40/70 Benchmark Posted November 12, 2015 Author Share Posted November 12, 2015 I read it thoroughly. You mentioned solar and the QBO as potential reasons why the SAI failed last year, and that the lesson learned was to give them greater consideration. But then you stated that although the QBO could again be hostile to -N/AO this year, you didn't give it much weight because there isn't enough information on it. My opinion is that the magnitude of the index's failure last year has to be given some consideration, and if solar and/or QBO were to blame then they could have a significant effect this year as well. Just from a timing perspective, if there was an unaccounted-for variable that interfered with the signal last year, then this year would seem to have an elevated chance of it reoccurring just due to the proximity to last year and the chance of the variable still existing in an interfering state. It is possible for us to agree to disagree about it without questioning the other's reading comprehension skills... Regarding the formatting, look at the word "driver" that ends the first sentence of the first paragraph: "drive" is on the first line, and "r" starts the second line. Or the second line of the first paragraph which ends with the letter "h" and continues on the next line with "owever". You said that you read it on your mobile, and I don't know about you, but I would have missed something trying to read a piece that extensive on a mobile device. I wasn't questioning your reading comprehension skills. Sorry it came across that way. I don't view that formatting glitch as a big deal, but I'm not highly skilled in the nuances of formatting. How do you prevent it? Fair enough regarding the QBO/solar....I did state that it offered a formidable voice of dissent....but the solar flux is moderate this year, as opposed to high last season. Now, if the SAI fails again, I'm all ears regarding the QBO.....but the preponderance of empirical data combined with the slightly weaker sun changed my mind, as I had originally boarded the +AO/NAO "persistence" express last autumn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted November 12, 2015 Share Posted November 12, 2015 Awesome writeup! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 12, 2015 Author Share Posted November 12, 2015 People are too fixated on the SAI....I displayed a lot of other evidence in support of a neg AO/NAO...all of which was cogently articulated, imho. It is what it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 12, 2015 Share Posted November 12, 2015 hard to disconnect snow and temperature. there is liq eq calculated passe at most climo sites, but trying to predict snow totals ... commendably brave but also 'should' be hugely guided by temperature trends. i wasn't able to read much deeper than the first couple of clicks on that but will later; if that's been covered, cool - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 12, 2015 Author Share Posted November 12, 2015 hard to disconnect snow and temperature. there is liq eq calculated passe at most climo sites, but trying to predict snow totals ... commendably brave but also 'should' be hugely guided by temperature trends. i wasn't able to read much deeper than the first couple of clicks on that but will later; if that's been covered, cool - Mainly further south....once you get below I 84. North of there, our snowfall is actually more closely correlated with precip. It is better to be cold, though....obviously, but het the precip. first of all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MichaelJ Posted November 12, 2015 Share Posted November 12, 2015 Even Michael Jordan approves. Come on man, don't out me like that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted November 12, 2015 Share Posted November 12, 2015 not reading Why are you even here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted November 12, 2015 Share Posted November 12, 2015 very nicely done, Ray...I still need to read the whole thing...will do when I have 3 hours to set aside...I did read a little before I jumped to the money shot... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 12, 2015 Author Share Posted November 12, 2015 very nicely done, Ray...I still need to read the whole thing...will do when I have 3 hours to set aside...I did read a little before I jumped to the money shot... Likewise with yours. I'll read when I get home, but word on the street is that you are winter cancel lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 14, 2015 Share Posted November 14, 2015 Ray I know its late but here is something to mull over regarding your sunspots QBO PV interest http://www.geo.fu-berlin.de/en/met/ag/strat/produkte/northpole/index.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 15, 2015 Author Share Posted November 15, 2015 Thanks. Glad to see el nino is peaking.....everything is one track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2K4 Posted November 15, 2015 Share Posted November 15, 2015 Ray I know its late but here is something to mull over regarding your sunspots QBO PV interest http://www.geo.fu-berlin.de/en/met/ag/strat/produkte/northpole/index.html Dumb question but I was wondering if you may be able to give a brief rundown of your thoughts regarding this. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 15, 2015 Share Posted November 15, 2015 Joe D"aleo winter forecast http://www.bluehill.org/BHO201516WINTER.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 15, 2015 Share Posted November 15, 2015 Dumb question but I was wondering if you may be able to give a brief rundown of your thoughts regarding this. Thanks.seemingly sunspot number has an effect on PV strength with QBO influence being variable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 16, 2015 Author Share Posted November 16, 2015 Joe D"aleo winter forecast http://www.bluehill.org/BHO201516WINTER.pdf No fair. He copied my outlook JK, of course.....but very, very similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 16, 2015 Author Share Posted November 16, 2015 I expect DT to join the mini consensus party shortly, as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 16, 2015 Share Posted November 16, 2015 No fair. He copied my outlook JK, of course.....but very, very similar. Not that I disagree with the outlook any, but I will say that write up suggests that Nino 1+2 isn't strong, thus making this El Nino a "weaker, central" one. 1+2 is still stronger than all but '82-'83 and '97-'98 in the last 30+ years. Not that I expect WeatherBell to stray from cold and snowy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 16, 2015 Author Share Posted November 16, 2015 Not that I disagree with the outlook any, but I will say that write up suggests that Nino 1+2 isn't strong, thus making this El Nino a "weaker, central" one. 1+2 is still stronger than all but '82-'83 and '97-'98 in the last 30+ years. Not that I expect WeatherBell to stray from cold and snowy. I don't think he stressed it because it isn't that important, TBH. The greatest anomalies and forcing...go west, young man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 16, 2015 Share Posted November 16, 2015 1,2 are no where near the 28 degree forcing line like 97,98 or the other super nino years Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 16, 2015 Author Share Posted November 16, 2015 1,2 are no where near the 28 degree forcing line like 97,98 or the other super nino years 2*C cooler than 1997. I have no issues with the outlook......Tom's is great, too. I agree 110%. This winter forecast is a slam dunk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 16, 2015 Share Posted November 16, 2015 1,2 are no where near the 28 degree forcing line like 97,98 or the other super nino years Totally, about +2.5 versus 4 or 4.5, but calling it not strong is not correct either. I don't have the exact stats crunched, but I would wager it's in the upper echelon of 1+2 readings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 16, 2015 Author Share Posted November 16, 2015 Totally, about +2.5 versus 4 or 4.5, but calling it not strong is not correct either. I don't have the exact stats crunched, but I would wager it's in the upper echelon of 1+2 readings. Semantics, imo......he probably just mean it is much weaker than 1997 in that region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted November 16, 2015 Share Posted November 16, 2015 1,2 are no where near the 28 degree forcing line like 97,98 or the other super nino years Nino 1 2 was not 28c at this time in 97. It climatological warms through the winter. It didn't reach that until January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 16, 2015 Author Share Posted November 16, 2015 Its also ironic that you are critical of that outlook for misrepresenting facts, when in fact it is you that mischaracterized that outlook as "cold and snow" here because it is neither. It is normal in the aggregate throughout NE, and if anything, a touch warm. I have noticed folks referring to forecasts that are not the incarnation of 1998, as cold and snowy....not sure why. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 16, 2015 Share Posted November 16, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 16, 2015 Author Share Posted November 16, 2015 Well, you are the first one to question someone who jumps down your throat for protesting your "warm" thoughts on a pattern....when in fact you are just not hung-ho on cold and snowy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 16, 2015 Share Posted November 16, 2015 Well, you are the first one to question someone who jumps down your throat for protesting your "warm" thoughts on a pattern....when in fact you are just not hung-ho on cold and snowy. LOL, I gotcha with that comment. I've already stated my stance. I think it's a reasonable guess. I'm not on the polar express, nor the torch train. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 16, 2015 Author Share Posted November 16, 2015 LOL, I gotcha with that comment. I've already stated my stance. I think it's a reasonable guess. I'm not on the polar express, nor the torch train. Yea, I know.....I think that is the way to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 16, 2015 Share Posted November 16, 2015 And I don't protest anyone. I would actually argue the opposite. If it's not a cold and snowy outlook, I usually get a passive aggressive chart thrown at me to go against my thoughts, if my outlook is not full of dendrites. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 16, 2015 Share Posted November 16, 2015 Its also ironic that you are critical of that outlook for misrepresenting facts, when in fact it is you that mischaracterized that outlook as "cold and snow" here because it is neither. It is normal in the aggregate throughout NE, and if anything, a touch warm. I have noticed folks referring to forecasts that are not the incarnation of 1998, as cold and snowy....not sure why. I'm not sure why people get so uptight over this winter forecast stuff, but when you place New England on the edge of positive precip and negative temp anomalies and chuck the last two winters (plus '02-'03) as analogs, it's definitely tipping the scales towards cold and snow. All I was saying is that I think calling 1+2 as something other than a strong anomaly is mis-characterizing it. I don't think it submarines our winter in and of itself, but it felt like the WeatherBell outlook tossed it just a little too carelessly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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