MattPetrulli Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 They'll either go Enhanced at 06z and then go Moderate at 1730z or just jump to Moderate risk at 06z. Maybe a high risk in Day 1 outlook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 Any ideas on what the SPC is thinking for tomorrow's Day 2 outlook? Will we see an upgrade to enhanced or moderate for MS, AR, TN? Sent from my XT1563 I could see a 30 hatched area in the morning and upgraded to a mdt in the afternoon once the modeling gets a bit better closer in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PGM Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 I could see a 30 hatched area in the morning and upgraded to a mdt in the afternoon once the modeling gets a bit better closer in.Alright, thanks everyone for your thoughts. I don't like to criticize but I'm not sure why they didn't just go enhanced on the Day 3. Things were looking pretty intense at this time last night. Stay safe all.Sent from my XT1563 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 James Spann is already talking moderate for the nw half of AL in his video update. I say we have a slight risk posted then up to the Ohio Valley with marginal to the north in the upcoming outlook for Wed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 Alright, thanks everyone for your thoughts. I don't like to criticize but I'm not sure why they didn't just go enhanced on the Day 3. Things were looking pretty intense at this time last night. Stay safe all. Sent from my XT1563 It should have been a 30%, i didn't buy the reasoning given, not to bash SPC but that wasn't a good outlook nor was the day 4 the day before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rolltide_130 Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 It should have been a 30%, i didn't buy the reasoning given, not to bash SPC but that wasn't a good outlook nor was the day 4 the day before. I've got a feeling the way a lot of the setups this year have gone has left them much more hesitant to pull the trigger several days out, and understandably so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted December 22, 2015 Author Share Posted December 22, 2015 I would honestly feel a Slight Risk up to I-80 would be reasonable, with expansion if the models hold/get stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 I would honestly feel a Slight Risk up to I-80 would be reasonable, with expansion if the models hold/get stronger. Stop. Unless you're going to provide evidence on why, just read more and post less please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 James Spann is already talking moderate for the nw half of AL in his video update. I say we have a slight risk posted then up to the Ohio Valley with marginal to the north in the upcoming outlook for Wed. Yeah, and read BMX's AFD. Some nasty wording in there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 DISCUSSION...THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TUESDAY WAS REMOVED FROM THEFORECAST. CONVECTION NEAR THE GULF COAST SHOULD LIMIT INSTABILITYACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.THERE IS GROWING CONCERN REGARDING THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIALFOR WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE POTENTIAL FOR DISRUPTIVECOASTAL CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DECREASE AS WE APPROACH THE EVENT.IN FACT...THERE IS LITTLE TO NO CONVECTION TO BE FOUND ON THE 4KMNAM...NMM...AND ARW MODELS AT 12Z WEDNESDAY. THIS IS EXTREMELYCONCERNING BECAUSE A BROAD WARM SECTOR WILL DEVELOP WELL INLAND IFTHESE MODELS ARE ACCURATE. WITH UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT REMOVED FROMTHE GULF COAST...AND STRAIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW INDICATED BY THESURFACE ISOBARS...I BELIEVE REASON FOR WIDESPREAD MODEL QPF ALONGTHE COAST IS MAINLY DUE TO CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK IN GLOBAL MODELS.THE LOW-AMPLITUDE NATURE OF THE TROUGH WILL ALLOW STEEP LAPSERATES TO OVERSPREAD A RICH WARM SECTOR. IF THIS WARM SECTORDEVELOPS...UPPER-LEVEL JET SUPPORT WOULD AID IN AIRMASS/CELLULARTYPE DEVELOPMENT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH ANENVIRONMENT SUFFICIENT FOR LONG-TRACK SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES.THE MOST FAVORABLE REGION FOR LONG-TRACK TORNADOES SHOULD BEACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST...NORTH OF THE 576 DM 500 MB HEIGHTCONTOUR...WHERE 500 MB WINDS WILL EXCEED 60 KTS. WE WILL HOLD OURTHREAT LEVELS STEADY FOR THIS UPDATE AND MAKE SURE WE DON`T JUMPTHE GUN. IF SHORT-RANGE MODELS TOMORROW AFTERNOON INDICATE LITTLETO NO GULF CONVECTION ON WEDNESDAY MORNING...AN UPGRADE TO THETHREAT WILL BE NEEDED.THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD SLOWLY DIMINISH AFTER 03Z THURSDAY ASTHE BEST UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT MOVES AWAY AND THE LOW-LEVEL JETWEAKENS. HEIGHT RISES WILL OCCUR ON THURSDAY...BUT A VERY MOISTAIRMASS COULD RESULT IN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT NEAR ATRAILING CONFLUENCE ZONE. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND TALL CAPE PROFILESWOULD SUPPORT A LOW-END THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS ANDHAIL IF STORMS DEVELOP. Wow, NWS Birmingham is really concerned. They're usually pretty conservative too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobertSul Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 Stop. Unless you're going to provide evidence on why, just read more and post less please. I don't understand why you guys are giving him such a hard time. It's like you find someone to dogpile on despite the fact that this kinda thing happens often with other posters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 SREF starting to key in on a potential to the north with the latest run: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 Spann's video update: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted December 22, 2015 Author Share Posted December 22, 2015 SREF starting to key in on a potential to the north with the latest run: That's suprisingly nice, the SREF is also forecasting Widespread >3 Supercell composites in our subforum east of Chicago. Sig Tor's aren't great around here, but are nice down south. (Going off topic for a split second here, if you don't like any of my past, present or future posts, send me a PM, don't talk about it in the thread, this is a weather forum and we don't need drama) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 I don't understand why you guys are giving him such a hard time. It's like you find someone to dogpile on despite the fact that this kinda thing happens often with other posters. That particular post wasn't that out there...if Stebo or any number of people would've posted the same thing I doubt there would've been a reaction. I think the body of work has been off putting for some and Andy did have a point earlier about the unnecessary one liners that don't really add anything. We all do it sometimes but it's a problem when it becomes the majority of your posts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 NAM looks a tad stronger perhaps (could be noise). I noticed some offices are favoring a slower solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 Seems like every NAM run is getting more and more aggressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 0z NAM/4km NAM seemed slower. A bit more significant down south LA/AR/MS/TN as well. With a still decent threat across IL/IN/KY/S. MI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 The 4km nam has a prefrontal convergence zone that blocks the moisture transport up to MI NW IN and N IL. It is a possible outcome but would be a mesoscale feature to watch once we get much closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 0z NAM/4km NAM seemed slower. A bit more significant down south LA/AR/MS/TN as well. With a still decent threat across IL/IN/KY/S. MI. Yeah it is slower especially with the moisture transport. That being said they already were on the slower end of guidance to begin with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rolltide_130 Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 The 4km nam has a prefrontal convergence zone that blocks the moisture transport up to MI NW IN and N IL. It is a possible outcome but would be a mesoscale feature to watch once we get much closer. It's looking like there's a morning MCV type feature across MS/AL on the 4km NAM. Not good news at all if it holds up for Dixie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 The 4km nam has a prefrontal convergence zone that blocks the moisture transport up to MI NW IN and N IL. It is a possible outcome but would be a mesoscale feature to watch once we get much closer. Looks like it's tied to that initial round of convection earlier in the day. The terrain in the Ozarks doesn't help either, as that hinders moisture return many times as well. (Evident in this case to a degree). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 4km still pretty aggressive with CAPE. @ 00z Thu: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted December 22, 2015 Author Share Posted December 22, 2015 The 4K NAM has some supercells in Southern Lower Michigan and Northern Indiana at hour 51 and 54, looking pretty gnarly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwburbschaser Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 I'm somewhat siding with climo on the threat for any areas N of around I72/74 but that southern target is intriguing. If some of the higher instability forecasts verify, look out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 It's looking like there's a morning MCV type feature across MS/AL on the 4km NAM. Not good news at all if it holds up for Dixie. Looks like it's tied to that initial round of convection earlier in the day. The terrain in the Ozarks doesn't help either, as that hinders moisture return many times as well. (Evident in this case to a degree). Yeah, have to remember 4/27/11 had the same issue with the initial round of convection, not saying this event is like that but there are some similarities. Have to remember there was a mdt pretty far north but the stuff remained TN south that day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 Looks like there could be some elevated supercells "behind" the MCV... but thankfully, looks like it'd stay away from the main threat area because another devastating factor of 4/27 was the fact that the morning storms caused widespread power outages in some of the same areas that were flattened later in the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 I wouldn't put huge stock in this but sort of interesting that many of the CIPS analogs didn't have a whole lot going on down south. If anything it was more active farther north toward our area. You can see on these maps that show the percentage of analogs with X number of severe weather reports. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 I wouldn't put huge stock in this but sort of interesting that many of the CIPS analogs didn't have a whole lot going on down south. If anything it was more active farther north toward our area. You can see on these maps that show the percentage of analogs with X number of severe weather reports. SVRall_N1_110km_nam212F048.png SVRall_N10_110km_nam212F048.png And now I changed the domain from Mississippi Valley to Southeast and the analog list is a lot different than the one for the MV domain. The analogs for the Southeast domain are pretty robust in terms of severe weather, so what this may be suggesting is that the threat area is huge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 I wouldn't put huge stock in this but sort of interesting that many of the CIPS analogs didn't have a whole lot going on down south. If anything it was more active farther north toward our area. You can see on these maps that show the percentage of analogs with X number of severe weather reports. That's because the CIPS products are highly domain dependent. If you choose the MW domain, only focus on the details in the actual MW region. The results are very different when looking at the "South East" for the same time. http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/threats.php?reg=SE&rundt=2015122200 Think of it like a nested model like the Fire-Wx NAM or the HWRF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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