USCG RS Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 The water vapor loop is quite impressive. If the models weren't so locked in, I might think this storm would make a direct hit on Hatteras. A question for those more experienced, is it more the strength of the ULL in North Georgia (lack of having a negative tilt) that will fail to capture the storm or is the position and strength of the ridge in the Atlantic the reason Joaquin will escape out to see? It's a combination of both. If the Ridge in the Atlantic is stronger (ie with Sandy the NAO was approx - 2) it would give the ULL enough time to get its act together to force a capture. Similarly, if the ULL was currently stronger, it would have a better shot at capturing despite the weaker ridging. That said, a strong hurricane like Joaquin tends to create it's own environment as well and right now it's just meandering, so time will tell. Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-N910A using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Thanks for the response. Always fun learning something new. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Joaquin has been the ugliest Cat 4 I've seen in a long time. Usually you can find at least one satellite product that makes a storm sexy, be it an extravagant IR color scheme, the first sunrise visible image, a well-timed MW pass... not so with Joaquin. That said, the system is making for some mighty impressive WV loops in concert with the trough of doom. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Pouring here...regardless it has been a good rain day for the drought areas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Would there have been a greater chance of a landfall if Joaquin was weaker? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheManWithNoFace Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Looks like some dry air to the north might start to wrap in. http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/sal/splitE/movies/splitE5new.html Northern erosion of the cloud shield seems to confirm this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Would there have been a greater chance of a landfall if Joaquin was weaker? If Joaquin weakens quickly it would be less likely to feel the weakness in the ridging and would be more likely to stall once near Bermuda. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Costal flooding while not horrible is an issue right now at my job in battery park Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tdp146 Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Classic nor easter conditions right now. Heavy rain and wind gusting into the 30s. Checked the bay since its high tide here now- some water in the streets for sure, but about standard for this kind of deal. I would go for seasonal transitions like this every year. Long hot summer right through September, then bang- nor' easters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted October 3, 2015 Share Posted October 3, 2015 Any reports out of the Bahamas? Some of those islands are taking a beating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 3, 2015 Share Posted October 3, 2015 Looks like Joaquin may have actually taken a recent South or Southeast wobble. Almost looks to be headed due East. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tdp146 Posted October 3, 2015 Share Posted October 3, 2015 I noticed the wording in NWS coastal flood products is now slightly different. Mentioning the water level above ground level. Those are changes that were made across the board after Sandy. LOCATIONS...COASTAL NEW YORK HARBOR AND ADJACENT AREAS OF WESTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND. * TIMING...MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AROUND THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE THROUGH SATURDAY. * IMPACTS...WATER LEVELS LESS THAN 3 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL IN MOST VULNERABLE LOW LYING AREAS. * TIDAL DEPARTURES...1 TO 2 FT ABOVE ASTRONOMICAL TIDE LEVELS THROUGH SATURDAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
masomenos Posted October 3, 2015 Share Posted October 3, 2015 Looked like Joaquin might have been able to have a brief bounce back in intensity after the erc last night, but it's looking pretty ragged right now. Hopefully dies a quick death before posing any threat to Bermuda. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 3, 2015 Share Posted October 3, 2015 Winds up to 155mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted October 3, 2015 Share Posted October 3, 2015 Woah I was right when i say it can briefly hit cat 5. It'll probably get there in the next few hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 3, 2015 Share Posted October 3, 2015 They found 167mph flight level winds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted October 3, 2015 Share Posted October 3, 2015 Woah I was right when i say it can briefly hit cat 5. It'll probably get there in the next few hours So this thing is still strengthening? Wow I thought it was actually getting weaker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted October 3, 2015 Share Posted October 3, 2015 So this thing is still strengthening? Wow I thought it was actually getting weaker. Yeah its up to 155 mph now. It may strengthen a bit more but then weaken as it continues NE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 3, 2015 Share Posted October 3, 2015 Lol GGEM. We get close enough to see the cirrus outflow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 3, 2015 Share Posted October 3, 2015 They went from 125 to 155 in one advisory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted October 3, 2015 Share Posted October 3, 2015 Lol GGEM. We get close enough to see the cirrus outflow. That model is atrocious Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted October 3, 2015 Share Posted October 3, 2015 Yeah its up to 155 mph now. It may strengthen a bit more but then weaken as it continues NE Crazy, Joaquin won't give up. The system that's over us now, when do you guys think it will begin to clear and maybe we'll see some sun? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted October 3, 2015 Share Posted October 3, 2015 Imagine the media hype if this thing was going to hit us tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 3, 2015 Share Posted October 3, 2015 Crazy, Joaquin won't give up. The system that's over us now, when do you guys think it will begin to clear and maybe we'll see some sun? Monday late Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted October 3, 2015 Share Posted October 3, 2015 Monday late Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted October 3, 2015 Share Posted October 3, 2015 Imagine the media hype if this thing was going to hit us tonightFrothing at the mouth Media Hype? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 3, 2015 Share Posted October 3, 2015 Amazing view of the trough pushing it away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe4alb Posted October 3, 2015 Share Posted October 3, 2015 walked outside to "that" smell. The cut wood smell I usually only experience after large storms. Gives me the chills. Last time was after Sandy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 3, 2015 Share Posted October 3, 2015 49 degrees here with sheet drizzle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 3, 2015 Author Share Posted October 3, 2015 Pretty interesting that the 3 strongest hurricanes since 2012 all occurred in October between the East Coast to Bermuda. All three hurricanes happened during developing El Ninos. But the El Nino got shut down in the fall of 2012 after peaking early and not following through for the winter.Hopefully, the memorable winter storms following months later gets repeated this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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