OceanStWx Posted January 26, 2016 Share Posted January 26, 2016 I read it that Steve is arguing for snow. He is, but he's saying if it happens it'll happen and there is no skill in predicting it at long ranges. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 26, 2016 Share Posted January 26, 2016 Ginx, quick question. How do you go about issuing your LR weekly forecasts that you post? do you use probabilities or is it more like a farmers almanac type deal?probably Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 26, 2016 Author Share Posted January 26, 2016 Just generating anger Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 26, 2016 Share Posted January 26, 2016 He is, but he's saying if it happens it'll happen and there is no skill in predicting it at long ranges.Yes, when he was presented with an argument that we are unlikely to reach climo snowfall for the season.Yet as runnaway points out, he does his own two month forecasts every winter where he specifically forecasts when he thinks a snowstorm will occur. So it's a silly debate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 26, 2016 Share Posted January 26, 2016 Yes, when he was presented with an argument that we are unlikely to reach climo snowfall for the season. Yet as runnaway points out, he does his own two month forecasts every winter where he specifically forecasts when he thinks a snowstorm will occur. So it's a silly debate. what's does that have to do with statistics Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 26, 2016 Share Posted January 26, 2016 what's does that have to do with statisticsHow do you do it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 26, 2016 Share Posted January 26, 2016 I read it that Steve is arguing for snow.no arguments just saying I don't think probabilities are predictive. I never discussed for against,total strawman. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 26, 2016 Share Posted January 26, 2016 How do you do it?it's for fun. I think I have had pretty good luck having fun. Definitely not probalistic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 26, 2016 Share Posted January 26, 2016 It's a serious question, no stir up here. Ginx was discussing his points before which I was understanding his side, don't agree with it but I can see what he's trying to discuss. Then I remembered his LR weekly forecasts and thought how does one arrive at that....thats all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 26, 2016 Share Posted January 26, 2016 It's a serious question, no stir up here. Ginx was discussing his points before which I was understanding his side, don't agree with it but I can see what he's trying to discuss. Then I remembered his LR weekly forecasts and thought how does one arrive at that....thats all.it's a complex mix which I keep to myself. I don't wish peer review or debunking. Sometimes I get it right, sometimes not so much. I lay it out.I have been around these parts for over a decade yet have never seen many who have argued about the value of probabilistic forecasting ever lay out a detailed LR forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 26, 2016 Share Posted January 26, 2016 it's for fun. I think I have had pretty good luck having fun. Definitely not probalisticDo you factor in anything like moons, solar activity, volcanic eruptions, etc?Edit: saw your post, you don't want to give it away. Gotchya. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 26, 2016 Share Posted January 26, 2016 Do you factor in anything like moons, solar activity, volcanic eruptions, etc?volcanic eruptions on an 8 week scale? Now you are getting silly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 26, 2016 Share Posted January 26, 2016 Steve hates stats/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 26, 2016 Share Posted January 26, 2016 Steve hates stats/ Strong statement Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 26, 2016 Share Posted January 26, 2016 Steve hates stats/about as wrong as possible. I love stats, post mortem. Have fun at the casino. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 26, 2016 Share Posted January 26, 2016 Strong statement85% of my links are stats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 26, 2016 Share Posted January 26, 2016 85% of my links are stats. It was the "hate" part that i questioned Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 26, 2016 Share Posted January 26, 2016 volcanic eruptions on an 8 week scale? Now you are getting silly. Dood I'm not joking around. I don't know crap beyond d7 model printing out qpf. I post to have fun, learn, and interact with fellow weather nerds. I read your 8 week forecasts and I like them. I think one would have to factor in probabilities to come to such conclusions but if you don't then just wondering what factors come in play. Ok if you don't want to share, I get it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 26, 2016 Share Posted January 26, 2016 It was the "hate" part that i questionedMeh enough about me. I move on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 26, 2016 Share Posted January 26, 2016 about as wrong as possible. I love stats, post mortem. Have fun at the casino. Then why are you refutting what people are trying to tell you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 26, 2016 Share Posted January 26, 2016 Dood I'm not joking around. I don't know crap beyond d7 model printing out qpf. I post to have fun, learn, and interact with fellow weather nerds. I read your 8 week forecasts and I like them. I think one would have to factor in probabilities to come to such conclusions but if you don't then just wondering what factors come in play. Ok if you don't want to share, I get it. I just laughed at the Volcanic stuff. Basically I take a year's worth of stats,which I hate, and make probability charts, lol just kidding. It's more about where we have been. I will share that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 26, 2016 Share Posted January 26, 2016 How anyone could forecast eight weeks in advance without using probabilities is beyond me. I think it has to be in there even if it's not obvious on the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 26, 2016 Author Share Posted January 26, 2016 I read an 8 week forecast that is calling for the first 7 days of Feb to be stormiest of the winter eith Arctic chill Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 26, 2016 Share Posted January 26, 2016 I just laughed at the Volcanic stuff. Basically I take a year's worth of stats,which I hate, and make probability charts, lol just kidding. It's more about where we have been. I will share that.Oh. See I don't know the science behind all this but I do know the atmosphere is complex and yet, delicate at the same time. One thing here can lead to a chain reaction there, If that makes sense. Which is why I brought up volcanic eruptions. But I'll just stick to watching the latest d7 guidance loop of h5 and how that results in qpf printout, and leave the science talk to the big boys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 26, 2016 Share Posted January 26, 2016 Then why are you refutting what people are trying to tell you?I have an opinion, they are like bung holes everyone has one. Not convinced anyone can predict with 85% accuracy that says Boston will end up below climo. If they do,lay it out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 26, 2016 Share Posted January 26, 2016 it's a complex mix which I keep to myself. I don't wish peer review or debunking. Sometimes I get it right, sometimes not so much. I lay it out.I have been around these parts for over a decade yet have never seen many who have argued about the value of probabilistic forecasting ever lay out a detailed LR forecast. My world is focused on the first 7 days, so that's where I spend most my time. Even if I don't have something more pressing in the first 7 days, I don't worry too much beyond that because eventually a 15 day prog will become a day 7 prog. Plus there are plenty of others around here who are much more well versed in long range patterns than I. I do think you're also tipping your hand as to why some don't post long range forecasts much here. People want details, and long range forecasting doesn't lend itself to detailed forecasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 26, 2016 Share Posted January 26, 2016 I read an 8 week forecast that is calling for the first 7 days of Feb to be coldest of the winteroh it's the angry Monday morning QB chiming in. How's that total whiff 36 hrs prior making out. That was made 4 weeks ago for fun,you were very very angry Thursday when it appeared to you,you would get shutout. Hope everything is OK with you, I worry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 26, 2016 Share Posted January 26, 2016 My world is focused on the first 7 days, so that's where I spend most my time. Even if I don't have something more pressing in the first 7 days, I don't worry too much beyond that because eventually a 15 day prog will become a day 7 prog. Plus there are plenty of others around here who are much more well versed in long range patterns than I. I do think you're also tipping your hand as to why some don't post long range forecasts much here. People want details, and long range forecasting doesn't lend itself to detailed forecasts. Ray did and he has balls with these Monday Am qbs lurking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 26, 2016 Share Posted January 26, 2016 I have an opinion, they are like bung holes everyone has one. Not convinced anyone can predict with 85% accuracy that says Boston will end up below climo. If they do,lay it outaWhere did 85 come from? If it were 85, it's because of previous years with similar setups. See I think that you think we take them verbatim. I see that and say that it's an uphill battle. Nobody is referring that specific number. What's the problem? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 26, 2016 Share Posted January 26, 2016 Ray did and he has balls with these Monday Am qbs lurking I hope you don't view me as one. Not my intention here at all. There's a time to poke and have fun there's also a time to discuss and learn...I'm of the latter at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.