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Winter 2015-16

Mr Bob

By Mr Bob,
in Tennessee Valley

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John1122

John1122

Posted
Posted

The one advantage is that the northern jet on average (per wxsouth) is at its southernmost latitude in Feb. WxSouth had a great article this evening. Basically said that the cold air has not made as far south as modelled this winter. Said the battle zone should set-up just north of I40. Going to be interesting as climo/models are opposite the MJO/teleconnections.

Didn't read it but is he talking about cold air and battle zones in North Carolina? That seems like the area where cold has had more trouble getting to than modeled. They never got as much cold as modeled during the big storm and got much less snow than expected or modeled.

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Carvers Gap

Carvers Gap

Posted
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Didn't read it but is he talking about cold air and battle zones in North Carolina? That seems like the area where cold has had more trouble getting to than modeled. They never got as much cold as modeled during the big storm and got much less snow than expected or modeled.

Basically noted that most storms have backed more north and west than originally modelled. Says the models are underestimating the strength of Pacific. Cold air in the LR does not make it as far south in reality due to the powerhouse of a southern jet. Says that is a big advantage to those in the Upper South. Also, still does not rule out winter wx south of I40.

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jaxjagman

jaxjagman

Posted
Posted

You have a good eye for those things, Jax. I may actually be wrong. That is why I was asking the question.

Not sure.Looking at East Asia on the EPS it's showing a trough that should be colder than what the weeklies advertise.But this looks like a east coast storm,but it's surely much colder looking.

 

Edit:This is around Valentines day

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Carvers Gap

Carvers Gap

Posted
Posted

The MJO on the euro is getting some stronger signals away from the COD in P4,it surely today reflects to what the weeklies are showing.I don't have my 5 and 85 maps loaded yet but by looking at the 2m's it looks flat out ugly now heading into wk3 and 4.We need help by the looks from a displaced PV.

 

JB mentioned the disconnect between the 2m and 850 temps on the Euro weeklies.  Stated that stable Arctic air masses don't work like that.  So, good catch yesterday...had a feeling you might be onto something there.  Anyway, the 850s are very cold for the second week of February but the 2m temps are not.  The 850s might represent the coldest weeks of the winter...but the 2m temps do not.  Prob a mistake on the Euro's part...but again, excellent catch, Jax.

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jaxjagman

jaxjagman

Posted
Posted

JMA strat alert

 

 

FJXN20 RJTD 290500
STRATALERT TOKYO 29 JAN
2016 05 UTC

30-HPA ANALYSIS 1200UTC 27 JAN
1. WARM MINUS 33 60N 150E,
   COLD MINUS 90 67N 75E,
   HIGH 410 55N 137W,
   LOW  178 68N 100E,
   LOW  198 70N 50W.

2. CONDITIONS
   AT 30-HPA HEIGHT FIELD,
   ANTICYCLONE IS DEVELOPING OVER AND AROUND WESTERN CANADA.
   POLAR VORTEX SPLITS INTO TWO OVER CENTRAL SIBERIA
   AND GREENLAND.
   WARM AIR LIES OVER THE SEA OF OKHOTSK AND EASTWARD.
   COLD AIR LIES OVER WESTERN SIBERIA.

3. STRATALERT EXISTS.
   MINOR WARMING CONTINUED AT 30-HPA.
   TEMPEATURE FROM EASTERN SIBERIA TO NORTHERN CANADA INCREASED
   BY MAXIMUM 32 DEGREES FROM 20 JAN 2016 TO 27 JAN 2016.

REMARK: THE HEIGHT DATA SHOULD BE READ IN DECAMETERS
        ADDING 20 KILOMETERS.=

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Carvers Gap

Carvers Gap

Posted
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LR GFS just dropped a figurative iceberg on Nashville. Wow.

Was a big run for sure. Interestingly, Robert just posted on his site that he feels the GFS and Euro are in error in bringing the cold so far south. Feels they are overdone w the cold.

I did notice the CPC ensemble trying to take the AO negative to strongly negative.

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jaxjagman

jaxjagman

Posted
Posted

Was a big run for sure. Interestingly, Robert just posted on his site that he feels the GFS and Euro are in error in bringing the cold so far south. Feels they are overdone w the cold.

I did notice the CPC ensemble trying to take the AO negative to strongly negative.

Think the models are off a day or two,but i like the looks :popcorn:

 

post-3027-0-57345100-1454190830_thumb.pn

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Carvers Gap

Carvers Gap

Posted
Posted

Was a big run for sure. Interestingly, Robert just posted on his site that he feels the GFS and Euro are in error in bringing the cold so far south. Feels they are overdone w the cold.

I did notice the CPC ensemble trying to take the AO negative to strongly negative.

 

Which I might add is a bit odd for WxSouth considering the FB page was hyping repetitive cold shots yesterday...

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jaxjagman

jaxjagman

Posted
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Which I might add is a bit odd for WxSouth considering the FB page was hyping repetitive cold shots yesterday...

We'll see Carver.GEFS and EPS  both suggest this will be this will be a cutter.As  crazy as it sounds going with the CMC timing looks good to me,this seems to be a legit chance.This is now three runs in a row the GFS is showed,could be good for us or a  :blahblah:

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Carvers Gap

Carvers Gap

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Posted

We'll see Carver.GEFS and EPS both suggest this will be this will be a cutter.As crazy as it sounds going with the CMC timing looks good to me,this seems to be a legit chance.This is now three runs in a row the GFS is showed,could be good for us or a :blahblah:

Not talking about a specific event...general pattern for the next few weeks. Not following an actual event at the moment. I am not sure I could even name an event or timeframe. Just trying to see when the cold arrives, its severity or lack of it, and duration.

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jaxjagman

jaxjagman

Posted
Posted

Not talking about a specific event...general pattern for the next few weeks. Not following an actual event at the moment. I am not sure I could even name an event or timeframe. Just trying to see when the cold arrives, its severity or lack of it, and duration.

This is on todays eps is showing signs of a strong -epo that would send cross polar air into the middle of the country

 

post-3027-0-76718300-1454198933_thumb.pn

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Carvers Gap

Carvers Gap

Posted
Posted

This is on todays eps is showing signs of a strong -epo that would send cross polar air into the middle of the country

Numerical Model Prediction Tropical Tidbits.png

The models look great for sure. But when guys like DonS, WxSouth, and Jeff are expressing concerns to one degree or another about various indicators that do not show cold...starts to feel like one is going against the Euro model. Those are a good cross section of folks and all are expressing concerns. The MJO has to be near the top of the list followed by Pacific energy which is preventing cold air from penetrating southward. Seems we have teleconnections and various indices that are positioned opposite of each other. I still think we have a nice period of winter wx ahead, but I am far less certain of that than when the pattern flipped in early Jan. For once I am pulling for the Euro weeklies to be correct.

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Runman292

Runman292

Posted
Posted

The models look great for sure. But when guys like DonS, WxSouth, and Jeff are expressing concerns to one degree or another about various indicators that do not show cold...starts to feel like one is going against the Euro model. Those are a good cross section of folks and all are expressing concerns. The MJO has to be near the top of the list followed by Pacific energy which is preventing cold air from penetrating southward. Seems we have teleconnections and various indices that are positioned opposite of each other. I still think we have a nice period of winter wx ahead, but I am far less certain of that than when the pattern flipped in early Jan. For once I am pulling for the Euro weeklies to be correct.

As long as David Aldrich doesn't pull back on his snowy February forecast, I will be confident.

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ShawnEastTN

ShawnEastTN

Posted
Posted

I feel pretty confident post first week of Feb.  After about a week of Feb I believe from what i'm seeing that we begin to cool again it could be marginal as is a lot of times the case for our region but most of our biggest storms as in large single storm accumulations occurred in those marginal barely below freezing scenarios.  I think we are in a classic January thaw currently, winter will return soon.  Side note it was nice enough today that I got the smoker out and smoked a pork butt...  Not too upset with the warm up as long as its not permanent.  I don't believe it is.

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jaxjagman

jaxjagman

Posted
Posted

The models look great for sure. But when guys like DonS, WxSouth, and Jeff are expressing concerns to one degree or another about various indicators that do not show cold...starts to feel like one is going against the Euro model. Those are a good cross section of folks and all are expressing concerns. The MJO has to be near the top of the list followed by Pacific energy which is preventing cold air from penetrating southward. Seems we have teleconnections and various indices that are positioned opposite of each other. I still think we have a nice period of winter wx ahead, but I am far less certain of that than when the pattern flipped in early Jan. For once I am pulling for the Euro weeklies to be correct.

We'll see what happens,there isnt a long range model that dont support a snow threat right now.East Asia supports this next week,we will see

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Daniel Boone

Daniel Boone

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Posted

The models look great for sure. But when guys like DonS, WxSouth, and Jeff are expressing concerns to one degree or another about various indicators that do not show cold...starts to feel like one is going against the Euro model. Those are a good cross section of folks and all are expressing concerns. The MJO has to be near the top of the list followed by Pacific energy which is preventing cold air from penetrating southward. Seems we have teleconnections and various indices that are positioned opposite of each other. I still think we have a nice period of winter wx ahead, but I am far less certain of that than when the pattern flipped in early Jan. For once I am pulling for the Euro weeklies to be correct.

Don and Robert Yes but, Jeff, when is he ever not pessimistic when it comes to any cold or snow. Lol.

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John1122

John1122

Posted
Posted

All the models are keying on a storm around day 9-11 right now with plenty of cold lurking near by. They could easily all be wrong but so far they are reeling both the storm and the huge cold shots ever closer. Once we get past the big storm in the lakes in a few days details should be much more clear than they are now. But if the cold comes as advertised, the forecasts calling for a below average Jan-March will be looking pretty good, as it looks like days 1-3 of February will be above normal, then we spend a lot of the rest of the month below normal with strong cold shots rolling into the area one after another.

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