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June 20-21 and June 24-27 Heavy Rain/Severe Threats

Hoosier

By Hoosier,
in Lakes/Ohio Valley

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IWXwx

IWXwx

Posted
Posted

Michael Lewis at IWX may be going out on a limb, although not out of the realm of possibility:

 

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 PM EDT THU JUN 25 2015

THE LONG ADVERTISED DEEPENING OF THE GREAT LAKES TROF IS UNDERWAY
AND WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING SATURDAY...WITH A BRIEF REPREIVE ON SUNDAY
BEFORE YET ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS FORMS WITH A DEEPENING SURFACE
LOW ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER IS LOW WITH THESE SYTEMS...HOWEVER THE
THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL IS HIGH AND POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREADY 0.50
TO 0.75 INCHES OF RAIN MONDAY AND TUESDAY. UNFORTUNATELY THE AXIS OF
HEAVIEST RAINFALL APPEARS TO BE ALONG OUR SOUTHERN BORDER OF THE
CWA...IN THE SAME LOCATION THAT CONTINUES TO BE AFFECTED BY HIGH
WATERS.

AS THESE SYSTEMS SHIFT EASTWARD...WINDS WILL INCREASE AS THE SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AND WITH THE PROXIMITY OF THE MID LEVEL
VORTICIY ADVECTION CANNOT RULE OUT THE FORMATION OF COLD AIR
FUNNELS...ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA.

IN THE CYCLONIC, NORTHWESTERLY FLOW...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S.

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hawkeye_wx

hawkeye_wx

Posted
Posted

As much rain as we've had here in Cedar Rapids, there has been little if any river flooding because all the area rivers originate in northern Iowa and southern Minnesota, an area that has received much less rain this month.  The map shows rain totals drop off a cliff near highway 20 in Iowa.

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Hoosier

Hoosier

Posted
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Posted

Forecast soundings immediately N/W of the surface low on Saturday have 925 mb winds of 50-60 kts on the deeper solutions.  Mixing probably won't be good with clouds/precip but any heavier rain may be able to bring some of that down. 

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IWXwx

IWXwx

Posted
Posted

I believe that I caught a wall cloud this evening with a cell that went northeast of the city and passed near FWA.  I was walking with my wife and watching the storm when I noticed a distinct lowering. I ran back home and jumped in my truck and caught up with it near the town of Roanoke. It did have some slow rotation, so I followed it for several miles, ending south of the airport when it became obvious that nothing was going to drop. I flew back home and backed up my radar loop and caught this screen shot.

 

No pictures, but I will download my dash cam tomorrow and see if the rotation is visible on the video.

 

post-830-0-53175300-1435283337_thumb.png

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IMADreamer

IMADreamer

Posted
Posted

Another big rain this evening for us.  I've tallied 20 inches of rain in June so far.  The problem with that total is my rain gauge has over flowed twice so it's not accurate.  The Illinois River is two feet from being in our cabin and the new projections put it at rising two more feet.  My corn and beans are drowned out, my wheat took hail damage, and it's too muddy to harvest anyway.  This rain is getting old.  Thankfully the Mississippi River while it's high is not dangerously so.  If the levee breaks and we lose the farm to a flood for the second time in my life I'm done. 

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brohnhdon

brohnhdon

Posted
Posted

Oh, hires NAM... what's there not to love about your nonsense?

 

hYWHqSN.gif

mc4MW67.gif

 

Why discount this solution?? From the SPC:

 

DEEP SHEAR WILL BE STRONGEST ACROSS PARTS OF THE OHIO

VALLEY...PARTICULARLY NEAR/E OF THE SFC LOW -- I.E. INVOF THE

WARM/QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT. THIS MAY BE THE FOCUS FOR SOMEWHAT

GREATER SVR-TSTM POTENTIAL AND PERHAPS A NON-ZERO TORNADO

RISK...ESPECIALLY WHERE SFC WINDS REMAIN SOMEWHAT BACKED/ELY AMIDST

MODEST BUOYANCY. SUCH POTENTIAL COULD BE ENHANCED BY THE PROPENSITY

FOR LOW-LEVEL POLEWARD MASS FLUXES E OF THE SFC CYCLONE TO ENCOURAGE

NWD EXTENSION OF HIGHER THETA-E AIR INTO THE ZONE OF STRONGER DEEP

SHEAR. HOWEVER...THE POSITION OF THE EFFECTIVE FRONT WILL PLAY A

SUBSTANTIAL ROLE IN THE DELINEATION OF GREATER SVR-TSTM RISK...FOR

WHICH TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS FOR THE INCLUSION OF HIGHER

SVR-TSTM PROBABILITIES.

 

NSSL WRF has a few respectable cells along with warm front with >2500 J/kg MUCAPE. I wouldn't totally write off a locally enhanced threat with such a rapidly strengthening low...

 

uph3km21.png

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OHweather

OHweather

Posted
Posted

Apparently there were several funnels in Northern OH, and one may have touched down. OHweather may be able to contribute better to this then I can

Yes, there were several funnels. The one that generated the most pictures and may have touched down occurred in Wadsworth in southeastern Medina County.

 

 

This is the best video available of it. The funnel appears to be attached to a low hanging cloud (perhaps a small wall cloud) and appears to be very close if not potentially on the ground.

 

Here's a somewhat closer video:

 

https://twitter.com/inthe_fastlaine/status/614227896329207808

 

The person who took the longer video on Youtube said on Twitter that they believed that if the funnel touched down it did so in a field. Based on videos and other pictures, I'd be somewhat surprised if a very weak tornado didn't touch down...however I haven't heard of any damage so it may not end up in the books as one.

 

post-525-0-46821900-1435293654_thumb.png

 

As for the environment that allowed these funnels to happen, there was a weak boundary across northern Ohio with enhanced low level vorticity. A weak but persistent shower (circled on the mesoanalysis image) developed over Wadsworth just prior to 0z and persisted for about an hour...the bulk of the funnel cloud reports came from around 00:10-00:15z. My best guess is convergence near the shower may have enhanced the ambient vorticity on a micro-scale level and the updraft with the shower, which didn't move, while fairly weak was just enough to stretch this vorticity into a funnel cloud/possible weak tornado. Judging by the video, if there was indeed some sort of touchdown it would have been a very low end tornado with winds perhaps not even exceeding 60MPH. It may have been more interesting if there was more low level CAPE to help stretch the vorticity more. Considering these funnels seemed to be caused by weak updrafts stretching low level vorticity I wouldn't call them cold air funnels, it seems like a process more analogous to landspout formation in my opinion.

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Hoosier

Hoosier

Posted
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Still a huge spread in model qpf here, which is to be expected I guess with convection involved.  Anything from under 1" on the NAM to about 6" on the RGEM.  Probably some sort of compromise is the way to go but I really don't know how much, which way.  Decent amount of variance in how quickly the surface low deepens but if the more aggressive solutions pan out, I'd have to say it would go down as one of the weirder systems at this time of year that I can remember tracking on the models/weather boards in 15+ years.

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Hoosier

Hoosier

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Posted 




DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK    



NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  



1250 AM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015  



  



VALID 261200Z - 271200Z  



  



...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO  



TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY INTO CENTRAL  



APPALACHIANS...  



  



...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SURROUNDING AREAS OF   



THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS...THE CAROLINA AND VIRGINIA  



PIEDMONT...OZARK PLATEAU AND ADJACENT SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS...  



  



...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS AS FAR SOUTH AND WEST AS PARTS  



OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...AND PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO  



SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA...  



   



..SUMMARY  



  



SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR LIKELY LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT  



ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.  



STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS  



THE PIEDMONT OF THE CAROLINAS AND VIRGINIA...AS WELL AS ACROSS PARTS  



OF THE OZARK PLATEAU AND ADJACENT SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS.  



   



..SYNOPSIS  



  



FURTHER AMPLIFICATION OF THE LARGE-SCALE FLOW ACROSS NORTH AMERICA  



APPEARS LIKELY DURING THIS PERIOD.  TO THE NORTH OF A PROMINENT  



SUBTROPICAL HIGH CENTERED OVER THE GREAT BASIN...RIDGING IS FORECAST  



TO BUILD ALONG AN AXIS EXTENDING NORTHWARD ACROSS AND TO THE LEE OF  



THE CANADIAN ROCKIES.  DOWNSTREAM...MODELS INDICATE THAT A DIGGING  



SHORT WAVE IMPULSE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE EVOLUTION OF A SIGNIFICANT  



UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH THE APPALACHIANS.  



THIS APPEARS LIKELY TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY THE INITIATION OF  



SIGNIFICANT LOW/MID-LEVEL CYCLOGENESIS ALONG A CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED  



FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY.  



  



INITIALLY SLOW MOVING OR QUASI-STATIONARY FROM THE MID ATLANTIC  



COAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...THE FRONTAL ZONE IS EXPECTED TO  



EVENTUALLY ADVANCE SOUTHWARD THROUGH MUCH OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL  



PLAINS...OZARK PLATEAU AND LOWER OHIO VALLEY....WHILE PERHAPS  



ADVANCING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC COAST REGION BY LATE  



TONIGHT.  ALTHOUGH THE EASTWARD ADVECTION OF ELEVATED MIXED LAYER  



AIR FROM THE PLATEAU REGION IS BECOMING DISRUPTED...SEASONABLY HIGH  



MOISTURE CONTENT AIR ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL ZONE IS STILL  



EXPECTED TO BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT MODERATE TO LARGE CAPE WITH  



DAYTIME HEATING.  IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS  



DESTABILIZATION...CONSIDERABLE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...INCLUDING THE  



RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...IS EXPECTED TODAY FROM PORTIONS OF  



THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE OZARK PLATEAU AND LOWER OHIO  



VALLEY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.  



  



ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE...AIDED BY FORCING  



ALONG THE SEA BREEZES ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF  



COAST...AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...AND OROGRAPHIC FORCING ACROSS  



THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA.  A  



FEW THUNDERSTORMS ALSO APPEAR POSSIBLE NEAR THE SIERRA NEVADA INTO  



THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SOUTHERN CASCADES...ON THE PERIPHERY OF  



THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...DOWNSTREAM OF WEAK UPPER TROUGHING MIGRATING  



NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE SUBTROPICAL EASTERN PACIFIC.  



   



..LOWER OHIO VALLEY/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS  



  



ALTHOUGH MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY NOT BE PARTICULARLY  



STEEP...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO STILL BE SUFFICIENT TO  



SUPPORT MIXED LAYER CAPE OF 2000-3000+ J/KG...PARTICULARLY WITH  



DAYTIME HEATING ALONG/SOUTH OF THE STALLED CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW  



ENHANCED FRONTAL ZONE.  THIS SEEMS MOST LIKELY TO EXTEND IN ROUGH  



EAST-WEST FASHION ACROSS NORTHERN/CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND ADJACENT  



AREAS OF THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.  



  



MODEL OUTPUT DOES EXHIBIT VARIABILITY CONCERNING THE TIMING OF THE  



MORE RAPID FRONTAL WAVE DEVELOPMENT...AND ASSOCIATED STRENGTHENING  



OF LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC WIND FIELDS...WHICH WILL HAVE A  



CONSIDERABLE IMPACT ON CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL.  THE MORE SUBSTANTIVE  



STRENGTHENING OF FORCING AND FLOW MAY NOT OCCUR UNTIL AROUND 27/00Z  



OR LATER.  BUT THERE DOES APPEAR CONSIDERABLE POTENTIAL FOR LATE  



AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TO CONSOLIDATE AND EVOLVE INTO AN  



EXTENSIVE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM...LIKELY PROPAGATING EASTWARD  



ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE DURING THE EVENING INTO OVERNIGHT HOURS  



ACCOMPANIED BY THE RISK FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.  THE CONVECTIVE  



SYSTEM MAY BE PRECEDED BY DISCRETE STORM DEVELOPMENT TRACKING  



EASTWARD ALONG THE FRONT...WITH THE RISK FOR LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY  



SEVERE WIND GUSTS.  A COUPLE OF TORNADOES MAY ALSO BE  



POSSIBLE...EVEN IF THE MORE SUBSTANTIVE STRENGTHENING OF  



SOUTHWESTERLY 850 MB FLOW DOES NOT OCCUR UNTIL LATER THIS EVENING OR  



OVERNIGHT.  







			
		


		

		
	


	

	





	
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