Hoosier Posted November 11, 2015 Share Posted November 11, 2015 RAP appears to have a decent handle on current dewpoints out west, though 60 degree dewpoints have made it farther north than it showed, with some 60 degree readings now into southeast NE/southwest IA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonbo Posted November 11, 2015 Share Posted November 11, 2015 1023am update has a large expansion of the 15% for hail. Marginal increase in the ENH area in Iowa. 5% TOR area seems a little larger but I don't have the 7am update in front of me to compare. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted November 11, 2015 Share Posted November 11, 2015 HRRR really cranks the winds later. Note: this is the experimental HRR on the ESRL site. The operational version (on CoD) is slightly less enthused on the winds Wow north central and central Illinois would be getting rocked, if that were to verify. 50-60MPH gusts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted November 11, 2015 Share Posted November 11, 2015 Wow north central and central Illinois would be getting rocked, if that were to verify. 50-60MPH gusts.That's in knots.So 58-69mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 11, 2015 Share Posted November 11, 2015 The main issue for areas in the eastern part of the slight risk later on is whether storms outrun the instability axis, which is being suggested by the models. There is a tongue of sfc based instability (gradually decreasing with time) that moves eastward but it looks like it lags behind. If they are more in sync, then a somewhat greater severe threat wouldn't be out of the question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 11, 2015 Author Share Posted November 11, 2015 Meanwhile in eastern CO (Burlington to be exact) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted November 11, 2015 Share Posted November 11, 2015 60/47 IMBY...using Clow airport a block away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted November 11, 2015 Share Posted November 11, 2015 New Tornado Watch till 6pm for S C IA and N MO Sent from my iPhone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonbo Posted November 11, 2015 Share Posted November 11, 2015 http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0534.html There we have it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 11, 2015 Share Posted November 11, 2015 RAP vs reality (click for larger) Here's what it has tonight at 3z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted November 11, 2015 Share Posted November 11, 2015 so we're doing marginally better than modeled, look like a solid late season event for IA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted November 11, 2015 Share Posted November 11, 2015 Mid-level lapse rates aren't actually that bad today. Just a lack of moisture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted November 11, 2015 Share Posted November 11, 2015 Not in the sub-forum, but the severe warned storm SE of Lincoln, NE is interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 11, 2015 Author Share Posted November 11, 2015 Not in the sub-forum, but the severe warned storm SE of Lincoln, NE is interesting. tornado warning now, nice low level rotation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted November 11, 2015 Share Posted November 11, 2015 Not sure if that is the one Nathan Moore is on...but he just had a close call with some ground scrapers 61/50 imby Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 11, 2015 Share Posted November 11, 2015 A lot of 40-50 mph gusts in eastern KS on the warm side, a preview of what we will see later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted November 11, 2015 Share Posted November 11, 2015 Hoosier, except potentially stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 11, 2015 Share Posted November 11, 2015 Forecast sounding from my area later tonight. I think something went wrong here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 11, 2015 Share Posted November 11, 2015 Hoosier, except potentially stronger. Well, we'll see. We'll have stronger winds just off the deck but we won't have daytime mixing to benefit us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted November 11, 2015 Share Posted November 11, 2015 Forecast sounding from my area later tonight. I think something went wrong here. 15_RAP_013_41.53,-87.24_skewt_ML.gif Leaving now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blue60007 Posted November 11, 2015 Share Posted November 11, 2015 Forecast sounding from my area later tonight. I think something went wrong here. 15_RAP_013_41.53,-87.24_skewt_ML.gif lol, enough buoyancy there to launch hail into orbit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted November 11, 2015 Share Posted November 11, 2015 Man, latest HRRR still looks impressive throughout the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted November 11, 2015 Share Posted November 11, 2015 Forecast sounding from my area later tonight. I think something went wrong here. 15_RAP_013_41.53,-87.24_skewt_ML.gif I dunno... seems pretty legit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted November 11, 2015 Share Posted November 11, 2015 Forecast sounding from my area later tonight. I think something went wrong here. 15_RAP_013_41.53,-87.24_skewt_ML.gif lol just get a squirrel to fart and you should have lift off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tim from Springfield (IL) Posted November 11, 2015 Share Posted November 11, 2015 Bad timing for SPI's weather radio station to go off the air--however, I did check a moment ago and it's back online: http://www.weather.gov/ilx/NWRoutage Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted November 11, 2015 Share Posted November 11, 2015 The 18z TOP sounding had 95 kt of 0-6 km shear. SGF has 78 kt 0-6 km shear and 41 kt 0-1 km shear. Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 11, 2015 Share Posted November 11, 2015 There go the cloud tops to the west/southwest. Dewpoint still under 50° here. Winds relatively light at 15mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 11, 2015 Share Posted November 11, 2015 Surface low down to 991 mb, pretty much on the Nebraska/Iowa border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted November 11, 2015 Share Posted November 11, 2015 New trough brings back up severe potential next week. But, that's for a different forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted November 11, 2015 Share Posted November 11, 2015 There go the cloud tops to the west/southwest. Dewpoint still under 50° here. Winds relatively light at 15mph. Sweet gravity waves too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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