Gilbertfly Posted November 9, 2015 Share Posted November 9, 2015 Think LOT will ever mention severe weather like ILX has been doing? They will win the time is right if it is warranted ... They have handled it pretty solidly thus far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted November 9, 2015 Share Posted November 9, 2015 IWX's afternoon AFD was very informative, but cautious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 9, 2015 Share Posted November 9, 2015 00z NAM looking very similar to the previous run. One thing though is that it could tick slower if the changes so far continue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted November 9, 2015 Share Posted November 9, 2015 0Z NAM is Stronger than the 18Z, can't tell on winds due to timing differences. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 9, 2015 Share Posted November 9, 2015 0Z NAM is Stronger than the 18Z, can't tell on winds due to timing differences. Stronger in what way? Looks the same to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted November 9, 2015 Share Posted November 9, 2015 Stronger in what way? Looks the same to me. Barometric Pressure is lower further away from the center. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwburbschaser Posted November 9, 2015 Share Posted November 9, 2015 It came in a little slower, but I'm not sure about being any stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IllinoisWedges Posted November 9, 2015 Share Posted November 9, 2015 New NAM looks to be further west. :/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted November 9, 2015 Share Posted November 9, 2015 Keeps ticking slower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted November 9, 2015 Share Posted November 9, 2015 Some impressive soundings in this one too. The first is NE KS again... the second is along the MO/IA border Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted November 9, 2015 Share Posted November 9, 2015 It does have more instability than the 18Z further east, so we could be having some fun. Still has high winds as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 9, 2015 Share Posted November 9, 2015 NAM definitely is not as robust with the front end wind threat, as it has cooler/more stable low levels. I've seen it try to pull similar stuff in winter storm setups though so I'm not sure whether to believe it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted November 9, 2015 Share Posted November 9, 2015 Definitely agreed Hoosier, well see what the GFS and ECMWF has to say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 9, 2015 Share Posted November 9, 2015 Lol. Wow. Quite the hodo there. This is near the QC at 00z off new NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 9, 2015 Share Posted November 9, 2015 Check this out from SPI. Manages to generate a bit of MLCAPE even with mid level lapse rates of 4C lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted November 9, 2015 Share Posted November 9, 2015 0Z GFS running. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted November 9, 2015 Share Posted November 9, 2015 0Z GFS running. We know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IllinoisWedges Posted November 9, 2015 Share Posted November 9, 2015 GFS doesn't bite at the further W option. At least, from what I've seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 9, 2015 Share Posted November 9, 2015 Strongest in SW WI. Decent dewpoint spike in IL for mid-November. Some shear present. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted November 9, 2015 Share Posted November 9, 2015 0Z GFS: Didnt shift west. Winds got stronger a little. Instability: Seems abit greater per IWM, COD is not updating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted November 9, 2015 Share Posted November 9, 2015 I think I need to stress that the CAPE in the mid/low levels here are really not unimpressive at all. A lot of the soundings I've seen show pretty fat CAPE profiles up to the EL (which is generally between 400-500 mb). There is a very large amount of 0-3 km CAPE available for low level stretching here. You could feasibly have some pretty robust updrafts, just obviously low topped storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IllinoisWedges Posted November 9, 2015 Share Posted November 9, 2015 Wish the GFS was a bit better with CAPE overall. Seems like it always downplays things in convective terms. Unless, it's summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IllinoisWedges Posted November 9, 2015 Share Posted November 9, 2015 For anyone who cares about the CMC/GEM. It agrees with the GFS on position. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted November 9, 2015 Share Posted November 9, 2015 For anyone who cares about the CMC/GEM. It agrees with the GFS on position. We can look at the GGEM if we want to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted November 9, 2015 Share Posted November 9, 2015 I think I need to stress that the CAPE in the mid/low levels here are really not unimpressive at all. A lot of the soundings I've seen show pretty fat CAPE profiles up to the EL (which is generally between 400-500 mb). There is a very large amount of 0-3 km CAPE available for low level stretching here. You could feasibly have some pretty robust updrafts, just obviously low topped storms. Great point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxDanny Posted November 9, 2015 Share Posted November 9, 2015 http://climate.cod.edu/hanis/satellite/hemi/index-mobile.php?type=s_pacific-wv-1-24&checked=Array&prodDim=100&overDim=100 Here she comes! Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 9, 2015 Share Posted November 9, 2015 I know it's been mentioned but this early occlusion stinks in terms of ensuring a more robust severe threat farther north/east. fwiw, here's the CIPS list using the southern Plains domain at 60 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted November 9, 2015 Share Posted November 9, 2015 I will post the ECMWF maps once in range in roughly thirty mins. So far no changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted November 9, 2015 Share Posted November 9, 2015 ECMWF overview and CIPS: [removed graphics] At hour 54, trending stronger than it was in the same location at 12Z At Hour 60, same as the 12Z Hour 66 is the same as 12Z Hour 72 looking as juicy as ever The CIPS analog this time around looks more reasonable: with the second to top analog looking alot like this system, only with the low further west: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted November 9, 2015 Share Posted November 9, 2015 Some pretty cellular looking QPF/VV signals from the Euro through Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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