area is going with 8-16..Big spread but i guess it's impossible to nail exact amount's..Plus i think some are still concerned with mixing issues..Anyway's was hoping for a good paste job..Been a long, long time since I've heard the sound of tree's splitting in total darkness with flashes of blue..Very close to that Blue dot of the map Stove posted above..Yippiee Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vol Man Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 I saw Todd Howell's model on WBIR...I think it is the RPM, but not sure...I believe it indicated 16+ for TRI area..... Just last night, Mark Reynolds wasn't thinking anything like what he discussed tonight....huge shift in his description....still lots to work out, obviously.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Here is a look at the various possibilities that are on the table according to the 18z GEFS: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayCee Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Thanks for posting those, Stove Good info Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dustincollins Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Hey, I have lurked in here from Time-to-time the last couple days. I live in the Louisville, KY suburbs but you all seem to be keeping active on this storm while our sub-forum has gotten dark. Anyways, our local meteorologists mentioned a possibility and I'm wondering you alls thoughts as it would surely impact you. If the snow from today melts in Middle TN wouldn't that shift the storm north? Our meteorologist noted the historical tendency of storms such as this to take a track just south of the snow pack. What are your thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Runman292 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 When does the EPS come out at night? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Hey, I have lurked in here from Time-to-time the last couple days. I live in the Louisville, KY suburbs but you all seem to be keeping active on this storm while our sub-forum has gotten dark. Anyways, our local meteorologists mentioned a possibility and I'm wondering you alls thoughts as it would surely impact you. If the snow from today melts in Middle TN wouldn't that shift the storm north? Our meteorologist noted the historical tendency of storms such as this to take a track just south of the snow pack. What are your thoughts? Not sure how that's possible,but welcome to the board Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dustincollins Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Not sure how that's possible,but welcome to the board Honestly, I'm not sure either but he seemed pretty sure of it and the storm tracking back north. Our NWS also seems to be relying on that idea. They have gone up with expected totals while noting all the models are going the other way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 When does the EPS come out at night? eps comes out a couple hrs after the euro op Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 When does the EPS come out at night? The 0z Euro will start rolling in just before 1am eastern. I think the EPS comes out a couple hours after that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
maharg18 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Coming out of lurk mode, I saw this post from WxSouth earlier which could be of interest to the southern areas... https://www.facebook.com/WxSouth/photos/a.358160627547332.99358.356106867752708/1206875232675863/?type=3&theater Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Honestly, I'm not sure either but he seemed pretty sure of it and the storm tracking back north. Our NWS also seems to be relying on that idea. They have gone up with expected totals while noting all the models are going the other way. Never heard of that.It might help your 2m's,but it wouldn't have an effect on a storms track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zippity Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Coming out of lurk mode, I saw this post from WxSouth earlier which could be of interest to the southern areas... https://www.facebook.com/WxSouth/photos/a.358160627547332.99358.356106867752708/1206875232675863/?type=3&theater Thanks! I saw that, but don't want to get my hopes up just yet. Local mets are saying 1'-2' inches, so I don't know what to think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Coming out of lurk mode, I saw this post from WxSouth earlier which could be of interest to the southern areas... https://www.facebook.com/WxSouth/photos/a.358160627547332.99358.356106867752708/1206875232675863/?type=3&theater Thanks for sharing that. Robert is particularly awesome in this time frame and has been known to hone in on details like this that many others miss. It's definitely something to keep an eye on. Here's the post to save a click: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reb Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 via RaleighWx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dustincollins Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Only a few frames in but NAM looks like it is coming in North like the RPM/SREF did EDIT: it had an early jump seems to be leveling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Only a few frames in but NAM looks like it is coming in North like the RPM/SREF did I've only got out to hour 27, but at 27 the low is in South central MS around Jackson on the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dustincollins Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 I've only got out to hour 27, but at 27 the low is in South central MS around Jackson on the NAM. At 33 it is about 30 miles south of the TN/AL/MS border Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Runman292 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Only a few frames in but NAM looks like it is coming in North like the RPM/SREF did EDIT: it had an early jump seems to be leveling I'm going to guess that is not a good thing for East Tennessee. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Movement on the NAM seems odd... 33 to 36 its essentially stationary though that could be around the point where it begins to transfer energy to the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dustincollins Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Movement on the NAM seems odd... 33 to 36 its essentially stationary though that could be around the point where it begins to transfer energy to the coast. While this is a better run for my area I was thinking the same thing on the movement. It is waffling a ton frame to frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 I didn't expect to see signs of energy transfer to the coast that soon. By 39 its very evidently transferring energy toward the Atlantic. Very slow moving stationary for a bit even. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 By 48 its on the mouth of the Savannah River after transfer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChattChaser Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 I don't post here much but I do lurk quite a bit. Just wanted to say I really appreciate all the info from everyone. There is quite a bit more focus on east TN here which is definitely not the case for one of the other boards Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 I am riding the Euro/EPS/RGEM/GEFS until those fall off the boat and move north too..lol Silly NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 21, 2016 Author Share Posted January 21, 2016 The 0z NAM is now in range. The solution for the TN Valley is almost unrecognizeable to other runs. Might be the new data. Not sure. But if that is the trend...outside of the nw corner...TN gets very little. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 ...CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH TN/SOUTHERN OH VALLEYS INTO MID-ATLSTATES AND SOUTHEAST... A MOIST AND DYNAMIC SPLIT FLOW SYSTEM OVER THE NRN INTER-MOUNTAINWEST WILL REACH THE CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSMORNING. THE LEADING EDGE OF DIGGING UPPER DYNAMICS REACHING THEPLAINS WILL BEGIN TO SHOW SIGNS OF FORMING A MID TO UPPER CLOSEDLOW OVER KS/NE...ACCOMPANIED BY A BURST OF SNOW WHICH DEVELOPSALONG AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH FOR LOCALLY HEAVY ACCUMULATIONSFROM ERN/CENTRAL KS INTO CENTRAL NE. ON THURSDAY...DIFFERENT STREAMS OF FLOW ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO SHOWSIGNS OF PHASING OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND LEAD TO A DEVELOPINGHIGH SOCIETAL IMPACT WINTER STORM. THE MID TO UPPER LOW ANDVORTICITY WILL DIG SOUTH AND EAST TOWARD AR/NRN MS TO ESTABLISH ANAMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY/CENTRAL GULF COASTSTATES. THIS AMPLIFICATION WILL ALLOW ABUNDANT GULF OF MEXICO ANDSUBTROPICAL MOISTURE TO SPREAD NORTHWARD... BEGIN INTERACTING WITHA DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND OVERRUN INTO MODIFIED ARCTICAIR MASS. THE RESULTANT WILL BE A WIDESPREAD AREA OF HEAVY SNOWAND LENGTHY TRANSITION ZONE ALONG A VERY SIMILAR AXIS FROM AR INTOKY AND THE APPALACHIAN SPINE WHILE SPILLING OVER EAST OF THE MTNSINTO SWRN VA/WEST CENTRAL NC.ON FRIDAY... A FULL FLEDGED MAJOR WINTER STORM WILL SHIFTDOWNSTREAM WITH THE CLOSED MID TO UPPER CIRCULATIONS TRACKING INTOTHE SOUTHEAST... WHILE AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW TRACKING THROUGHMS/AL WILL WEAKEN AND A NEW COASTAL LOW WILL FORM NEAR THECAROLINAS COAST. THE MAIN DIFFERENCES WITH THE GUIDANCE STILLREVOLVE PRIMARILY WITH TIMING THE AMOUNT OF NORTHWARD PROPAGATIONOF THE PRECIP SHIELD AND MOISTURE. BREAKING ITS STRIDE...THE 12ZRUN OF THE GFS SPED UP AND IT BECAME A FAST/EASTERN OUTLIER. THE20/00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE AND THE 20/06Z GEFS HAD THE BEST AGREEMENTIN TERMS OF POSITION AND AMOUNT...AND WAS THE WPC QPF PREFERREDAPPROACH. USING THIS RESULTED IN FAIRLY CONSISTENT AMOUNTS FROMTHE PREVIOUS SHIFT WHILE ACCOUNTING FOR A GRADUAL SOUTHWARD SHIFT. BANN http://origin.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=qpfhsd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greyhound Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Saw this on Twitter. Might explain NAM's track: WXSOUTH @WxSouth NAM has issue when mid level circ hits base of Apps and Miller B in general. Euro implies 7h, 5h and 850 lows will roll thru n. GA. into SC Sent from my XT1055 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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