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PSUBlizzicane2007

Tropical Storm Erika

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Second dropsonde in the 850 MB center has 1002 MB with a 17 knot splashdown wind. For those newer folks you generally take off 1 MB for every 10 knots. A 1000MB-1001MB system with the onboard radar showing the strong convection. I'm liking the new radar feed being broadcast by the plane this year. 

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000

URNT12 KWBC 270610

VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL052015

A. 27/05:39:42Z

B. 16 deg 31 min N

060 deg 38 min W

C. 850 mb 1468 m

D. 27 kt

E. 204 deg 49 nm

F. 294 deg 22 kt

G. 213 deg 37 nm

H. 1002 mb

I. 19 C / 1540 m

J. 24 C / 1538 m

K. 18 C / NA

L. NA

M. NA

N. 1345 / 8

O. 1 / 3 nm

P. NOAA3 0505A ERIKA OB 05

MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND AND MAX FL WIND 42 KT 354 / 26 NM 05:50:40Z

CNTR DROPSONDE SFC WIND 155 / 17 KTS

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Every run some new solution.

Globals are garbage for now...

Erika is looking a lot better, but will likely track more southerly than expected due to convective alignment, making a Hispaniola interaction more likely. I'm starting to think the most likely scenario is a ragged tropical storm in Florida, like Ernesto if I remember correctly. We could see some decent intensification before Hispaniola though, maybe even to minimal hurricane strength

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

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Globals are garbage for now...

Erika is looking a lot better, but will likely track more southerly than expected due to convective alignment, making a Hispaniola interaction more likely. I'm starting to think the most likely scenario is a ragged tropical storm in Florida, like Ernesto if I remember correctly. We could see some decent intensification before Hispaniola though, maybe even to minimal hurricane strength

Sent from my iPhone

 

I'll dream big. lol

 

11949547_10153662952117009_5322050099845

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Product: NOAA Vortex Message (URNT12 KWBC)
Transmitted: 27th day of the month at 6:52Z
Agency: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)
Aircraft: Lockheed WP-3D Orion (Reg. Num. N43RF)
Storm Number & Year: 05 in 2015
Storm Name: Erika (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 5
Observation Number: 10
A. Time of Center Fix: 27th day of the month at 6:36:13Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 16°31'N 60°55'W (16.5167N 60.9167W)
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,468m (4,816ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 56kts (~ 64.4mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 8 nautical miles (9 statute miles) to the N (5°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 113° at 48kts (From the ESE at ~ 55.2mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 24 nautical miles (28 statute miles) to the NNE (21°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1004mb (29.65 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 18°C (64°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,523m (4,997ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 23°C (73°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,552m (5,092ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 17°C (63°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 850mb
O. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 2 nautical miles

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Product: NOAA Vortex Message (URNT12 KWBC)

Transmitted: 27th day of the month at 6:52Z

Agency: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)

Aircraft: Lockheed WP-3D Orion (Reg. Num. N43RF)

Storm Number & Year: 05 in 2015

Storm Name: Erika (flight in the North Atlantic basin)

Mission Number: 5

Observation Number: 10

A. Time of Center Fix: 27th day of the month at 6:36:13Z

B. Center Fix Coordinates: 16°31'N 60°55'W (16.5167N 60.9167W)

C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,468m (4,816ft) at 850mb

D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 56kts (~ 64.4mph)

E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 8 nautical miles (9 statute miles) to the N (5°) of center fix

F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 113° at 48kts (From the ESE at ~ 55.2mph)

G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 24 nautical miles (28 statute miles) to the NNE (21°) of center fix

H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1004mb (29.65 inHg)

I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 18°C (64°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,523m (4,997ft)

J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 23°C (73°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,552m (5,092ft)

K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 17°C (63°F)

K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available

L. Eye Character: Not Available

M. Eye Shape: Not Available

N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature

N. Fix Level: 850mb

O. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 1 nautical mile

O. Meteorological Accuracy: 2 nautical miles

 

 

Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...

IMPROVED RADAR PRESENTATION IN CENTER

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I think the LLC may be being drawn under that convection from the radar and recon center locations.  From those plots it will graze the northern part of Guadeloupe.  The forecast track had it just north of Barbuda. 

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It's not going to miss PR to the north. If there's no turn to a heading of at least 300 soon,  there'll be some Shredderola.

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keep in mind many of the models have the low bouncing around a bit before going N of PR.  trying to decipher the movement by watching the convection pop frame by frame will make you go nuts.  nearly every model puts erika N of PR in 24 hrs.

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The ECMWF and its ensembles have yet to nail down the exact path from day four onward, but have been very consistent in showing a pattern that would likely prevent Erika from curving out to sea. Since Erika, though still disorganized, is a bit deeper than some of the models forecast a day or more ago, it has the potential to become better organized after clearing Puerto Rico and Hispaniola. A system organizing earlier would likely move at least a tad slower from days two to four. By day five, the ECMWF suite shows ridging building in quickly behind a weak shortwave trough that cuts off. A slower-moving Erika, while potentially stronger and situated farther southeast (and thus more directly under the anticyclone, allowing more intensification than the 00Z deterministic ECMWF indicates), would be more susceptible to a turn, but may also allow the ridging to build back in. The pattern by days six and seven, while still uncertain, is consistent with the shorter-term evolution within five days and shows blocking heights over the Ohio Valley. Given all these factors, I'd say that even a stronger Erika, if it survives beyond 36 hours, may well pose a threat from South FL to Savannah. Please feel free to clarify whether I'm wrong.

 

(I will say, however, that the low-level ridging to the north of Erika continues to be a bit stronger than anticipated, thus forcing a dangerously close flirtation with Hispaniola down the line.)

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keep in mind many of the models have the low bouncing around a bit before going N of PR.  trying to decipher the movement by watching the convection pop frame by frame will make you go nuts.  nearly every model puts erika N of PR in 24 hrs.

Steering currents are pretty well established and, if any, shear is probably aiding in dragging it left of the forecasted track. IOW, I see no mechanism to move it/reform/bounce that far to the right to miss PR to the N.

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Based on the latest recon data, the surface center is so far south of the NHC forecast track and is clearly dislocated from the mid-level circulation...with a movement of 280°. Based on the data and the continuing vertical, especially easterly, shear and fast movement, I'm remaining confident that Erika will have an encounter with Hispaniola. The center will likely pass just south of Puerto Rico and over the eastern mountains of the Dominican Republic within another day. Such an outcome would either kill Erika or at most result in a weak, sheared tropical storm heading into South FL by day four, close to the ECMWF deterministic solution. I'd bet on death by Hispaniola for Erika.

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