Damage In Tolland Posted January 24, 2016 Author Share Posted January 24, 2016 Still need to watch that storm. It won't take much to bring us closer.As is it gets snow to far ENE. Big spread on EPS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
512high Posted January 24, 2016 Share Posted January 24, 2016 Still need to watch that storm. It won't take much to bring us closer Will continue to monitor your discussions....ty Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 24, 2016 Share Posted January 24, 2016 Starting to like 29th more. Miller B? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 24, 2016 Share Posted January 24, 2016 Starting to like 29th more. Miller B? I just posted in model thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 24, 2016 Share Posted January 24, 2016 I just posted in model thread.good stuff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 Pattern for February is shaping up pretty nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 So far. We are only half way through. Ray, Today is the 56th day of MET winter so we are well beyond the halfway point of the 91 days of Met winter this winter. Yes we still have February to go. And March at times can be a very wintry month, but we are going to need February and March to be at near historical levels to salvage anything from this winter. The next 7-10 days do not look promising for a cold and snowy pattern so it's quite possible that we are in early February with a winter that has delivered well below normal snowfall and well above average temperatures to the vast majority of New England. As I mentioned, I wrote off this winter months ago due to the strength of the El Nino. At best I was hoping for 1/2 of normal snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 Ray, Today is the 56th day of MET winter so we are well beyond the halfway point of the 91 days of Met winter this winter. Yes we still have February to go. And March at times can be a very wintry month, but we are going to need February and March to be at near historical levels to salvage anything from this winter. The next 7-10 days do not look promising for a cold and snowy pattern so it's quite possible that we are in early February with a winter that has delivered well below normal snowfall and well above average temperatures to the vast majority of New England. As I mentioned, I wrote off this winter months ago due to the strength of the El Nino. At best I was hoping for 1/2 of normal snowfall. What is your normal? Taking Boston at the coast for an example, 20 inches. In Feb and 15 in March, both god but not historic totals would bring the entire season aoa normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 What is your normal? Taking Boston at the coast for an example, 20 inches. In Feb and 15 in March, both god but not historic totals would bring the entire season aoa norma 10 inches of snow/sleet to date, so my area would need to receive another 50-55 inches of snow to approach normal. I'd be thrilled if that happened but I do not think it will. Total since last March 1st. 15.75, to say the least a snow drought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 10 inches of snow/sleet to date, so my area would need to receive another 50-55 inches of snow to approach normal. I'd be thrilled if that happened but I do not think it will. Total since last March 1st. 15.75, to say the least a snow drought. What is your normal average to date I think is what Jerry asked Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 What is your normal average to date I think is what Jerry askedMore importantly how many standard deviations is it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 More importantly how many standard deviations is i What is your normal average to date I think is what Jerry asked I do not track the average by day so I do not have my average snowfall through today's date. I'm assuming the snowfall is 18- 24 inches below normal for this time of year. Perhaps even greater than that. Here's what I do know, it's going to take quite the turn around to even approach normal snowfall for this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 Ray, Today is the 56th day of MET winter so we are well beyond the halfway point of the 91 days of Met winter this winter. Yes we still have February to go. And March at times can be a very wintry month, but we are going to need February and March to be at near historical levels to salvage anything from this winter. The next 7-10 days do not look promising for a cold and snowy pattern so it's quite possible that we are in early February with a winter that has delivered well below normal snowfall and well above average temperatures to the vast majority of New England. As I mentioned, I wrote off this winter months ago due to the strength of the El Nino. At best I was hoping for 1/2 of normal snowfall. No we don't need historic months. 25" per month from here on out is what I need to be near normal....assuming I get nothing between now and the start of February. Get a grip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 No we don't need historic months. 25" per month from here on out is what I need to be near normal....assuming I get nothing between now and the start of February. Get a grip. Need at least 45" in both February and in March, and say 10" in April to get to 125" average snowfall here at the house.Going to be a tall order. Mountain top needs about 100" per month to get close. Let's hope it gets stormy and real fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 No we don't need historic months. 25" per month from here on out is what I need to be near normal....assuming I get nothing between now and the start of February. Get a grip. No Ray, it is you who needs to get a grip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 Need at least 45" in both February and in March, and say 10" in April to get to 125" average snowfall here at the house. Going to be a tall order. Mountain top needs about 100" per month to get close. Let's hope it gets stormy and real fast. Need at least 45" in both February and in March, and say 10" in April to get to 125" average snowfall here at the house. Going to be a tall order. Mountain top needs about 100" per month to get close. Let's hope it gets stormy and real fast. Should be no problem getting the 100 inches in the next 2 plus months..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 It will be a lot easier for SNE to make up ground on average than NNE. Still not an easy task though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 It will be a lot easier for SNE to make up ground on average than NNE. Still not an easy task though. Yeah these winters that punt the first half make it very difficult to make it all up fully in the higher average zones. 2006-2007 did it but everything broke perfectly...no bad luck at all.Like the Mansfield Coop averaging 1.5-2.0" per day through most of the winter months means you have to do at least one month of almost a 4"/day average to make up for this December alone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 No Ray, it is you who needs to get a grip. Great counter logic. I understand your concern, but the assertion that sne needs a "historic" two months to achieve an average winter is patently wrong. Sorry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 It will be a lot easier for SNE to make up ground on average than NNE. Still not an easy task though. Obviously its more difficult for nne....Great Snow has a valid point as it relates to them....however I am speaking of sne, where I live. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 Yeah these winters that punt the first half make it very difficult to make it all up fully in the higher average zones. 2006-2007 did it but everything broke perfectly...no bad luck at all. Like the Mansfield Coop averaging 1.5-2.0" per day through most of the winter months means you have to do at least one month of almost a 4"/day average to make up for this December alone. Yeah looking at ORH data...in order to reach climo, they'll probably need something like 55" or slightly more (depending on if there's light accums this weekend) from Feb 1st onward. That is not historic, but it's not easy. They've gotten that much (or more) 15 times in their period of record, so that puts the odds at around 13% just going purely from historical frequency. You could maybe be generous and bump the odds slightly given that it is an El Nino and the pattern progged for the first half of February does look pretty favorable. You would lower them if all the ensembles were showing a torch. But I couldn't say the odds are north of 20%. For BOS, the odds are definitely a bit better. They only need about 32-33 more inches to reach climo. They've managed that 21 times in their period of record from Feb 1st onward. So BOS probably has about 5-10% better odds than ORH to make up their deficit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 Some Locales in the mid atl just received 35-40" in about 36 hours....I don't think it would take a miracle for locales several degrees higher in latitude to accumulate comparable amounts over the span of 2+ months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 Great counter logic. I understand your concern, but the assertion that sne needs a "historic" two months to achieve an average winter is patently wrong. Sorry. Great counter logic. I understand your concern, but the assertion that sne needs a "historic" two months to achieve an average winter is patently wrong. Sorry. Thank you!.......I think it's excellent logic on my part and for you to confirm my thinking has made my day. Great counter logic. I understand your concern, but the assertion that sne needs a "historic" two months to achieve an average winter is patently wrong. Sorry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 I'm really not trying to be difficult and I wasn't being sarcastic. Have a good one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 Obviously its more difficult for nne....Great Snow has a valid point as it relates to them....however I am speaking of sne, where I live. Yeah the assumption is unless otherwise stated that the given poster be talking about their local area... Like for you I think of eastern Mass. For me it's NW NNE. I do think even in SNE, it's going to be an uphill battle for western half areas that missed the inverted trough snows last week, or this coastal system, both of which helped E.SNE. They have higher climo normals and are very low snowfall so far. Like MPM, Hippy, even up towards Hubb Dave. Given the recent confirmation bias of past few years, I feel like the chances are better in eastern areas anyway to make up ground on climo snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 Yeah the assumption is unless otherwise stated that the given poster be talking about their local area... Like for you I think of eastern Mass. For me it's NW NNE. I do think even in SNE, it's going to be an uphill battle for western half areas that missed the inverted trough snows last week, or this coastal system, both of which helped E.SNE. They have higher climo normals and are very low snowfall so far. Like MPM, Hippy, even up towards Hubb Dave. Given the recent confirmation bias of past few years, I feel like the chances are better in eastern areas anyway to make up ground on climo snowfall. Western areas have 2 months to make up ground, things can flip on a dime. Recent confirmation bias means nothing. what will happen will happen but there is zero scientific reason to assume everything remains static. Emotional reasoning will not effect what will happen the next two months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 Some Locales in the mid atl just received 35-40" in about 36 hours....I don't think it would take a miracle for locales several degrees higher in latitude to accumulate comparable amounts over the span of 2+ months. This I agree with, but we are still going to need to see a marked increase in events. The whole maybe one threat per 7-10 days thing needs to ramp up a bit. Hopefully we get into at least a few week period where there are multiple snow threats per week. Like overrunning followed by a clipper followed by a southern stream wave, etc every few days. Otherwise just hope to hit the lottery and grab a couple 12-18" events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 Western areas have 2 months to make up ground, things can flip on a dime. Recent confirmation bias means nothing. what will happen will happen but there is zero scientific reason to assume everything remains static. Emotional reasoning will not effect what will happen the next two months. Yes they do have two months. Did you miss the stats Will gave? It can flip on a dime but we are looking at a place like ORH having a 15% shot at normal snow. BOS is a little higher. The probabilities decrease right now with increasing annual average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 Yes they do have two months. Did you miss the stats Will gave? It can flip on a dime but we are looking at a place like ORH having a 15% shot at normal snow. BOS is a little higher. The probabilities decrease right now with increasing annual average I have a hard time relating probabilities to any given LR situations when Ma nature is involved, you know what the probability of BWI getting a 30 inch snow storm was going into this winter?. Point being stats are great post mortem. Predictability? I don't know if they are any use for individual years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 I have a hard time relating probabilities to any given LR situations when Ma nature is involved, you know what the probability of BWI getting a 30 inch snow storm was going into this winter?. Point being stats are great post mortem. Predictability? I don't know if they are any use for individual years. Bluewave I think came up with a new prediction tool, when you set an all time record December temp then double the anomaly to get to your snowfall the next month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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