bdgwx Posted November 7, 2015 Share Posted November 7, 2015 I noticed that. You can see a quasi-dryline encroaching into western MO before it starts mixing out. It's pretty well mixed out by the time it reaches the Mississippi River. Edit: It surges much farther east on the Euro making it almost to St. Louis before mixing out. That almost never happens even in the spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted November 7, 2015 Share Posted November 7, 2015 Didn't see this mentioned but you can actually pick out a dryline type surge that comes pretty far east on the GFS on Wednesday afternoon/evening. #ifitwasApril Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted November 7, 2015 Share Posted November 7, 2015 18Z GFS almost in range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted November 7, 2015 Share Posted November 7, 2015 At Hour 102, Thar she blows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 7, 2015 Share Posted November 7, 2015 instantweathermaps is quicker if you want to use that, but I like COD for all the features. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted November 7, 2015 Share Posted November 7, 2015 meh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted November 7, 2015 Share Posted November 7, 2015 meh Uh.... What? It's an 18Z run 5 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted November 7, 2015 Share Posted November 7, 2015 #ifitwasApril #orMarch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted November 7, 2015 Share Posted November 7, 2015 18Z GFS is a little weaker than the 12Z, could be alot worse. Remember: 18Z Runs are always somewhat iffy this far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted November 7, 2015 Share Posted November 7, 2015 18Z GFS is a little weaker than the 12Z, could be alot worse. Remember: 18Z Runs are always somewhat iffy this far out. These posts are getting pretty inane. And heh, the GFS showing another monstrous system the week after. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwburbschaser Posted November 7, 2015 Share Posted November 7, 2015 That warm sector blows. Looks like a very potent system that will mostly go to waste. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted November 7, 2015 Share Posted November 7, 2015 That warm sector blows. Looks like a very potent system that will mostly go to waste. Quit complaining, were getting active. This is a wind system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted November 7, 2015 Share Posted November 7, 2015 That warm sector blows. Looks like a very potent system that will mostly go to waste. 2015 in a nutshell. This is why +EPO > -EPO, troughing setting up over AK and the Gulf of Alaska along with a -PNA can really set up some big cutters. Quit complaining, were getting active. This is a wind system. Your posts have no substance to them, just FYI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwburbschaser Posted November 7, 2015 Share Posted November 7, 2015 These posts are getting pretty inane. And heh, the GFS showing another monstrous system the week after. Now that's a storm right there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 7, 2015 Share Posted November 7, 2015 To illustrate what I mentioned a little while ago, here are 18z GFS dewpoints. We don't have good moisture in place in the days prior to this storm so what we don't want is a narrowing true warm sector as suggested here. This got worse compared to 12z so it will be something to keep an eye on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted November 7, 2015 Share Posted November 7, 2015 102 Hours: 105 Hours: 108: 18Z has: Less instability than the 12Z further east Winds are slightly lesser than the 12Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwburbschaser Posted November 7, 2015 Share Posted November 7, 2015 Yea Hoosier, that narrow warm sector is not a good look, and I really don't like the downward trend from the 12z to 18z runs. I'd want to see that going the other way as we get closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted November 7, 2015 Share Posted November 7, 2015 Agreed, that narrow warm sector is very worrying, I'm not worried about downturn as we are still quite a bit out, and this a 18Z Run after all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted November 7, 2015 Share Posted November 7, 2015 What annoys me is that we haven't been able to get these type of systems (wound up / negative tilt) in the dead of winter lately, when it's cold enough for precipitation beyond stratiform rain. Think December 1, 2006 for example. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IllinoisWedges Posted November 7, 2015 Share Posted November 7, 2015 Just a quick question, why are 18z models considered, I guess, and outlier? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 7, 2015 Share Posted November 7, 2015 Just a quick question, why are 18z models considered, I guess, and outlier?The models aren't considered an outlier but this model run of the GFS is an outlier to the previous runs because it occluded quicker than the previous runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted November 7, 2015 Share Posted November 7, 2015 Just a quick question, why are 18z models considered, I guess, and outlier? This run occlusion and less instability makes it a massive outlier In general: The 18Z GFS has the worst verification at hour 120 than any of the runs, followed by the 06Z which is slightly better, with the 0Z and 12Z generally being close for the best. I don't have a run bias, this run just seems iffy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IllinoisWedges Posted November 7, 2015 Share Posted November 7, 2015 Alright, thanks guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted November 7, 2015 Share Posted November 7, 2015 This run occlusion and less instability makes it a massive outlier In general: The 18Z GFS has the worst verification at hour 120 than any of the runs, followed by the 06Z which is slightly better, with the 0Z and 12Z generally being close for the best. I don't have a run bias, this run just seems iffy. Didn't the 12z Euro also occlude quicker than the 12z GFS? Which means this run isn't a "massive outlier"? But I guess it's just as easy to toss this run since the 12z runs verify just ever so slightly better than 18z runs at 120 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted November 8, 2015 Share Posted November 8, 2015 I understand the worries about instability being weak and the warm sector being narrow and all that... trust me, I'd like some severe weather too... but I'm excited for this system regardless. It's a hell of a system. Even if we don't get a low-topped squall, it looks like there's gonna be the possibility of non-convective damaging winds. It's been a while since I've been under a high wind watch/warning. That'd be cool. I mean, look at this system. Sure, it has so much more potential than what will likely transpire... but sometimes ya gotta sit back and enjoy the event for what it is from a Meteorological perspective. Just like this year's Nino.. I'm gonna enjoy tracking this until it's gone, regardless of the outcome Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 8, 2015 Share Posted November 8, 2015 What annoys me is that we haven't been able to get these type of systems (wound up / negative tilt) in the dead of winter lately, when it's cold enough for precipitation beyond stratiform rain. Think December 1, 2006 for example. If I'm right about my winter outlook, there should be more chances at these big bombs. Of course, no guarantees that they will track favorably or be cold enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 8, 2015 Share Posted November 8, 2015 Didn't the 12z Euro also occlude quicker than the 12z GFS? Which means this run isn't a "massive outlier"? But I guess it's just as easy to toss this run since the 12z runs verify just ever so slightly better than 18z runs at 120 hours. Yeah, the off hour runs are not as bad as they are sometimes made out to be. Use them for trends and a piece of the larger puzzle. If I was told I could only look at 2 model cycles per day, I'd probably pick 00z and 12z, but the off hour runs aren't bad enough to where they should just be tossed out of hand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted November 8, 2015 Share Posted November 8, 2015 Yeah, the off hour runs are not as bad as they are sometimes made out to be. Use them for trends and a piece of the larger puzzle. If I was told I could only look at 2 model cycles per day, I'd probably pick 00z and 12z, but the off hour runs aren't bad enough to where they should just be tossed out of hand. I can't wait until we get into NAM range... it usually has some interesting solutions in its long range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted November 8, 2015 Share Posted November 8, 2015 If I'm right about my winter outlook, there should be more chances at these big bombs. Of course, no guarantees that they will track favorably or be cold enough. We finally have a decent STJ to work with this Winter, so that should help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brohnhdon Posted November 8, 2015 Share Posted November 8, 2015 To those making a big deal out of the minor shift in the 12Z to 18Z solutions...what exactly do you expect? This system is still 5 days out and quite frankly the current solution is very likely to change drastically. Exhibit A; the very last system to affect the region. 5 days out 50-60 mph gusts were resolved over a very large portion of the area. When the physical system actually came to fruition, the low had formed much further north and gusts ended up being much lower. Its good to look at trends but one slight shift 5 days out is hardly significant. What was modeled by the GFS 5-days out: What ended up actually happening: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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