HillsdaleMIWeather Posted November 7, 2015 Share Posted November 7, 2015 Thinking that will change a bit by tonight. GFS has moved the system further N from the 12z guidance. Also, it has strengthened it from 1002mb to 994mb on the 18z. But, everyone I talk to on Twitter seems to dismiss this next storm, as saying it won't do anything. :/ People are in the "want it to happen, but not very willing to PUNT" mode Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 7, 2015 Author Share Posted November 7, 2015 Thinking that will change a bit by tonight. GFS has moved the system further N from the 12z guidance. Also, it has strengthened it from 1002mb to 994mb on the 18z. But, everyone I talk to on Twitter seems to dismiss this next storm, as saying it won't do anything. :/ huh? Why do you think it will change? Both the 12z and 18z GFS take the sfc low from just north of STL to Gary.. Ugh. Twitter. Ugh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IllinoisWedges Posted November 7, 2015 Share Posted November 7, 2015 huh? Why do you think it will change? Both the 12z and 18z GFS take the sfc low from just north of STL to Gary.. Ugh. Twitter. Ugh Was talking about the CIPS analogs. Just talking about how the low was just a tad bit N of where it was when they took the 12z analog run. Unless, it goes back south with the 00z. Just a vague statement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 7, 2015 Share Posted November 7, 2015 Was talking about the CIPS analogs. Just talking about how the low was just a tad bit N of where it was when they took the 12z analog run. Unless, it goes back south with the 00z. Just a vague statement. There's a lot that goes into the CIPS formula. MSLP is only one variable... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brohnhdon Posted November 7, 2015 Share Posted November 7, 2015 I really like this setup. Even if we can only get 100-250 j/kg of CAPE, with helicity values well over 600, I could see a major QLCS event occurring. 60+ dew points stretch all the way into Indiana and with 60+ kts at 925 mb only increasing with height, this could put 10/31/13 to shame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 7, 2015 Share Posted November 7, 2015 00z GFS is even more amped up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted November 7, 2015 Share Posted November 7, 2015 00z GFS is even more amped up. Sub 980 in south central wisco by 6z 12NOV Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 7, 2015 Share Posted November 7, 2015 Besides whatever severe threat, substantial strong/damaging non-thunderstorm wind threat on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted November 7, 2015 Share Posted November 7, 2015 Bomb quick on that 0z GFS run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted November 7, 2015 Share Posted November 7, 2015 Okay, wow lads. This is freakin' wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 7, 2015 Share Posted November 7, 2015 If this run is on target, it would be one of the better wind setups we've seen at least in the past few years. Phenomenal wind fields Wednesday into Thursday (50-65 kts as low as 925 mb), rapidly deepening surface low and fairly strong CAA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 7, 2015 Share Posted November 7, 2015 Pretty impressive pressure gradient considering you have 977 in southern WI and 1031 in CO at 126hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted November 7, 2015 Share Posted November 7, 2015 Severe data about to come into range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 7, 2015 Share Posted November 7, 2015 If this run is on target, it would be one of the better wind setups we've seen at least in the past few years. Phenomenal wind fields Wednesday into Thursday (50-65 kts as low as 925 mb), rapidly deepening surface low and fairly strong CAA. Yeah it's looking extremely impressive. New GFS showing a wide swath of sustained 34-38kts at 10m in the western and southern quads of the departing surface low. That would equate to a legit high wind warning setup for a wide swath if it were to verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 7, 2015 Share Posted November 7, 2015 Even in the warm sector, the wind profiles get pretty crazy Wednesday evening, though deeper mixing can be harder to come by in that region sometimes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 7, 2015 Author Share Posted November 7, 2015 The southern wave/trof come out as a whole this run which allows for this to reach its max potential. The northern shortwave that was showing up on previous runs across the northern plains and into MN isn't there this run. Much stronger mid-level jet streak as this thing ejects out on tonight's 0z run and then it's bombs away. Below freezing temps at 850mb are able to get wrapped and advected into it into NE but even below that it's too cold for any snow. Pretty wide expansion of 50-60kts at 925mb late Weds night into Thursday morning as it bombs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted November 7, 2015 Share Posted November 7, 2015 0Z has less of a severe threat, but... who cares if that wind happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 7, 2015 Share Posted November 7, 2015 Nice swath of 50-60kts at 925 as Hoosier mentioned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted November 7, 2015 Share Posted November 7, 2015 Canadian takes her down to 984 ish north of detroit...cyclone to geos to north of Detroit path Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted November 7, 2015 Share Posted November 7, 2015 Man those warm 500 mb temps are just a giant pain considering how spring went. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bdgwx Posted November 7, 2015 Share Posted November 7, 2015 Pretty impressive pressure gradient considering you have 977 in southern WI and 1031 in CO at 126hrs. Yeah, 37mb drop from it's outermost closed isobar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 7, 2015 Share Posted November 7, 2015 Man those warm 500 mb temps are just a giant pain considering how spring went. We'd either have a high end wind or tornado outbreak with this setup if instability was better, no doubt about it. I'll be interested to see if the NAM is better when it gets in range as we all know how the GFS can tend to be underdone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 7, 2015 Share Posted November 7, 2015 CMC: 850mb winds. Look out SE MI, IN and OH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted November 7, 2015 Share Posted November 7, 2015 GFS with 50-60mph+ wind gusts here on the front side and backside of the system. Don't see that often. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 7, 2015 Share Posted November 7, 2015 GFS with 50-60mph+ wind gusts here on the front side and backside of the system. Don't see that often. Check out the obs from 11/10/1998. This run of the GFS is even more impressive. http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KORD/1998/11/10/DailyHistory.html?req_city=Chicago-O%27Hare+International&req_state=IL&req_statename=Illinois&reqdb.zip=60666&reqdb.magic=5&reqdb.wmo=99999 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 7, 2015 Share Posted November 7, 2015 You know, the more I think about it, the more I wonder if we'd still get a pretty robust severe weather event even with the lackluster instability on the GFS. I always say, watch out for unusual results with unusual systems, and such a deep/bombing surface low with those kinds of wind fields is not something you see in our area very often. Plus we aren't talking about an entirely pathetic airmass as dews are modeled to be in the 50s/60s. 11/10/1998 wasn't anything to write home about as far as instability and look what happened: Who knows if the GFS solution pans out though or if it ultimately trends more tame. We still have 5 days to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted November 7, 2015 Share Posted November 7, 2015 You know, the more I think about it, the more I wonder if we'd still get a pretty robust severe weather event even with the lackluster instability on the GFS. I always say, watch out for unusual results with unusual systems, and such a deep/bombing surface low with those kinds of wind fields is not something you see in our area very often. Plus we aren't talking about an entirely pathetic airmass as dews are modeled to be in the 50s/60s. 11/10/1998 wasn't anything to write home about as far as instability and look what happened: 98.png Who knows if the GFS solution pans out though or if it ultimately trends more tame. We still have 5 days to go. Kinda goes without saying but it's too early to call on things like will there be enough instability etc as you allude to. Pattern recognition wise, if something as strong as some of these operational runs are showing occurs, I'd be surprised if it's not accompanied by a fairly robust severe threat. The non t-storm wind threat looks impressive from this vantage point. Overall think a cautious approach is best for a few days and look at the op runs as part of the ensemble envelope. Didn't get a chance to look at individuals on the 12z GEFS, but there had to have been a decent amount of weaker/less organized solutions based off the mean. Hopefully it remains something fun to track up to go time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted November 7, 2015 Share Posted November 7, 2015 Euro looks even stronger than GFS through H120 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted November 7, 2015 Share Posted November 7, 2015 Euro is bombing this thing out significantly further west on Wed it appears. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 7, 2015 Share Posted November 7, 2015 Euro is bombing this thing out significantly further west on Wed it appears. 80 kt 850 mb winds on the back side in Nebraska... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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