Fergal Posted November 2, 2015 Share Posted November 2, 2015 It's starting to look a little ragged now as it enters the Gulf of Aden. Two ships just off the Somali coast are reporting 20 (Maersk Pittsburgh, every 3 hours) and 31 knots (BATFR19, hourly) at 0900Z. Both vessels are sailing eastwards towards the storm so keep an eye on those links above. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted November 2, 2015 Share Posted November 2, 2015 Chapala's structure is still decent, but it's gradually drying up as it tracks further into the gulf of Aden and pulls in an increasing amount of air from the surrounding desert. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GEOS5ftw Posted November 2, 2015 Share Posted November 2, 2015 GPM satellite just missed a direct overpass, but most of the banding still over water. Eastern side has definitely taken a hit from dry air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted November 2, 2015 Share Posted November 2, 2015 NASA image of Chapala Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted November 2, 2015 Share Posted November 2, 2015 I will coin the term 'raisin effect' to describe what's currently going up with Chapala. As the low level inflow is restricted and replaced by very dry continental air, the cyclone is drying up and the CDO is shrinking. Shear still looks pretty low, but the disruption of the positive feedback is weakening Chapala and the eye is shrinking and filling up. Winds might have a harder time to mix down, but I still think it will pack a punch at landfall, borderline cat 1/cat 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted November 2, 2015 Share Posted November 2, 2015 I will coin the term 'raisin effect' to describe what's currently going up with Chapala. As the low level inflow is restricted and replaced by very dry continental air, the cyclone is drying up and the CDO is shrinking. Shear still looks pretty low, but the disruption of the positive feedback is weakening Chapala and the eye is shrinking and filling up. Winds might have a harder time to mix down, but I still think it will pack a punch at landfall, borderline cat 1/cat 2. In any case, the major threat with Chapala is going to be with the heavy rain and flooding, which is pretty much a given at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted November 2, 2015 Share Posted November 2, 2015 In any case, the major threat with Chapala is going to be with the heavy rain and flooding, which is pretty much a given at this point. No doubt....8-10" along the track, plus some hot spots of over a foot, in places that get a 1/4 of that in a year will make for a very dangerous situation. Also, it will only take a small deviation to the NW of the remnant's current forecasted track to get to the most populous part of Yemen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted November 2, 2015 Share Posted November 2, 2015 Purportedly from Chapala, though it says Oman, which it cant be. Not sure if the phrase spoken in the video is arab, but if it is, then that would add credibility of it being Chapala, as I don't think many arab speaking countries get this kind of weather. It's a very recent video, and I haven't seen it elsewhere, and it's at night, and it's currently night time at Yemen. It could also be a severe weather event, taking into account that lightning is not that common in TCs. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_F-tX6ueKcQ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fergal Posted November 2, 2015 Share Posted November 2, 2015 I find it amazing how this storm has managed to thread the eye of a needle into the Gulf of Aden from so far out in the ocean! If only my golf drives were so straight! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted November 2, 2015 Share Posted November 2, 2015 FWIW, a couple of Twitter accounts that /seem/ to be from al-Mukalla. https://twitter.com/Alamoudi211/with_replies https://twitter.com/Ahmed_basharahi https://twitter.com/iishiema Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted November 2, 2015 Author Share Posted November 2, 2015 FWIW, a couple of Twitter accounts that /seem/ to be from al-Mukalla. https://twitter.com/Alamoudi211/with_replies https://twitter.com/Ahmed_basharahi https://twitter.com/iishiema Al-Qaeda dominates the city of Mukalla and there are no trained rescue teams . The wind died down, but flooding and mudslides may still be a major issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted November 2, 2015 Share Posted November 2, 2015 http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1256/004316502760195911/epdf This is the last actual hurricane that came down the Gulf of Aden that I could find -- 1885. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fergal Posted November 2, 2015 Share Posted November 2, 2015 http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1256/004316502760195911/epdf This is the last actual hurricane that came down the Gulf of Aden that I could find -- 1885. Thank you, a very interesting read. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted November 3, 2015 Share Posted November 3, 2015 http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1256/004316502760195911/epdf This is the last actual hurricane that came down the Gulf of Aden that I could find -- 1885. Nice find!!! Pretty cool that the 1885 storm was basically destroyed by the same dry air issues. Despite having some of the warmest watet temps in the world being surrounded by desert on 3 sides is just too much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted November 3, 2015 Share Posted November 3, 2015 A key difference between this storm and earlier storms is the time of year - after the monsoon, and not before. That does change things a little compared to May. I don't think there's been a storm like this in the second peak of the IO season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted November 3, 2015 Share Posted November 3, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fergal Posted November 3, 2015 Share Posted November 3, 2015 It briefly made landfall near Al Mukalla but has re-entered the sea again. WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 030900Z POSITION NEAR 14.0N 47.6E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (CHAPALA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 736 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF MASIRAH ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON A MID TO LOW-LEVEL 7NM EYE FEATURE THAT IS VISIBLE IN THE MSI ANIMATED LOOP. A 030303Z SSMIS IMAGE SHOWS THAT TC 04A WAS BRIEFLY OVER LAND NORTH OF THE MIJDAHAH REGION, HOWEVER SINCE THEN HAS TRACKED BACK INTO THE GULF OF ADEN. DUE TO THE BRIEF LAND INTERACTION AND SIGNIFICANT LOSS OF CONVECTION, THE INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 65 KNOTS. GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND LOW VWS PERSISTS, ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO DECAY SLOWLY. TC CHAPALA IS TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A STR ANCHORED IN THE GULF OF OMAN. EXPECT THE SYSTEM TO TRACK TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS AND TURNING POLEWARD BEYOND THAT THROUGH THE SHABWAH REGION AS IT ROUNDS THE STR. THE SYSTEM WILL DECAY RAPIDLY DUE TO LAND INTERACTION WITH THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS THROUGH TAU 24. NUMERICAL MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT, AND THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK LIES NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS LEADING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 030600Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 031500Z, 032100Z AND 040300Z.// Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted November 3, 2015 Share Posted November 3, 2015 Yeah, the low level center can be seen hugging the coast on visible. Are those two pics from Al Mukalla? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted November 3, 2015 Share Posted November 3, 2015 More here: If that's downtown, there's got to be a lot more damage in outskirts and villages. I can't imagine mud/stone huts do well in this sort of situation. And I also can't imagine that Yemeni drivers know what to do when they reach flowing water. We'll hear more about this in however many days it takes any kind of media to make it there. What do you do when there's no local government and no UN to do a casualty count, coordinate aid, etc? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted November 3, 2015 Share Posted November 3, 2015 Tons of flooding pics on twitter looks pretty bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fergal Posted November 3, 2015 Share Posted November 3, 2015 IMERG image of Chapala's rainfall, showing 500 mm totals over Socotra. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 3, 2015 Share Posted November 3, 2015 IMERG image of Chapala's rainfall, showing 500 mm totals over Socotra. The Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals for GPM or IMERG is used to make estimates of precipitation from a combination of passive microwave sensors, including the GMI microwave sensor on board the GPM satellite, and geostationary IR (infrared) data. This image shows IMERG rainfall estimates for the period 18:00 UTC 28 October to 08:30 UTC 3 November 2015 for Yemen, the Gulf of Aden and the surrounding region in association with Cyclone Chapala. IMERG shows rainfall amounts on the order of 5 to 15 inches (shown in yellow and dark red, respectively) over south central Yemen and along the coast to the right of where Chapala made landfall as indicated by the storm track (shown in white) while significant areas of eastern Yemen appear to have received at least 3 inches of rain (shown in green). The highest total over Yemen was 398 mm (~16 inches). Most of these totals are the equivalent of a year's worth or precipitation or more. So far at least 3 persons are reported to have died and 200 injured as a result of the storm on the island of Socotra located about 150 miles east of the Horn of Africa. IMERG rainfall totals for Socotra are between 12 (dark red) and 20 (shown in purple) inches of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.