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Hoosier

Winter 2015-16 Discussion

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I put no stock in it.

What force or atmospheric conditions are animals getting signals from?

 

It's evolution or survival of the fittest at it's most simplistic form.

 

Let's say there is some old wives tale that "When the furry mammal has extra long hair, the winter is going to be cold."

 

Now we have this scenario:

 

In late fall of the first year, there are 50% short hair and 50% long hair furry mammals. This is "normal" so people don't think much of the winter.

 

Ooop! The first winter is really cold so now half of the short hair furry mammals die from cold but all of the long hair ones survive.

 

Now there are twice as many long hair furry mammals as there are short hair furry mammals the next breeding season. With odds being what they are, the chances of long hair mating with long hair is much higher (poor frustrated short hair furry mammals ;-( ).

 

In the fall of the second year when all of the furry mammals are out collecting food for the coming winter, people notice that instead of the usual 50/50 mix of short hair and long hair furry mammals, there are instead 80% long hair furry mammals and only 20% short hair furry mammals due to the long hair breeding pairs creating long hair offspring.

 

Eureka! There are more long hair furry mammals than there are short hair furry mammals, so it must be going to be a cold winter this year!

 

Or is it? Repeat this scenario again due to another severe winter like we have had, and the effect becomes even more exaggerated.

 

As I said last time....these are lagging indicators, not predictive.

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Are we going to have a mid-long range type discussion thread like we have the last few winters? Seems like the upcoming weather pattern is finally interesting enough to start one if we are going to do that.

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Wow this nature signs thing really stirred up a lot of analysis. I have no idea what/why/how this and this and this means a mild winter is coming or this and this and this means a cold winter is coming. Its like the groundhog seeing its shadow (which is entirely dependent on whether its sunny or cloudy in Punxatawney, PA on Feb 2nd). These are centuries old traditions/wives tales/etc that have been used as indicators for the coming winter. I don't think any forecaster puts any stock into them. All I know is that every year in late summer and early Fall, a few certainties exist pertaining to the coming winter. The farmers almanac will come out patting itself on the back for its excellent forecast the year before, NOAA will have to edit the year to the present on their annual copy and paste of a warmer than normal winter forecast, and wooly worms, squirrel tails, astronomy signs, beaver huts, etc will be analyzed by those who put stock in them ;)

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Are we going to have a mid-long range type discussion thread like we have the last few winters? Seems like the upcoming weather pattern is finally interesting enough to start one if we are going to do that

I was wondering the same thing. It seems like some of it is put in the winter thread and some in the November thread.

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Are we going to have a mid-long range type discussion thread like we have the last few winters? Seems like the upcoming weather pattern is finally interesting enough to start one if we are going to do that.

Yes, if you'd like to do the honors of starting one that would be a good idea.

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Wow this nature signs thing really stirred up a lot of analysis. I have no idea what/why/how this and this and this means a mild winter is coming or this and this and this means a cold winter is coming. Its like the groundhog seeing its shadow (which is entirely dependent on whether its sunny or cloudy in Punxatawney, PA on Feb 2nd). These are centuries old traditions/wives tales/etc that have been used as indicators for the coming winter. I don't think any forecaster puts any stock into them. All I know is that every year in late summer and early Fall, a few certainties exist pertaining to the coming winter. The farmers almanac will come out patting itself on the back for its excellent forecast the year before, NOAA will have to edit the year to the present on their annual copy and paste of a warmer than normal winter forecast, and wooly worms, squirrel tails, astronomy signs, beaver huts, etc will be analyzed by those who put stock in them ;)

 

Because it's boring right now and we need something to talk about?  :violin:

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You did a good job explaining selection pressure, however selecting for a trait like hair length in a local population does not happen anywhere near that fast. 

 

My example was obviously very simplified as well as exaggerated.

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Imagine this same discussison playing out 60 years ago in a senator's office:

From

5.6 “OLD INDIAN WAYS” OF KNOWING THE WEATHER: WEATHER PREDICTIONS FOR THE WINTERS OF 1950-51 AND 1951-52

Randy A. Peppler *

University of Oklahoma, Norman, Oklahoma

https://ams.confex.com/ams/pdfpapers/143684.pdf

. INTRODUCTION

In September 1950, U.S. Senator Robert S. Kerr (D-Oklahoma) wrote to Indian leaders across the U.S. in order to “make some determination with regard to whether or not we are going to have an early winter and whether or not we may expect a hard winter.” Even though he had access to U.S. Weather Bureau predictions and other scientific data, Kerr and his Administrative Assistant, Ben Dwight, a Choctaw Indian and onetime Principal Chief of that Nation, wrote to Indian leaders that they had a “high regard for the old Indian ways of determining such things – because they are practical and have always been able to make some very accurate predictions.” A few responses were received (e.g., Fig. 1). Based on this response, from Roly Canard – the Principal Chief of the Creek Nation in Oklahoma – a follow-up letter-writing campaign was made in fall 1951 for the upcoming winter, producing more responses, especially from outside of Oklahoma

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Friend of mine works on local & indigenous knowledges and she notes this kind of stuff is really contentious and difficult for numerous of reasons. Put shortly, one of the issues at stake is there's always the risk that the persons -- usually outsiders -- doing conventional science are going to home straight in on a reductive judgment about whether the local knowledge has "scientific" value in this case that is to say I suppose, predictive value or skill.

If it does, then someone's probably going to go make money or a career, or formulate policy off of it, and not necessarily share the credit or benefit.

So ferinstance, Brazil has a bioresearch framework that requires companies and institutes doing studies on forest products for e.g. drug development -- kind of an outgrowth of ethnobotany -- share the benefit through various avenues. And they're always dragging Pfizer or whoever into court to make em pay.

A very prominent historical episode of this kind of thing would be quinine.

If it doesn't "work" then, well, it can get written off as a hilarious native or yokel farmer's almanac type primitive superstition; ha ha ha "spider webbs" etc.

In practice seasonal & climatic decision making processes involving nature signs like phenology turn out to be complex and involve a whole bunch of factors, including social, religious, and economic ones -- this is widely true, and not just for so-called traditional societies.

It also lends itself to derision from self-proclaimed disinterested observers who have prescriptive policies in hand. Think about what would go into being a consultant trying to convince a municipality to restrict new builds in a avalanche or landslide zone, or trying to get people to relocate out of floodplains and wildfire risk areas, and how easy it is to declare people to be irrational and stupid for not wanting to move right out of their burntrap mountain communities in Inferno Gulch, CA.

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About 3.5 months ago, WSI posted about a correlation between strong July blocking and DJF blocking. Of course, we saw the second strongest blocking on record this July. With December only 10 days away, I thought I'd see what we should expect for December, assuming the correlation exists. 

 

After some digging, I found the years that had top 10 strongest July blocks... and each of the following DJFs had a mean -NAO.

 










 

If you don't feel like clicking on each link, most Decembers featured rather strong blocking. The only exceptions are 1957 (strong +NAO), 1980 (east-based +NAO), and 1960 (moderate +NAO).

 

Average of all the years

7tPoKhg1AX.png

 

Keep in mind, WSI's correlation only focuses on the NAO.

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GFS and Euro ensembles have the death vortex showing up by day 10. Such a classic early winter-Nino look. Feels surreal to see this kind of pattern after spending so many months forecasting and tracking this Nino.  It's gonna be just as weird to watch it collapse.

 

Q3dU39h.png

IxF7Xxc.png

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GFS and Euro ensembles have the death vortex showing up by day 10. Such a classic early winter-Nino look. Feels surreal to see this kind of pattern after spending so many months forecasting and tracking this Nino.  It's gonna be just as weird to watch it collapse.

 

Q3dU39h.png

IxF7Xxc.png

 

 

 Yes, the dreaded El Nino is upon us! SSW may be our only hope.

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Even if December goes completely down the tubes (I'm not convinced it will even if it's warmer than average), at least many of us have gotten a system to hold us over).

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Even if December goes completely down the tubes (I'm not convinced it will even if it's warmer than average), at least many of us have gotten a system to hold us over).

Agree, especially to the bolded. Warmer than average does not mean no fun. This could simultaneously be one of the warmest AND snowiest Novembers on record for some locations in this region. Doesnt have a ring to it, does it lol?

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 Yes, the dreaded El Nino is upon us! SSW may be our only hope.

If the GOA low retrogrades as expected, then you might not even need a SSW to save the day. It'd certainly help though.

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Even if December goes completely down the tubes (I'm not convinced it will even if it's warmer than average), at least many of us have gotten a system to hold us over).

 

Yea right ,  :lol: c'mon man who do you think you're talking to here?   That's like taking a hit off a crack pipe and saying, "wow, I'm good for a couple months now".   

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MPX mentioned this morning that if the Thanksgiving system doesn't produce any snow, it will be only the 3rd time since 1884 that the Twin Cities will not have had measurable snow before December (1928 and 1963).

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Yea right ,  :lol: c'mon man who do you think you're talking to here?   That's like taking a hit off a crack pipe and saying, "wow, I'm good for a couple months now".   

 

 

I'm a fan of frontloaded winters but personally, I'm good for a few weeks.  Being out driving on Saturday when the roads got bad reminded me of how much I don't like driving in this stuff. 

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After some runs where it dialed back the warmth a bit, the recent runs of the CFS have gotten warmer again for December.  Approaching the end of the month time when it's usually more reliable.

 

 

post-14-0-07638100-1448311341_thumb.gif

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It's going to be a frustrating winter for the entire subforum. Fun winter for trolls and golf weather fans.

 

I'm possibly going to tow the trailer up to the trails that start around 48N in Ontario, run the north loops. It's about as far north as Atlanta is south -- way up there.

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It's going to be a frustrating winter for the entire subforum. Fun winter for trolls and golf weather fans.

I'm possibly going to tow the trailer up to the trails that start around 48N in Ontario, run the north loops. It's about as far north as Atlanta is south -- way up there.

I don't think you will have to go THAT far north. Sounds fun though.

I am very prepared for an up and down roller coaster winter. Think there will be plenty of fun times and plenty of frustrating times.

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If the GOA low retrogrades as expected, then you might not even need a SSW to save the day. It'd certainly help though.

 

Its not just the GOA low. Its the super charged Asian jet creating huge multiple  basin wide systems  in the Pacific.North Ameica flooded with pacific air when this occurs.and longer range models seem to have a handle on it

 

.. A strong -AO might interfere with the northern stream of the up coming split flow pattern and channel it into the US and not straight across  Canada.and then we would  have some cold air to work with.

  

  Have not read Cohen at AER yet today. Wonder if he is still optimistic about a stong SSW later this month.

 

  I hope so. Recent snow here in Madison makes me want MORE !

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Its not just the GOA low. Its the super charged Asian jet creating huge multiple  basin wide systems  in the Pacific.North Ameica flooded with pacific air when this occurs.and longer range models seem to have a handle on it

 

.. A strong -AO might interfere with the northern stream of the up coming split flow pattern and channel it into the US and not straight across  Canada.and then we would  have some cold air to work with.

  

  Have not read Cohen at AER yet today. Wonder if he is still optimistic about a stong SSW later this month.

 

  I hope so. Recent snow here in Madison makes me want MORE !

 

I know the cause and mechanics are different today, but December 2011 looks mighty similar. Warm Pacific air kept getting drawn into our continental air masses. Winter just took forever to get going with that setup.

 

Our cold forms over the Canadian tundra and sub tundra areas, just takes a zonal flow to cut this airflow off and contaminate our air mass with moist pacific air.

 

Once the rossby waves start tightening up and not meander as much, we should start seeing less intrusions of pacific air.

 

If any red tagger wants to confirm or dispute what I said, please do.

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I know the cause and mechanics are different today, but December 2011 looks mighty similar. Warm Pacific air kept getting drawn into our continental air masses. Winter just took forever to get going with that setup.

 

Our cold forms over the Canadian tundra and sub tundra areas, just takes a zonal flow to cut this airflow off and contaminate our air mass with moist pacific air.

 

Once the rossby waves start tightening up and not meander as much, we should start seeing less intrusions of pacific air.

 

If any red tagger wants to confirm or dispute what I said, please do.

 

   I will take what we have now over 11-12 At least now we expect to have Pacific systems in the southern stream entering CA and coming in our direction. So there is  some action just need a little cold air to go with it.

 

   I think the folks in CA have a right to be excited about this pattern.In 11-12 They had a ridge sit over them the whole winter.Pacific air came at us over the north end of that ridge.

 

 Have tried to blot out the memory of that winter!

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I still like to check out the old ecmwf site.  Running through the 500 maps each morning has been  entertaining this season.

 

Eventually this wacky pattern is going to yield some crazy fun for one or all of us...despite having to put up with mild temps mixed in.  HIstoric ice storm?   Blizzard raging in a sea warmth?   Bismark at 50 while Myrtle Beach gets a foot of snow?  At least it won't, (shouldn't be), boring.   

 

+8 850s almost to northern Canada.  

 

 

 

 

post-622-0-83439600-1448366378_thumb.jpg

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