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November 20-21 Early Season Snowstorm


Hoosier

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Tricky call here being about 5-6 miles inland from the lake.  I've got to think there will be at least some marine influence, but overall I'm more optimistic about amounts then yesterday.  I'm thinking 4-6" is doable for mby.  If marine influence is negligible, then over 6" might be possible.

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Tricky call here being about 5-6 miles inland from the lake.  I've got to think there will be at least some marine influence, but overall I'm more optimistic about amounts then yesterday.  I'm thinking 4-6" is doable for mby.  If marine influence is negligible, then over 6" might be possible.

I think your issue will be more lack of QPF than temperatures. The Euro actually backed off a fair amount on the southern end from its 00z run.

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I think your issue will be more lack of QPF than temperatures. The Euro actually backed off a fair amount on the southern end from its 00z run.

 

 

Yeah that's a concern.  Riding the southern edge of the better amounts, though some models indicating AOA .75" here.

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euro consistently showing around 6" for our area, so that has to count for something

 

I think the hi-res guidance is too aggressive with the lakefront rain, especially the HRRR. Perhaps we see some rain mixed in with the snow at the very onset, but I think this is without a doubt a mostly-- if not all snow-- event.

 

I'm going to adjust my call slightly and say 3-5 for the city proper, perhaps slightly less on the immediate lake front. I could see a maximum of an inch difference in the West Loop vs. Navy Pier. The Euro backed off a bit from the numbers it was spitting out yesterday for our area. I'm inclined to think the Euro as it stands now is a good call. NAM and RGEM imo are a bit too bullish for us.

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I think the hi-res guidance is too aggressive with the lakefront rain, especially the HRRR. Perhaps we see some rain mixed in with the snow at the very onset, but I think this is without a doubt a mostly-- if not all snow-- event.

 

I'm going to adjust my call slightly and say 3-5 for the city proper, perhaps slightly less on the immediate lake front. I could see a maximum of an inch difference in the West Loop vs. Navy Pier. The Euro backed off a bit from the numbers it was spitting out yesterday for our area. I'm inclined to think the Euro as it stands now is a good call. NAM and RGEM imo are a bit too bullish for us.

 

 

Agree, really don't see rain with a possible exception being at onset.  With 950 mb below 0C, it would have to be an inferno underneath to not get flakes to the surface.

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Charger, the NAM was assuming that the lake temps would hamper our snow, which no other model shows and the NAMs thermal profiles didn't show it happening.

 

 

Hillsdale is like 100 miles inland so I'm going to go way out on a limb and say that the less snowy NAM solution was for another reason.

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My memory could be faulty but I seem to remember more low level warmth being progged back in that November 2004 storm...I think 950 mb had trouble dropping below 0C near the lake, which would've meant a deeper warm layer near the surface.  fwiw and I can't say for sure that I'm right, and there's probably no way to go back and check something like that.

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My memory could be faulty but I seem to remember more low level warmth being progged back in that November 2004 storm...I think 950 mb had trouble dropping below 0C near the lake, which would've meant a deeper warm layer near the surface.  fwiw and I can't say for sure that I'm right, and there's probably no way to go back and check something like that.

 

 

I would suspect that was the case. I went back and looked at MDW's obs earlier, they were like 44 with a 20 mph NE wind at 1 am, light rain at 8 am and didn't flip to snow until after 2 pm with a temp around 34. I think the lighter winds are going to keep the warm layer much more shallow.

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