Fergal Posted October 31, 2015 Share Posted October 31, 2015 The dry air is wrapping well around the storm now. I wonder if we'll see this one die a quick death well before current forecasts suggest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncforecaster89 Posted October 31, 2015 Share Posted October 31, 2015 The environment isn't looking too favorable for Chapala, right now. Won't be surprised if the dry air doesn't weaken it below hurricane intensity prior to landfall...but I'm too unfamiliar with this region to offer up a more educated guess. We shall see. Of course, it doesn't have too high a standard to exceed in order to become Yemen's most intense TC landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fergal Posted October 31, 2015 Share Posted October 31, 2015 The average annual rainfall for the eastern coastal plains of expected landfall is only around 3" or 75 mm. Whatever the actual state of Chamala at that stage, the rainfall could equal or exceed that value Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted October 31, 2015 Share Posted October 31, 2015 Shear is almost non existent at the moment and it will stay low until landfall. This means dry air will have a very difficult time to get to the core, until something disrupts it(land, most probably). So barring any ERC left, I expect either steady strength, or even some intensification up to landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncforecaster89 Posted October 31, 2015 Share Posted October 31, 2015 Shear is almost non existent at the moment and it will stay low until landfall. This means dry air will have a very difficult time to get to the core, until something disrupts it(land, most probably). So barring any ERC left, I expect either steady strength, or even some intensification up to landfall. Totally agree. My current expectation is that the combination of land interaction and a possible ERC will allow for the prospect of significant weakening due to dry air entrainment. You may also be right. Especially if an ERC doesn't occur too close to landfall and the shear remains low. Either way, it will be most interesting to see how all of this ultimately unfolds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncforecaster89 Posted October 31, 2015 Share Posted October 31, 2015 Latest JTWC advisory: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted October 31, 2015 Share Posted October 31, 2015 I can see Chapala going annular, the environment may somewhat favor it. No indications so far, just mentioning the somewhat enhanced potential of such development. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncforecaster89 Posted October 31, 2015 Share Posted October 31, 2015 It's definitely looking better with the eye once again becoming more discernible and an increase in the deeper convection surrounding the center. As a result, the intensity estimates have also slowly increased during the past 10 hours, following a significant downward trend during the previous 12 hours or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncforecaster89 Posted October 31, 2015 Share Posted October 31, 2015 Current oceanic conditions for Chapala: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncforecaster89 Posted October 31, 2015 Share Posted October 31, 2015 Lots of dry air right at the coast, but so far not an issue for Chapala, as it is in a very light shear environment with excellent outflow. Attached are a few pertinent maps focused on the atmospheric environment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted October 31, 2015 Share Posted October 31, 2015 This looks like it will affect the same region that was hit very hard by a much weaker cyclone in 2008. Its not entirely unpopulated - Al Mukalla has a population of ~500,000. Nasty part of the world - heartland of Islamic terror. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fergal Posted October 31, 2015 Share Posted October 31, 2015 Still 115 knots at 2100Z. 312100Z POSITION NEAR 13.7N 56.8E.TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (CHAPALA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 412 NMSOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MASIRAH ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A RESURGENCE OF CENTRAL CORE CONVECTIONSURROUNDING A 04-NM EYE, WHICH SUPPORTS THE CURRENT POSITION WITHHIGH CONFIDENCE. A 311453Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS ANELONGATED SYSTEM WITH SPIRAL BANDING WRAPPING INTO A 22-NM MICROWAVEEYE FEATURE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN HELD AT 115 KNOTS BASEDON A DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 115 KNOTS FROM PGTW ANDREFLECTS THE CURRENT STRUCTURE OF THE CYCLONE IN THE EIR LOOP. THECURRENT AND FORECASTED WIND RADII HAVE BEEN DECREASED BASED ON A311803Z ASCAT PASS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN MOSTLY FAVORABLEWITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND STRONG RADIAL OUTFLOW SUPPORTINGTHE CURRENT CONVECTION. HOWEVER, THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE LOOPCONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR WRAPPING INTO THE CIRCULATION.TC 04A IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP LAYEREDSUB-TROPICAL RIDGE. THE CYCLONE WILL CONTINUE TRACKING WESTWARD ANDMAKE LANDFALL OVER YEMEN NEAR TAU 48. THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLYWEAKEN AS DRY AIR CONTINUES TO OFFSET THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTALCONDITIONS. TC CHAPALA WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN AS IT INTERACTS WITH THERUGGED YEMENI TERRAIN, LEADING TO ITS COMPLETE DISSIPATION BY THEEND OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOODAGREEMENT WHICH PROVIDES HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST.MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 311800Z IS 30 FEET. NEXTWARNINGS AT 010300Z, 010900Z, 011500Z AND 012100Z.// Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted October 31, 2015 Share Posted October 31, 2015 There's been a notable increase in the strength of convection around the center and a contraction of the eye over the past 6 hours or so. It's a tiny pinhole eye at this point. I could be seeing things, but it would also seem, based on WV and IR, that there has been a slow increase in size since earlier today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fergal Posted October 31, 2015 Share Posted October 31, 2015 The landfall forecast has been oscillating east and west along the coast between Mukalla and the border through various forecasts. The exact final track will have a bearing on how quickly the storm dissipates, with a more northerly track allowing that extra area of sea near the border to giving a slight stay of execution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted October 31, 2015 Share Posted October 31, 2015 Latest GFS and Euro are in very good agreement, with a landfall just east of Al Mukalla, well west of JTWC's track above. That sea port population is around 300k. Al Mukalla was taken by Al Qaeda just earlier this year. I don't like the geographical location of Al Mukalla, it screams tragedy in the form of being buried by mudslides. Hopefully I'm wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted November 1, 2015 Share Posted November 1, 2015 Latest GFS and Euro are in very good agreement, with a landfall just east of Al Mukalla, well west of JTWC's track above. That sea port population is around 300k. Al Mukalla was taken by Al Qaeda just earlier this year. I don't like the geographical location of Al Mukalla, it screams tragedy in the form of being buried by mudslides. Hopefully I'm wrong. Makulla_from_Hadramaut.jpg If it's anything like the regolith we had in Bahrain and Saudi, then it's bound to be dry powdery chalk that doesn't absorb water very well. When it does, it does so slowly and turns into a kind of thick paste. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted November 1, 2015 Share Posted November 1, 2015 If it's anything like the regolith we had in Bahrain and Saudi, then it's bound to be dry powdery chalk that doesn't absorb water very well. When it does, it does so slowly and turns into a kind of thick paste. Then runoffs from the hills will make the lower lands a raging river...the whole city is bound by mountains in the east side and partially on the west side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted November 1, 2015 Share Posted November 1, 2015 Looking at the latest MW (which is pretty old, BTW), it looks like it went through a second ERC and appears to be restrengthening once again. 0z GFS shows a hit further west, once again, just west of Al Mukalla, in probably a very strong landfall there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted November 1, 2015 Share Posted November 1, 2015 I just saw an extended loop of a little more of 2 days of Chapala's sat imagery, and it's cool to see that both ERCs are almost exactly 24 hours long. It strengthens during the (local) day and weakens during the night. Oct 30 11:30z Oct 31 01:30z Oct 31 13:30z Nov 1 02:30z Nov 1 06:00z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted November 1, 2015 Share Posted November 1, 2015 And yes, csnavywx, it has grown with each cycle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted November 1, 2015 Share Posted November 1, 2015 In theory could it survive over that sea with the 32C sst? With dry land on both sides. Would be interesting to see it bring rain Will inland. How far can it last? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fergal Posted November 1, 2015 Share Posted November 1, 2015 The 85Ghz from 0343Z shows a possible ERC. In the last 2 hours the centre has drifted off north of the latest forecast track. It may wobble back on course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncforecaster89 Posted November 1, 2015 Share Posted November 1, 2015 The latest JTWC advisory has TC Chapala down to a strong category-three on the SSHWS. It remains in a relatively low shear environment and continues to exhibit an excellent outflow pattern. In addition, it's still traveling over waters of high OHC. That said, the atmospheric and oceanic conditions will gradually become less favorable as it draws ever closer to the coast of eastern Yemen. Specifically, the OHC will be decreasing and the vertical wind shear will likely be increasing beyond 24 hours. These factors, along with land interaction and dry air entrainment from the very arid climate, will combine to induce significant weakening prior to landfall. Regardless, it's possible, if not likely, that Chapala will still be able to retain category-one hurricane intensity upon landfall. If so, it will be the first known hurricane strength TC to ever make landfall in the country of Yemen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fergal Posted November 1, 2015 Share Posted November 1, 2015 A pain in the ass is that neither Yemen's Synops nor Metars are have been reporting the past few days. It would be nice to see what Socotra airport (OYSQ), located right on the north coast of the island, is receiving right now as it is the closest station to the storm, which, if latest satellite estimates are correct, has strengthened significantly in the past few hours (120 - 140 kts) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncforecaster89 Posted November 1, 2015 Share Posted November 1, 2015 A pain in the ass is that neither Yemen's Synops nor Metars are have been reporting the past few days. It would be nice to see what Socotra airport (OYSQ), located right on the north coast of the island, is receiving right now as it is the closest station to the storm, which, if latest satellite estimates are correct, has strengthened significantly in the past few hours (120 - 140 kts) tccapture (1).gif Yep...ADT estimates on the upswing the past three hours. Not too surprising given the aforementioned high OHC, low shear, and excellent outflow. Looks like the eye has become a little better defined, along with an increase in the deeper convection, during that time as well. May have another 12-24 hours of most favorable conditions. We'll have to see if Chapala takes full advantage of the them. Significant weakening will no doubt occur therafter, as noted above. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1900hurricane Posted November 1, 2015 Share Posted November 1, 2015 Looks like it has just finished eyewall replacement again. This eyewall configuration looks rather stable, so unless dry air gets ingested and disrupts the core, this might be the last eyewall replacement cycle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted November 1, 2015 Share Posted November 1, 2015 All sat estimates put it solidly back to cat 4. Eye is considerably bigger this morning and is trying to aquire a "truck tire" appearance. Hmmmm..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted November 1, 2015 Share Posted November 1, 2015 In theory could it survive over that sea with the 32C sst? With dry land on both sides. Would be interesting to see it bring rain Will inland. How far can it last? Inflow restriction will be the biggest issue since shear is minimal (and consistently lower than forecast). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fergal Posted November 1, 2015 Share Posted November 1, 2015 Radar from Salalah, Oman (due north of the centre around now) shows a rain band extending to around 100 NM from the coast a couple of hours ago. http://www.met.gov.om/opencms/export/sites/default/dgman/en/weather-chart/map-data/ Unfortunately the Yemen met service website is as useful as a chocolate teapot and does not have any current observations, though does have a warning out for Socotra. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fergal Posted November 1, 2015 Share Posted November 1, 2015 Perfect eyewall now on the latest 85 GHz at 1441Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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