HillsdaleMIWeather Posted November 9, 2015 Share Posted November 9, 2015 Here is a good hypothetical representation of what the subforum wants for the Day 2 Outlook, knowing the SPC they will over do it or under do it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted November 9, 2015 Share Posted November 9, 2015 Sounds like ILX really likes the potential with this setup and latest models runs are looking good especially in NE MO Sent from my iPhone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted November 9, 2015 Share Posted November 9, 2015 Can any of the met's on here answer this for me: IWX has a slight risk for their Southwest Counties, and a Marginal for most of their Indiana/Ohio counties, and yet they didn't mention it at all in the AFD, HWO (which isn't even on the product listing, you have to did it up on IEMBot or NWR) and don't even have thunder mentioned at all. How does this work, because IWX is kinda known for doing stuff like this before event's, and then one happens and they get somewhat caught off guard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 9, 2015 Share Posted November 9, 2015 Can any of the met's on here answer this for me: IWX has a slight risk for their Southwest Counties, and a Marginal for most of their Indiana/Ohio counties, and yet they didn't mention it at all in the AFD, HWO (which isn't even on the product listing, you have to did it up on IEMBot or NWR) and don't even have thunder mentioned at all. How does this work, because IWX is kinda known for doing stuff like this before event's, and then one happens and they get somewhat caught off guard. Not sure what you are talking about, this was directly from their AFD: PRIMARY FOCUS IS ON DLAD TIMING WRT MIDWEEK SYSTEM WITH WELL FOCUSED MODEL CONSENSUS. INTENSE NRN CA CUTOFF ENERGY IN BASE OF SHARP WRN CONUS TROF TO SLIDE INTO 4 CORNERS REGION TUE NIGHT THEN BEGIN LIFTOUT THROUGH CNTL PLAINS ON WED. TRACK TAKES ON CCW ARC AS IT BECOMES NEG TILTED INTO SECONDARY NRN STREAM SYSTEM /PRESENTLY OVR GULF OF AK/ DIGS INTO NRN PLAINS/FAR SCNTL CAN. ALL BUT REMOVED POP MENTION SAVE FAR WRN CWA LATE WED AFTERNOON. ADDITIONALLY RAISE TEMPS ON WED WITH MORE OPTIMAL LOW LEVEL WAA. CONTD MENTION OF SLIGHT CHC TSRA ON FRINGE OF LLJ WING LIFTING RAPIDLY NNEWD ACRS NRN IL AT 00 UTC THU AND INTO SCNTL LOWER MICHIGAN BY 06 UTC. PRIMARY FOCUS FOR PROBABILISTIC MENTION OF TSRA IN 00-06 UTC TIMEFRAME WITH BEST COLOCATION OF DOWNWARD TRENDING MUCAPE AOB 400 J/KG AND LEADING/SERN EDGE OF INTENSE MID TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHT FALL CENTROID /200-250M PER 12 HRS/ ACROSS WRN/NWRN CWA. STRONG SFC BASE LAPSE RATES AIDING IN MOMENTUM XFER THU FOR ADVISORY LEVEL GUSTS LIKELY IN 30-40 KT RANGE CONTINUE TO APPEAR GOOD AND COVERED IN HWO. DRY SECONDARY DIGGING INTO UPPER GREAT LALES THU NIGHT/FRI FOR SMALL CHC MIXED SHRA/SHSN POTENTIAL DOWNWIND OF LK MI. THEREAFTER DRY AND MODERATING TREND INTO ERLY NEXT WEEK AMID HIGH BELTED WESTERLIES WITH NEXT SRN/SPLIT FLOW SYSTEM POSING THE NEXT RAFL POTENTIAL LATE DY8-DY9. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted November 9, 2015 Share Posted November 9, 2015 Hillsdale is awful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted November 9, 2015 Share Posted November 9, 2015 Forbes goes 4 for Iowa/northern mizzu and 2 to 3 for IL via his torcon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted November 9, 2015 Share Posted November 9, 2015 Not sure what you are talking about, this was directly from their AFD: PRIMARY FOCUS IS ON DLAD TIMING WRT MIDWEEK SYSTEM WITH WELL FOCUSED MODEL CONSENSUS. INTENSE NRN CA CUTOFF ENERGY IN BASE OF SHARP WRN CONUS TROF TO SLIDE INTO 4 CORNERS REGION TUE NIGHT THEN BEGIN LIFTOUT THROUGH CNTL PLAINS ON WED. TRACK TAKES ON CCW ARC AS IT BECOMES NEG TILTED INTO SECONDARY NRN STREAM SYSTEM /PRESENTLY OVR GULF OF AK/ DIGS INTO NRN PLAINS/FAR SCNTL CAN. ALL BUT REMOVED POP MENTION SAVE FAR WRN CWA LATE WED AFTERNOON. ADDITIONALLY RAISE TEMPS ON WED WITH MORE OPTIMAL LOW LEVEL WAA. CONTD MENTION OF SLIGHT CHC TSRA ON FRINGE OF LLJ WING LIFTING RAPIDLY NNEWD ACRS NRN IL AT 00 UTC THU AND INTO SCNTL LOWER MICHIGAN BY 06 UTC. PRIMARY FOCUS FOR PROBABILISTIC MENTION OF TSRA IN 00-06 UTC TIMEFRAME WITH BEST COLOCATION OF DOWNWARD TRENDING MUCAPE AOB 400 J/KG AND LEADING/SERN EDGE OF INTENSE MID TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHT FALL CENTROID /200-250M PER 12 HRS/ ACROSS WRN/NWRN CWA. STRONG SFC BASE LAPSE RATES AIDING IN MOMENTUM XFER THU FOR ADVISORY LEVEL GUSTS LIKELY IN 30-40 KT RANGE CONTINUE TO APPEAR GOOD AND COVERED IN HWO. DRY SECONDARY DIGGING INTO UPPER GREAT LALES THU NIGHT/FRI FOR SMALL CHC MIXED SHRA/SHSN POTENTIAL DOWNWIND OF LK MI. THEREAFTER DRY AND MODERATING TREND INTO ERLY NEXT WEEK AMID HIGH BELTED WESTERLIES WITH NEXT SRN/SPLIT FLOW SYSTEM POSING THE NEXT RAFL POTENTIAL LATE DY8-DY9. I meant more for the public, we all understand the AFD's but the public just hears/sees jargon. Hillsdale is awful You should come visit some time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
homedis Posted November 9, 2015 Share Posted November 9, 2015 I think the enhanced risk should stay south of I-80 and slight should hover around the Wisco and IL border. I'm still not sold on any severe this far north, but it is possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted November 9, 2015 Share Posted November 9, 2015 To clarify, I wasn't referring to the town but you as a poster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted November 9, 2015 Share Posted November 9, 2015 To clarify, I wasn't referring to the town but you as a posterlolSent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 9, 2015 Share Posted November 9, 2015 RGEM wind gust map suggesting 80-90 km/hr, or about 50-55 mph, on the front end in IL at 00z. Again though, we'll have to see if we can mix well enough to bring those higher winds aloft to the surface. The back end wind potential seems like a safer bet at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted November 9, 2015 Share Posted November 9, 2015 LMK has an interesting take Glad they pointed out the crap that gets drawn out too early. For us in ohio that stuff around 3-7z probably will be nothing more than blustery showers. And the blustery part being primarily from gradient winds.... Wondering how much potential can be realized this far east given continued poor moist sector being modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
homedis Posted November 9, 2015 Share Posted November 9, 2015 To clarify, I wasn't referring to the town but you as a poster I mean I wouldn't put it that way but I think Hillsdale needs to keep his personal emotions in check because I think that may be getting to him. I have personal experience with that and now I make sure to keep personal emotions out of my ideas and forecasting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 9, 2015 Share Posted November 9, 2015 This Put him on ignore if he's bothering you guys that much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 9, 2015 Share Posted November 9, 2015 I mean I wouldn't put it that way but I think Hillsdale needs to keep his personal emotions in check because I think that may be getting to him. I have personal experience with that and now I make sure to keep personal emotions out of my ideas and forecasting. Yeah, posting less and taking in the experience is always the best way to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
homedis Posted November 9, 2015 Share Posted November 9, 2015 Yeah, posting less and taking in the experience is always the best way to go. Yeah thats the point of this forum. I don't want HillsdaleMIWeather to be discouraged or want to stop following weather because we're telling him to not post unrealistic comments, it happens to all of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted November 9, 2015 Share Posted November 9, 2015 Every run has been increasing the upper level wind speeds on every model, advisory level winds for the subforum seem a safe bet. Also, apologies if my previous post annoyed anyone, lets try to stay on topic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted November 9, 2015 Share Posted November 9, 2015 What are the winds looking like for Toronto and southern Ontario in general? Warning criteria? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 What are the winds looking like for Toronto and southern Ontario in general? Warning criteria? Winds will reach Environment Canada's Wind Warning criteria. Sustained winds look like 30-40 for you with gusts upto 60. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 Not sure if this was posted or not, but here is NOAA's probs for the "outbreak" on Wednesday. Have to imagine we see the Enhanced probabilities expand north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 Will be interesting to see what the SPC does. Wouldn't mind a system like this come December and about 30° colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 Glad they pointed out the crap that gets drawn out too early. For us in ohio that stuff around 3-7z probably will be nothing more than blustery showers. And the blustery part being primarily from gradient winds.... Wondering how much potential can be realized this far east given continued poor moist sector being modeled. I'm not extremely enthused...I'd be hotter on the idea of the low wasn't including well before the front got to OH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 Glad they pointed out the crap that gets drawn out too early. For us in ohio that stuff around 3-7z probably will be nothing more than blustery showers. And the blustery part being primarily from gradient winds.... Wondering how much potential can be realized this far east given continued poor moist sector being modeled. I'm not extremely enthused...I'd be hotter on the idea of the low wasn't including well before the front got to OH. Yeah I've let go of the possibility that we could get some damaging showers. I'd feel better if I was back home near Cincinnati, but I knew that was gonna have to be a sacrifice for moving to SE Ohio. I'm looking forward to tracking some storms on the radar though. That can be fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 Yeah I've let go of the possibility that we could get some damaging showers. I'd feel better if I was back home near Cincinnati, but I knew that was gonna have to be a sacrifice for moving to SE Ohio. I'm looking forward to tracking some storms on the radar though. That can be fun. I'm in Cincinnati and I'm not all that impressed even here!Sent from my XT1060 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chase_stormz Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 Does anyone see some similaries with the 11/12/05 tornado event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 I'm in Cincinnati and I'm not all that impressed even here! Sent from my XT1060 Well when I say "feel better", I don't mean I'd feel good about the potential. I'd be pessimistic but thankful that I'm not further east (i.e., here), where it looks even worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 Does anyone see some similaries with the 11/12/05 tornado event? Yeah, somewhat. And I wouldn't be surprised to see a cluster of tornadoes somewhere out there with this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 Does anyone see some similaries with the 11/12/05 tornado event? To a degree: It has somewhat similar dynamics for you, but a different track to this system for the rest of the sub forum. I'd say you could have similar effects. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nje310 Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 To a degree: It has somewhat similar dynamics for you, but a different track to this system for the rest of the sub forum. I'd say you could have similar effects. So if you translate that 21z low position from 11/12/05 from near Sioux Falls to southwest Iowa, where the GFS/NAM project it to be this Wednesday at 21z, and use the same transformation on the central Iowa tornadoes of 11/12/05, you get the primary tornado risk in northeast Missouri/west central Illinois for this system? I've had very little time to look at this, so I have little time for more than a simple analog transformation based on your comparison to 11/12/05. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 The updraft helicity isn't bad for this time of year, either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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