Cyclone-68 Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 How does the GFDL usually perform for these storms? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 How does the GFDL usually perform for these storms? It's been a disaster lately, so bad the solution has been thrown-out of consensus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 The GFDL has not been a complete disaster, it caught onto the intensification of Danny but the HWRF was the first to catch Danny's RI. EURO and GFS were disasters with that hurricane. Also you can put the whole Global model suite into that category with Danny. Also they have been all over the place recently with Erika showing millions of different combinations of solutions. So no model has a direct ability to see the future yet. Maybe not ever, but I would rely more so than not on the GFDL on max intensity potentials and Erika has that with a large upper level anticyclone present over the Bahamas and dying shear around Erika presently I think models have a bad idea with the shear currently around Erika, I don't think its as strong given the outflow pattern around her now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 GFDL is an outlier to say the least I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 I think so too, but it has come further west with time. Plus it appears the last visible shots showed Erika moving northwestward now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 I think the idea is that it goes over at least eastern Hispaniola. After that it reintisifies. The extended GFS is LOL. Throw-up-in-mouth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 Throw-up-in-mouth. Nah, it could skirt it with a center that is not very developed and then fire up over Bahamas. I'm not suggesting following the spine of mtns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 Nah, it could skirt it with a center that is not very developed and then fire up over Bahamas. I'm not suggesting following the spine of mtns.Those mountains are almost double the height of mt Washington.I agree a quick skirt over the NE tip isn't curtians. But a trek down the spine and it's over. I'm going back down to 30% chance of complete dissipation from 50% earlier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted August 28, 2015 Author Share Posted August 28, 2015 Ahh ...the prolonged silence as Erika baffles everyone. STILL not a real discernable turn north in my estimation. All the models have adjusted west and weaker due to more land interactions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 Meh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 Meh. This system sucks, and will suck. It was apparent things were trending in this manner for the past couple of days, but most tried to turn a blind eye to the empirical onslaught of ennui. I wish that island would float away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 This system sucks, and will suck. It was apparent things were trending in this manner for the past couple of days, but most tried to turn a blind eye to the empirical onslaught of ennui. I wish that island would float away. It had a chance if it didn't keep heading west. But right now, looks rather pedestrian. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 It had a chance if it didn't keep heading west. But right now, looks rather pedestrian. lol the GFDL needs to go away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 lol the GFDL needs to go away Should call it GDFL. God Dam FaiL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 It had a chance if it didn't keep heading west. But right now, looks rather pedestrian. At this point, I am hoping it trucks south of Hispanola and goes through the Yucatan channel. I don't think that is out of the question.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 Should call it GDFL. God Dam FaiL. It's always been a northeastern outlier since it's inception. HWRF could pull a 920mb cat 4-5 cane out of an open wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 The main thread is as listless as the system itself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 The main thread is as listless as the system itself. Atleast with Erika's possible demise the cocka-roaches have fled, frivolous pitch by pitch comments have been squelched. Surprised the main thread was not moderated. Well down here it still has to be watched closely. In some unlikely event the MLV stays intact emerges N of HISP the dis-organized blob can intensify. The water temperatures are in nitro-degree range. Time to start building an Ark... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 Atleast with Erika's possible demise the cocka-roaches have fled, frivolous pitch by pitch comments have been squelched. Surprised the main thread was not moderated. Well down here it still has to be watched closely. In some unlikely event the MLV stays intact emerges N of HISP the dis-organized blob can intensify. The water temperatures are in nitro-degree range. Time to start building an Ark... drought cancel, its a good water supply storm AMOUT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 GOM is hostile, too I guess. Next.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 Haven't seen radar or recon reporting, but at this hour? hi res vis imagery exposes what looks more to be just a potent open wave at this point. Which is funny in way because it was the simmering concern that the islands of PR and H would be inhibitors ... but it might just be shear stress all along. In any case, it's just difficult to discern much of any closed circulation with this thing for the time being. But then again, as they mentioned in the 11pm last night ( haven't seen any since and judging by the integrity of it, no need to - ha) it's open organization probably means it manufacturing multiple small gyres. A couple of them were indeed seen pseudo -ejected over the last couple of days. It's just that this morning I can't even see those - maaaybe a weak one just S of Hisp. with like zippo cumulus. I'm actually getting more impressed with the wave about to leave Africa... It maintained deep convection through two diurnal cycles, and has clear suggestion of closed circulation prior to even leaving the continent. Maybe worth watching, as some of the models did have additional spins behind Erican't Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 GOM is hostile, too I guess. Next.... Ha haa... nice. yeah... seen better prospects despite the hoopla the models were previously seelin' - no doubt. Look east though... For the general reader: keep in mind that September is the bigger part of the seasonal bell-curve in frequency. The apex of the frequency curve lands on ...Sept 12 I think ? anyway, it's still just barely too early - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 Ha haa... nice. yeah... seen better prospects despite the hoopla the models were previously seelin' - no doubt. Look east though... For the general reader: keep in mind that September is the bigger part of the seasonal bell-curve in frequency. The apex of the frequency curve lands on ...Sept 12 I think ? anyway, it's still just barely too early - I'm glad I opted to never touch this by way of the social media medium. I think it's actually 9/11, but it's trivial...we get the idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 The eastern gulf appears decent after the next day or two. The best chance of anything decent at this point may be keys to n florida. Otherwise big rain maker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 Right - TPC now has the next invest still ON the African continent - thought so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 The atmosphere across the tropical Atlantic during strong el nino seasons has quite the proclivity to engineer boring. That is the issue at hand...it's almost akin to trying to BS your way to a KU in the absence of blocking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 The atmosphere across the tropical Atlantic during strong el nino seasons has quite the proclivity to engineer boring. That is the issue at hand...it's almost akin to trying to BS your way to a KU in the absence of blocking. The last few years of this amo phase has been quite boring el nino or not. Not to mention the lack of strong us landfills since katrina. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 The atmosphere across the tropical Atlantic during strong el nino seasons has quite the proclivity to engineer boring. That is the issue at hand...it's almost akin to trying to BS your way to a KU in the absence of blocking. I endorse this wholeheartedly. The field of scientific advancement (tropics) in the models has improved albeit slightly. In general it's far easier to foresee a KU compared to a Wilma bottoming out or a Felix doing a perpetual loop. There is always something to be learned and studied, fly in the ointment ever present. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 I'm glad I opted to never touch this by way of the social media medium. I think it's actually 9/11, but it's trivial...we get the idea. Not that it matters like you said, but I remember years back seeing a graphic on the weather channel of September 10th being the peak of the Hurricane season. But perhaps I'm wrong? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 The last few years of this amo phase has been quite boring el nino or not. Not to mention the lack of strong us landfills since katrina. Yep...which is why I have grown tropically rusty. Nothing has interested me in years. A major landfall this year is about as likely as a KU in 2012. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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