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Winter 2015-16 Discussion


Hoosier
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Pretty awesome maps right here that organize all El Nino Types with Temp/Precip

 

12107130_918967164864656_872472752045069

 

ENSO-comparisons.png

 

 

Something's up with those charts.  Some of the years have different strength classifications on the temperature and precip maps...like 87-88 is shown as strong on the temperature map and moderate on the precip map.

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If y'all have some time, check out OHweather's outlook:

 

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/47089-my-2015-2016-winter-outlook/

Hey, thanks for the plug! It would've taken me a while to upload everything to a post in this thread (uploading it all once was enough).

 

Overall my forecast wouldn't be the best winter for the sub-forum (not at all surprising), but wouldn't be a complete torch all the way through. We shall see. Some of the lingering questions will hopefully start to become answered next month...does the Nino and forcing stay more central based (which may make a wall to wall torch less likely), do signs try to point to some -AO/NAO activity, etc.

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Hey, thanks for the plug! It would've taken me a while to upload everything to a post in this thread (uploading it all once was enough).

 

Overall my forecast wouldn't be the best winter for the sub-forum (not at all surprising), but wouldn't be a complete torch all the way through. We shall see. Some of the lingering questions will hopefully start to become answered next month...does the Nino and forcing stay more central based (which may make a wall to wall torch less likely), do signs try to point to some -AO/NAO activity, etc.

 

 

It was a tremendous effort on your part...very well thought out regardless of whether one agrees or disagrees with the conclusions.   

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Hey, thanks for the plug! It would've taken me a while to upload everything to a post in this thread (uploading it all once was enough).

 

Overall my forecast wouldn't be the best winter for the sub-forum (not at all surprising), but wouldn't be a complete torch all the way through. We shall see. Some of the lingering questions will hopefully start to become answered next month...does the Nino and forcing stay more central based (which may make a wall to wall torch less likely), do signs try to point to some -AO/NAO activity, etc.

 

With having later starts to winter this century, it is also safer to go with a warmer December. I look forward to hearing your thoughts as the cold-season progresses.

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This warm fall thing is kinda spooking me.  Very out of the ordinary for strong Ninos but the couple times something like it has occurred since the late 1890s, the winter went on to be colder than average.

 

Wish there were maps for 1877 and 1888 but I don't know where to find them.

 

 

post-14-0-61334900-1445535758_thumb.png

 

post-14-0-49541300-1445535767_thumb.png

 

 

 

 

post-14-0-18211800-1445535775_thumb.png

 

post-14-0-01338700-1445535785_thumb.png

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This warm fall thing is kinda spooking me.  Very out of the ordinary for strong Ninos but the couple times something like it has occurred since the late 1890s, the winter went on to be colder than average.

 

Wish there were maps for 1877 and 1888 but I don't know where to find them.

 

 

attachicon.gif1899fall.png

 

attachicon.gif1899winter.png

 

 

 

 

attachicon.gif1902fall.png

 

attachicon.gif1902winter.png

 

I have to agree that for this winter there is a unique set of conditions that we have not seen in any of our lifetimes.

 

Not much below normal at all in the country over the last 60 days.

 

60dTDeptUS.png

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I noticed the euro 10 day brings lower 70's back to Ohio....no sign of a cold transition in the medium range.   With us being in uncharted water wrt the warm fall anomalies in a super el nino, maybe there's another option no one seems to be talking about....

 

...warmth straight thru spring  :thumbsup:  (aka Josh's worst nightmare)

 

of course if that happens, Al Gore might throw his hat in the ring by March lol.

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This warm fall thing is kinda spooking me.  Very out of the ordinary for strong Ninos but the couple times something like it has occurred since the late 1890s, the winter went on to be colder than average.

 

Wish there were maps for 1877 and 1888 but I don't know where to find them.

 

 

attachicon.gif1899fall.png

 

attachicon.gif1899winter.png

 

 

 

 

attachicon.gif1902fall.png

 

attachicon.gif1902winter.png

It is very strange. A cold Fall in a STRONG Nino is near unanimous, while the winter signal itself is MUCH more mixed. Our region has been dominated by colder than normal weather since Feb 2013, and when it looked like that would continue into Fall (based on strong Nino signal alone) it turned mild. Its not as if weve been in a mild pattern, its been the polar opposite (pun intended). Its always funny to me when some try to dismiss the Fall signals but act like winter is just a guaranteed torch, when it could not be further from the truth. The "near guarantee" (aka Fall) has failed miserably...now onto the winter of the unknown.

 

I dont have maps, but at Detroit, Fall of 1877 was near normal temp-wise (+0.4F), the ONLY Fall of the 11 strong Ninos NOT below normal, then winter was mild, wet, and snowy. Fall of 1888 was very cold, and winter ended up being colder than normal, dry, and below normal snow (note it was a slightly mild Dec, mild Jan, and bitter cold Feb but winter still ended up colder than normal due to feb).

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I noticed the euro 10 day brings lower 70's back to Ohio....no sign of a cold transition in the medium range.   With us being in uncharted water wrt the warm fall anomalies in a super el nino, maybe there's another option no one seems to be talking about....

 

...warmth straight thru spring  :thumbsup:  (aka Josh's worst nightmare)

 

of course if that happens, Al Gore might throw his hat in the ring by March lol.

Oh, Ive seen the usual suspects talking about warmth straight through winter. Like I said, nothing will surprise me this winter. Plenty of signs pointing towards a good winter, plenty of signs hoisting red flags. Winter of the unknown. No one, and I mean NO ONE will be more disappointed in our region than the warmistas if this winter isnt warmer than normal.

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7 more weeks before panic would even enter my mind.

yup. Fall will be warmer than normal thanks to September. October has been just slightly warmer than normal, but it has already flurried. Been enjoying this month, as I do every year, because I LOVE Fall. Say it every year, falls on deaf ear, but Im not even in winter mode yet. My switch flips on Nov 1st, I go from Fall to snow mode, but even then, WAY to early for any panic.

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It is very strange. A cold Fall in a STRONG Nino is near unanimous, while the winter signal itself is MUCH more mixed. Our region has been dominated by colder than normal weather since Feb 2013, and when it looked like that would continue into Fall (based on strong Nino signal alone) it turned mild. Its not as if weve been in a mild pattern, its been the polar opposite (pun intended). Its always funny to me when some try to dismiss the Fall signals but act like winter is just a guaranteed torch, when it could not be further from the truth. The "near guarantee" (aka Fall) has failed miserably...now onto the winter of the unknown.

 

I dont have maps, but at Detroit, Fall of 1877 was near normal temp-wise (+0.4F), the ONLY Fall of the 11 strong Ninos NOT below normal, then winter was mild, wet, and snowy. Fall of 1888 was very cold, and winter ended up being colder than normal, dry, and below normal snow (note it was a slightly mild Dec, mild Jan, and bitter cold Feb but winter still ended up colder than normal due to feb).

 

You're right. There are no analogs for this years El Nino. We're in uncharted territories.

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it's looking like a tale of two very different Novembers setting up between the Novembers of the last two years and this one, (at least as it looks now).   Last mid November we had our first winter storm warning and flirt with single digit temperatures.   Long range models don't seem to be indicating anything close to that this year....granted things could change.

 

One of the most memorable warm Thanksgivings here in Columbus happened in either '98 or '99.  Can't recall which one, but we had all the windows open, bright sunshine, and I believe it was in the 60s during thanksgiving dinner.   

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it's looking like a tale of two very different Novembers setting up between the Novembers of the last two years and this one, (at least as it looks now).   Last mid November we had our first winter storm warning and flirt with single digit temperatures.   Long range models don't seem to be indicating anything close to that this year....granted things could change.

 

One of the most memorable warm Thanksgivings here in Columbus happened in either '98 or '99.  Can't recall which one, but we had all the windows open, bright sunshine, and I believe it was in the 60s during thanksgiving dinner.   

It was in 1998.  Reached at least the low 60s here too.  I remember that very well.  I was really into snow and cold then and I was miserable that day, lol.  

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It was in 1998.  Reached at least the low 60s here too.  I remember that very well.  I was really into snow and cold then and I was miserable that day, lol.  

 

I remember we reached record temps in the lower 70s in early December that year.  Think it was a few days in a row IIRC.  Of course less than a month later we got buried by the New Year blizzard of '99.

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Was just looking back to 1998 to see what I had here. Reached the mid 60s both in November and December. Had some lows in the 50s in early December which is really wild. I had 1.1" going into the New Years 99 Blizzard for the season and that was all in December. Didn't even come close to snowing in November.

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If this winter follows the pattern of this October, it would go along with many of the winter forecasts. Somewhat milder than normal, with the "cold fronts" dropping temps back to "normal levels". Leaning on the warm side of normal levels.

The first and third weekend of October had temps well below normal. I could see a roller coaster pattern like that. A monthly departure could end up like +1-2F but is a product of periods of well above normal and we'll below normal, as in departures some 15-20F off of normal, both ways.
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it's looking like a tale of two very different Novembers setting up between the Novembers of the last two years and this one, (at least as it looks now). Last mid November we had our first winter storm warning and flirt with single digit temperatures. Long range models don't seem to be indicating anything close to that this year....granted things could change.

One of the most memorable warm Thanksgivings here in Columbus happened in either '98 or '99. Can't recall which one, but we had all the windows open, bright sunshine, and I believe it was in the 60s during thanksgiving dinner.

Which would only continue the un-nino-like pattern. It isn't uncommon to have a few days in the 60s or even 70 in November though, even a cold November, but if it is frequently 60s that would be unusual.
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Pretty much. Good luck to anyone trying to pin down a prediction for this Winter. 

 

 

It will snow sometimes...how's that?  :P

 

One thing I'd say is that IF December comes in colder than average or only modestly warmer than average, it's going to greatly increase the chances for a colder than average winter.  I'm on the backloaded/step down winter wagon or whatever you want to call it, though I'm not sure it's a "clean" step down (i.e. each month colder than the previous).  

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It will snow sometimes...how's that?  :P

 

One thing I'd say is that IF December comes in colder than average or only modestly warmer than average, it's going to greatly increase the chances for a colder than average winter.  I'm on the backloaded/step down winter wagon or whatever you want to call it, though I'm not sure it's a "clean" step down (i.e. each month colder than the previous).  

 

Mark me down on the cold December, warm Jan/Feb bandwagon.

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