A-L-E-K Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 https://codforecast.wordpress.com/2015/11/10/severe-weather-forecast-discussion-for-111115/ update your sig Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IllinoisWedges Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 LOT just issued a wind advisory for the entire CWA: http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=lot&wwa=wind%20advisory Also, does anyone think the plume of MUCAPE (on 4k and reg NAM) will help keep things going tomorrow evening in N Illinois? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 LOT just issued a wind advisory for the entire CWA: http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=lot&wwa=wind%20advisory Also, does anyone think the plume of MUCAPE (on 4k and reg NAM) will help keep things going tomorrow evening in N Illinois? i think things will be interesting west of 39 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 i think things will be interesting west of 39 Great write up Matt! I too think west of 39 has the best shot in N IL Alek....but with the various NAMs and NMM....a rogue strong cell could make into the area... Will have to see how moisture return looks in the morning...or how dirty it really ends up being. RGEM has temps popping into the mid upper 60s (which I know is properly a little high) in my area down here...we will see. My expectations locally are low for severe...but certainly not zero. Either way, the non storm winds should be kick arse Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 I agree with that alek said, tri state looks like a hot bed. Long range looks great. Let's continue this pattern of bombs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 The dual-front thing some of the high res models are spitting out is kinda interesting Also yeah, I'm bringing back the RIP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 15z plume DP mean at JOT getting pretty close to 55 now late Wednesday...although it might be lagging a bit behind the timing of convection into the area...either way...fwiw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 IWX didn't issue anything tonight, with good reasoning. They want to wait and see how upper level mixing will play out, as gusts off Lake Michigan to the east and the severe showers could be warning criteria. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 LOT appears more confident about Severe Weather on their Afternoon AFD in comparison to the morning one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 However it looks, tomorrow, into Thursday are going to be interesting. Got the camera ready just in case a good photo op should happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 For our Canadian friends: Very windy Thursday. Strong southwesterly winds are expected on Thursday with gusts to 70 to 80 km/h in most places. Near Lake Erie, wind gusts may approach the warning criteria of 90 km/h.Please monitor the latest forecasts and warnings from Environment Canada at www.weather.gc.ca. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 LOT appears more confident about Severe Weather on their Afternoon AFD in comparison to the morning one.Wouldn't say confident. Overall idea is similar to previous forecast in main threat probably being strong to damaging wind gusts, but I'd hate to rule out an isolated tornado within the CWA given the extreme wind shear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 Wouldn't say confident. Overall idea is similar to previous forecast in main threat probably being strong to damaging wind gusts, but I'd hate to rule out an isolated tornado within the CWA given the extreme wind shear. What happened in eastern lower MI with the previous event is a good example why it can't be ruled out. With strong to extreme low level shear, you never know. Though that event had better low level moisture than this one will in the LOT cwa. I noticed DVN saying that moisture return may be better than modeled. Haven't had a chance to look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 Still think if I was chasing I'd be heading out towards the cold core at the top of the arc. Probably somewhere in southwest Iowa. Would possibly hold up around I-35 near, or south of Des Moines depending how things were progressing. Probably gonna kick off pretty early similar to 11/17/13. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 With the cooler weather making shingles a bit more brittle, hours of sustained winds of 40-50+ will likely cause more damage to roofing than normal (or what would be expected during summer months). On the flip side, at least in the DKB area, all the trees are bare. As such, tree damage should be somewhat minimal. This duration of high winds coupled with full trees and ComEd's power network would have caused severe power outages. Still kicking around the idea of chasing, but storm motion may be so fast that it will not be worth it. Somebody in the subforum has a sig, "In Midwest, you don't chase storms, storms chase you." I'm not an experienced chaser, but I am an experienced spotter. With fast storm motions, I just try to get in the best position possible for an approaching storm and watch it as it blows by. It's worked for me on a couple of occasions, catching an EF-0 and and EF-1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 GFS still showing 50-55kts at 925mb Thursday morning over northern IL. Euro continues to look robust also, with 900mb winds in the 52-58kt range. The NAM continues to be relatively stingy with winds with a reduction of 5-10kts compared to the GFS/Euro. I see DVN went with a wind advisory and mentioned an upgrade to a high wind warning is possible. I probably would have went with a blanket high wind watch given the potential of this gradient wind event, but either way works. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 https://codforecast.wordpress.com/2015/11/10/severe-weather-forecast-discussion-for-111115/ Very nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 GFS still showing 50-55kts at 925mb Thursday morning over northern IL. Euro continues to look robust also, with 900mb winds in the 52-58kt range. The NAM continues to be relatively stingy with winds with a reduction of 5-10kts compared to the GFS/Euro. I see DVN went with a wind advisory and mentioned an upgrade to a high wind warning is possible. I probably would have went with a blanket high wind watch given the potential of this gradient wind event, but either way works. That's the exact reason every CWA east of Chicago and north of Dayton held off until morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoachLB Posted November 11, 2015 Share Posted November 11, 2015 THURSDAY AFTERNOON BEHIND THE FRONT THE SYNOPTIC SET UP SEEMS FAIRLY FAVORABLE FOR WINDY CONDITIONS WITH A WIND ADVISORY POSSIBLY NEEDED (ESP IN OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES). MOMENTUM TRANSFER ON THE GFS IS SHOWING WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 45 KTS POSSIBLE WHILE THE NAM IS SHOWING MORE OF 35 TO 40 KTS POSSIBLE. FOR NOW HAVE DONE A BLEND OF THE TWO MODELS. NWS Wilmington Ohio Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 11, 2015 Share Posted November 11, 2015 https://codforecast.wordpress.com/2015/11/10/severe-weather-forecast-discussion-for-111115/ Nice synopsis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 11, 2015 Share Posted November 11, 2015 GFS still showing 50-55kts at 925mb Thursday morning over northern IL. Euro continues to look robust also, with 900mb winds in the 52-58kt range. The NAM continues to be relatively stingy with winds with a reduction of 5-10kts compared to the GFS/Euro. I see DVN went with a wind advisory and mentioned an upgrade to a high wind warning is possible. I probably would have went with a blanket high wind watch given the potential of this gradient wind event, but either way works. 18z NAM is a bit weaker with the surface low so that may explain the difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted November 11, 2015 Share Posted November 11, 2015 Still think if I was chasing I'd be heading out towards the cold core at the top of the arc. Probably somewhere in southwest Iowa. Would possibly hold up around I-35 near, or south of Des Moines depending how things were progressing. Probably gonna kick off pretty early similar to 11/17/13. Like your general idea,I as well would go west DMX but just slightly north of west. I like an arc from Dallas, Guthrie and Shelby counties up through Ida, Calhoun and Webster including Boone county. Can't post maps as it is based on the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 11, 2015 Share Posted November 11, 2015 4km NAM has some 80 kt winds at 850 mb right out ahead of quasi-discrete/broken linear stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted November 11, 2015 Share Posted November 11, 2015 Local met Derick Fabert riding with everyone, individual super cells for the tri state area, will form into a squall line for points east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted November 11, 2015 Share Posted November 11, 2015 4km NAM has some 80 kt winds at 850 mb right out ahead of quasi-discrete/broken linear stuff. Untitled.png Nice Hoosier. Could be some good waves kicked up near LSD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 11, 2015 Share Posted November 11, 2015 Nice Hoosier. Could be some good waves kicked up near LSD. Going to be windy. Forecast sounding from the area shows an inversion around 925 mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted November 11, 2015 Share Posted November 11, 2015 GFS still showing 50-55kts at 925mb Thursday morning over northern IL. Euro continues to look robust also, with 900mb winds in the 52-58kt range. The NAM continues to be relatively stingy with winds with a reduction of 5-10kts compared to the GFS/Euro. I see DVN went with a wind advisory and mentioned an upgrade to a high wind warning is possible. I probably would have went with a blanket high wind watch given the potential of this gradient wind event, but either way works.Having worked today, DVN actually had a High Wind Watch outlined, but all surrounding WFOs, including us, preferred going the route of blanket wind advisory starting tomorrow evening and upgrading if need be for Thursday. They decided to go the same way to keep the WWA map well coordinated. I didn't work on winds today, but in discussions with other forecaster, we both agreed we would've wanted to have higher confidence to go with a watch. My gut feeling is we get fairly widespread higher end advisory criteria winds and possibly a few localized gusts to 55-60 mph on Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted November 11, 2015 Share Posted November 11, 2015 Having worked today, DVN actually had a High Wind Watch outlined, but all surrounding WFOs, including us, preferred going the route of blanket wind advisory starting tomorrow evening and upgrading if need be for Thursday. They decided to go the same way to keep the WWA map well coordinated. I didn't work on winds today, but in discussions with other forecaster, we both agreed we would've wanted to have higher confidence to go with a watch. My gut feeling is we get fairly widespread higher end advisory criteria winds and possibly a few localized gusts to 55-60 mph on Thursday. Is IWX planning on an advisory? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted November 11, 2015 Share Posted November 11, 2015 What happened in eastern lower MI with the previous event is a good example why it can't be ruled out. With strong to extreme low level shear, you never know. Though that event had better low level moisture than this one will in the LOT cwa. I noticed DVN saying that moisture return may be better than modeled. Haven't had a chance to look. Exactly, i just didn't feel comfortable not mentioning a tornado threat at all for the whole CWA. I think the Chicago metro is probably fine, but farther west and southwest, could see part of that area being in a tornado watch tomorrow evening. I was checking obs versus modeled dewpoints today, and at initialization the models were a bit high, but by the afternoon seemed to be tracking well. It is something to keep in mind, that such a dynamic storm could drive better moisture return than modeled in the narrow swath ahead of the front. On 11/17, not to compare them, but even though it was clear that we'd have warm temps and good moisture, the near term guidance was still underdone a bit with temps and dewpoints. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted November 11, 2015 Share Posted November 11, 2015 Is IWX planning on an advisory?I think they held off for now only because they're not expecting advisory criteria until early Thursday. Would be surprised if the midnight shift doesn't issue one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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