Thundersnow12 Posted November 10, 2015 Author Share Posted November 10, 2015 I'll also be curious how far south any leftover moisture gets on Friday morning, could have some wind whipped snow showers around here or close by. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 GFS forecast soundings would indicate some high wind warning criteria possibilities for northern IL early Thu. The soundings indicate mixing up to about 900mb, where winds are in the 55-60kt range. That's 60-70mph just off the deck. Considering unidirectional wind profiles, mixing up to around 900mb, and possible precipitation helping to bring down some higher momentum air I think a 2-4hr period of warning criteria winds are quite possible over eastern IA and northern IL Thursday morning. Not quite like the GFS runs from a few days ago but still pretty nice. I'm hoping for stronger ticks as we get closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 00z RGEM is out for Wed. 4mb deeper than the NAM. RGEM did well last year in calling for a slightly stronger storm than some of the others had forecast. Wouldn't be surprised to see this thing come in even deeper on subsequent runs given the tremendous kinematics. GFS has ticked a little stronger tonight compared to the past several runs. NAM will probably catch up and come in deeper as well the next few runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 Not quite like the GFS runs from a few days ago but still pretty nice. I'm hoping for stronger ticks as we get closer. The main energy is just starting to come on shore, so maybe we'll see some additional upticks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 The GEM has also come in a few mb stronger than the last several runs. It'll be interesting to see if the Euro follows suit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 Even in November 1998, ORD had 40+ mph gusts from about 7 AM on the 10th to about 4 AM on the 11th.There's that event, and then Octobomb too. That had two periods of winds around or well over 40mph, which when combined added up to around 24hrs.So this event looks to have a higher ceiling length wise, but we'll see how it goes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 00z Euro also came in a few mb stronger compared to it's 12z. 983mb vs 985mb. Also shows 55-60kts similar to the GFS at 900mb atop the mixed layer. EDIT: kant tipe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IllinoisWedges Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 Small northward shift in D2 update. Broyles still at it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 Broyles dropped the ball on the day 2 outlook. What are you talking about? This one is much more on point compared to the previous outlooks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 Broyles dropped the ball on the day 2 outlook. No he didn't he actually wrote a good outlook, better than the previous ones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 What are you talking about? This one is much more on point compared to the previous outlooks. Just realized most of what we were talking about will be covered by the Day 3 outlook, nevermind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 Alot of people including me thought that a slight risk should have been introduced as far north as Southwest Wisconsin, he's being too cautious. Man talk about nitpicking...Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 Alot of people including me thought that a slight risk should have been introduced as far north as Southwest Wisconsin, he's being too cautious. You are rapidly approaching 5 ppd territory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 10, 2015 Author Share Posted November 10, 2015 What are you talking about? This one is much more on point compared to the previous outlooks. All you can do is lol at that post. I thought he wrote a pretty good outlook/discussion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxDanny Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 Just realized most of what we were talking about will be covered by the Day 3 outlook, nevermind. Here's a tip: read the thread before you post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 Just realized how dumb that previous post of mine sounded, deleted it. His write up is pretty great for the time period it covers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 By the way I always think this is James Spann facepalming in this emoticon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 For posterity the Day 2 text: DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK1259 AM CST TUE NOV 10 2015VALID 111200Z - 121200Z...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF SRN IA...MO ANDIL......THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE GREATPLAINS...MS VALLEY...ARKLATEX...OH VALLEY AND TN VALLEY OUTSIDE THEENHANCED RISK AREA......THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE GREATPLAINS...UPPER MIDWEST...MS VALLEY...LOWER MS VALLEY...OH VALLEY ANDTN VALLEY OUTSIDE THE SLIGHT RISK AREA......SUMMARY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE AREEXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND LOWER TO MID MISSOURIVALLEY LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. THE POTENTIALFOR WIND DAMAGE AND TORNADOES SHOULD INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOONACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REACHING THE OHIO VALLEY DURINGTHE EARLY EVENING. A MORE ISOLATED THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL...WINDDAMAGE AND TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOONACROSS THE ARKLATEX...OZARKS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY....CNTRL PLAINS/MID MS VALLEY/LOWER TO MID MO VALLEY/OH VALLEY...A VIGOROUS UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE QUICKLY EWD ACROSS SRNROCKIES TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS WEDNESDAYMORNING. AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO CLOSE OFF OVER THE CNTRLHIGH PLAINS AS AN IMPRESSIVE 90 TO 110 KT MID-LEVEL JET MOVESQUICKLY ENEWD ACROSS THE SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS. THE EXIT REGION OFTHE MID-LEVEL JET AND THE ASSOCIATED STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILLOVERSPREAD THE LOWER AND MID MO VALLEY. THIS WILL COINCIDE WITHDEVELOPMENT OF A POCKET OF INSTABILITY IN NE KS...FAR SE NEB...SWRNIA AND NW MO WHERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SHOULD TAKE PLACE DURINGTHE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD QUICKLYEXPAND IN COVERAGE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND MOVE EWD INTO THE MS ANDOH VALLEYS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.FORECAST SOUNDINGS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE ENHANCED THREATAREA FROM NRN MO INTO WRN IL SHOW SFC DEWPOINTS NEAR 60 F WITHMLCAPE NEAR 500 J/KG. 0-6 KM SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BE FROM 70 TO 85KT WITH VERY STRONG SPEED SHEAR FROM THE SFC TO 850 MB. THISENVIRONMENT COMBINED WITH A FAST EWD MOVEMENT OF STORMS SHOULD BEFAVORABLE FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH CELLS ALONG THE FRONT. ANENHANCED WIND DAMAGE THREAT SHOULD DEVELOP AS LARGER-SCALE LINESEGMENTS ORGANIZE. DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IN THE LOW-LEVELS WILL ALSOSUPPORT STORM ROTATION. DISCRETE CELLS THAT DEVELOP EARLY IN THEEVENT OR WITH CELLS THAT CAN REMAIN DISCRETE AHEAD OF THE FRONTSHOULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY A TORNADO THREAT. THE TORNADO THREAT ISEXPECTED TO BE GREATEST FROM SRN IA SWD INTO CNTRL MO AND EWD INTOSRN AND CNTRL IL JUST TO THE WEST OF A FOCUSED 55 TO 65 KT LOW-LEVELJET. A STRONG TORNADO OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THIS CORRIDOR....SRN PLAINS/ARKLATEX/LOWER MS VALLEY/TN VALLEY...AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE SRN PLAINS ONWEDNESDAY AS A LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE ARKLATEX ANDLOWER TO MID MS VALLEY. THIS WILL RESULT IN MOISTURE ADVECTIONDURING THE DAY ACROSS EAST TX...LA AND AR. IN ADDITION...SFC HEATINGSHOULD ENABLE INSTABILITY TO INCREASE AHEAD OF A FAST MOVING COLDFRONT. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY TAKE PLACEDURING THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE FRONT FROM AR SSWWD INTO EAST TX ANDNRN LA. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE EWD INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEYDURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.AFTERNOON FORECAST SOUNDINGS AHEAD OF THE FRONT AT LITTLE ROCK ANDSHREVEPORT SHOW MLCAPE OF 500 TO 1000 J/KG WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THEMID 60S TO NEAR 70 F. ALTHOUGH BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ARE FORECAST TOBE VEERED TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST...STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR ISFORECAST ALONG WITH SOME DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IN THE LOW-LEVELS. THISSHOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AS SEVERALLINE SEGMENTS ORGANIZE ALONG THE FRONT. IN ADDITION TO LINEARDEVELOPMENT...SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE ASSOCIATED WITH LARGE HAILAND WIND DAMAGE AND A FEW TORNADOES...BROYLES.. 11/10/2015 Sounds like if supercells DO develop, a small moderate risk could eventually be introduced. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 The northward shift Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 Here's a tip: read the thread before you post. Reading helps, and thinking before you post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 Broyles has made some questionable outlook calls for sure and still not a fan of his "forecast soundings for...show..." approach, but all in all a very reasonable depiction of the higher threat area based off the latest guidance. Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 Reading helps, and thinking before you post. Agreed, I didn't think about timings, I screwed up. Direct any hate mail to my inbox. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 Sounds like if supercells DO develop, a small moderate risk could eventually be introduced. IF we do eventually see a moderate risk, I think it would be for tornadoes and probably in a concentrated area. I'm not at all convinced there will be enough of a widespread wind damage threat to warrant a moderate risk. I could easily see this staying as an enhanced risk all the way through though and I'd probably lean toward that outcome at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 Agreed, I didn't think about timings, I screwed up. Direct any hate mail to my inbox. Just sit back, read more and post less. Learn the etiquette and flow, and then feel free to add to the discussion. Flying off with posts of minimal information, and/or completely erroneous information rub many posters (including myself) the wrong way. I am a winter guy, so I don't chat up too much in these severe setups, so I sit back and watch/learn. Do the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 IF we do eventually see a moderate risk, I think it would be for tornadoes and probably in a concentrated area. I'm not at all convinced there will be enough of a widespread wind damage threat to warrant a moderate risk. I could easily see this staying as an enhanced risk all the way through though and I'd probably lean toward that outcome at this point. I would agree. I think someone (Alek maybe) eluded to it, but the action zone may be the radar hole in NE Mo and W Il. I may make a trip to Decatur to visit my parents, and head east on 72 towards Jacksonville/Quincy to do some chasing depending on how conditions play out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 I would agree. I think someone (Alek maybe) eluded to it, but the action zone may be the radar hole in NE Mo and W Il. I may make a trip to Decatur to visit my parents, and head east on 72 towards Jacksonville/Quincy to do some chasing depending on how conditions play out. I mean, I could be wrong and perhaps we end up with a solid line that has a lot of damaging wind reports, but the NAM/4 km NAM with its more discrete looking activity gives me pause and makes me wonder if it will be more in the way of discrete cells/broken lines. Storm mode is definitely up in the air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxDanny Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 4 km NAM has been pretty adamant from the beginning about a primarily semi-discrete/discrete mode. Its 12 km counterpart and the Euro have generally been suggesting the same thing. I suppose this isn't surprising with such extreme deep layer shear present with vectors not parallel to the boundary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IllinoisWedges Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 Is it me, or does LOT not mention Wed: http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=LOT&issuedby=LOT&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1 **They added Wed.** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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