Allsnow Posted June 18, 2015 Share Posted June 18, 2015 Now sheet drizzle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 18, 2015 Share Posted June 18, 2015 Clouds breaking into WNJ Might have helped if i was looking at the current loop and not the one from yesterday. Socked in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 18, 2015 Share Posted June 18, 2015 Might have helped if i was looking at the current loop and not the one from yesterday. Socked in. Some late day breaks in clouds A balmy 67 degrees here.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted June 18, 2015 Share Posted June 18, 2015 Now sheet drizzle Yeah, miserable day for late June. 65F here and misting. Flash-backs of June 2009. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 18, 2015 Share Posted June 18, 2015 Current projected rains from Bill Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 18, 2015 Share Posted June 18, 2015 Bill looks less and less impressive every model run-quicker and less QPF overall... Your negativity is really causing a lack of judgement lately bro. The Euro showed a very wet Sunday, although things probably clear up around dinner time. All that's really been happening is that models are bringing it in faster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 18, 2015 Share Posted June 18, 2015 The 12Z Euro has heavy overrunning rains with Bill and a cool looking 10 mb pressure drop once it gets off the Jersey Shore and heads OTS south of Cape Cod. This run is a Euro version of Danny 1997 lite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted June 18, 2015 Share Posted June 18, 2015 Warm front just passed thru here. I think storms will be shut down north of Central NJ for today/tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted June 18, 2015 Share Posted June 18, 2015 The 12Z Euro has heavy overrunning rains with Bill and a cool looking 10 mb pressure drop once it gets off the Jersey Shore and heads OTS south of Cape Cod. This run is a Euro version of Danny 1997 lite. Warmer water than June 2012 sitting offshore. Kind of makes sense in the grand scheme of things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted June 18, 2015 Share Posted June 18, 2015 Your negativity is really causing a lack of judgement lately bro. The Euro showed a very wet Sunday, although things probably clear up around dinner time. All that's really been happening is that models are bringing it in faster. I'm being positive-I want it in and out given that's its a weekend and I'll be at the S NJ shore starting Saturday. Earlier runs had a much stronger system, hence it was windier and wetter than current runs show-looks like it's in and out in 6-10 hours time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 18, 2015 Share Posted June 18, 2015 The Euro digs a deep trough into the lakes days 7-10 ushering in a period of -10 to -15 daily departures. Verbatim we struggle to break 70 for a high on June 27th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted June 18, 2015 Share Posted June 18, 2015 The Euro digs a deep trough into the lakes days 7-10 ushering in a period of -10 to -15 daily departures. Verbatim we struggle to break 70 for a high on June 27th. Shades of last year and/or Jun '09. Those spiking the ball that this summer was going to be warmer might be in big trouble. no sign of anything hot outside a day or two here and there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted June 18, 2015 Share Posted June 18, 2015 So far just 66 for a high...on the northern edge of the rain earlier with only 0.03". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 18, 2015 Share Posted June 18, 2015 Mt. Holly SUN...A WARM FRONT ALONG WITH THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSIONBILL WILL GRADUALLY MOVE THROUGH THE REGION...PRESENTING A THREATOF HEAVY RAINFALL. HIGH PWAT AIRMASS ALONG WITH A SOUTHERLY LOW-JET WILL BE IN PLACE...BOTH ABOUT 2 STD DEV ABOVE NORMAL. STRONGISENTROPIC ASCENT DURING THE LATE MORNING THRU EARLY AFTERNOONWILL LEAD TO A PERIOD HEAVY RAFL. ATTM...MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVESHOWN LITTLE RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY WITH REGARD TO THE AXIS OFHEAVIEST RAFL...ANYWHERE FROM THE DELMARVA TO THE I-78 CORRIDOR.WHERE IT DOES SETUP...A GENERAL 1-2 INCHES OF RAFL IS ANTICIPATEDWITH ISOLATED 3 INCH AMOUNTS POSSIBLE...BASED ON GFS/UKMET QPFWHICH HAS PERFORMED THE BEST SO FAR WITH THIS SYSTEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted June 18, 2015 Share Posted June 18, 2015 Shades of last year and/or Jun '09. Those spiking the ball that this summer was going to be warmer might be in big trouble. no sign of anything hot outside a day or two here and there. It still appears places away from the coast will average above normal this month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted June 18, 2015 Share Posted June 18, 2015 a look at the radar versus what the HRRR showed, shows how far this model needs to come to be remotely credible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 18, 2015 Share Posted June 18, 2015 Shades of last year and/or Jun '09. Those spiking the ball that this summer was going to be warmer might be in big trouble. no sign of anything hot outside a day or two here and there. The last legit summer heat here was back in July 2013. It's pretty tough to extend to a major summer heat streak beyond 4 years like we did from 2010-2013. That recent summer heat was even more impressive than 52-55 and 93-95. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted June 18, 2015 Share Posted June 18, 2015 Drought uncancel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted June 18, 2015 Share Posted June 18, 2015 The last legit summer heat here was back in July 2013. It's pretty tough to extend to a major summer heat streak beyond 4 years like we did from 2010-2013. That recent summer heat was even more impressive than 52-55 and 93-95. yep and that ended on a dime ushering a chilly august. We've been in a long term cool pattern since then ala -EPO. Figure we have another year before the Warm pacific pool dissipates and we see more of a +EPO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 18, 2015 Share Posted June 18, 2015 yep and that ended on a dime ushering a chilly august. We've been in a long term cool pattern since then ala -EPO. Figure we have another year before the Warm pacific pool dissipates and we see more of a +EPO Yeah, 4 years was also the magic number for the NYC 40"+ snowfall season streak from 02-03 to 05-06. We had to endure the 06-07 to 08-09 lackluster winters before we found the groove again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 18, 2015 Share Posted June 18, 2015 It's the NAM but 18z gives the area 2-3" of rain Sunday with Bill. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted June 18, 2015 Share Posted June 18, 2015 Shades of last year and/or Jun '09. Those spiking the ball that this summer was going to be warmer might be in big trouble. no sign of anything hot outside a day or two here and there. Some of us will finish at least plus 1.5 for June Also I wouldnt put any stock in long range models who flip flop every run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted June 18, 2015 Share Posted June 18, 2015 Some of us will finish at least plus 1.5 for June Also I wouldnt put any stock in long range models who flip flop every run There will likely be a decent gradient across the area for monthly temperatures, areas from about Philly SW will be 2+, NYC area about average and then it will be below normal from about Hartford NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 18, 2015 Share Posted June 18, 2015 Some of us will finish at least plus 1.5 for June Also I wouldnt put any stock in long range models who flip flop every run The ensembles consistently build an east coast trough the last week of June. Most sites will finish below normal or close to average. If you have proof of an above average site I would like to see the data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted June 18, 2015 Share Posted June 18, 2015 The ensembles consistently build an east coast trough the last week of June. Most sites will finish below normal or close to average. If you have proof of an above average site I would like to see the data. He must be trolling-no one is finishing +1.5 especially based on model data Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 18, 2015 Share Posted June 18, 2015 He must be trolling-no one is finishing +1.5 especially based on model dataHe never uses actual data. Just makes it up as he goes and then hopes nobody calls him out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted June 18, 2015 Share Posted June 18, 2015 He never uses actual data. Just makes it up as he goes and then hopes nobody calls him out. But everyone's also assuming the data actually plays out as shown. Just because it signals a trough doesn't mean it will happen that way. +1.5 might be too much but a few +1 readings wouldn't surprise me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted June 19, 2015 Share Posted June 19, 2015 Been very cool in Westchester this week...70F Monday, 75F Tuesday, 77F Wednesday, and 73F today. Modeling has consistently wanted to bring in heat but it continues to be squashed to the south. However a warm front near the area has created quite the gradient...Central Park was close to 80F Mon-Wed while my area was 5-10 degrees cooler... Should see a region wide cool down as the PNA reasserts itself with lower heights dominating in the East. This lines up nicely with the -SOI period modeled, changes in the MJO, and a more Nino-like atmosphere and resultant CONUS pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted June 19, 2015 Share Posted June 19, 2015 Miserable day....awful forcast by the local weather outlets Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 19, 2015 Share Posted June 19, 2015 Been very cool in Westchester this week...70F Monday, 75F Tuesday, 77F Wednesday, and 73F today. Modeling has consistently wanted to bring in heat but it continues to be squashed to the south. However a warm front near the area has created quite the gradient...Central Park was close to 80F Mon-Wed while my area was 5-10 degrees cooler... Should see a region wide cool down as the PNA reasserts itself with lower heights dominating in the East. This lines up nicely with the -SOI period modeled, changes in the MJO, and a more Nino-like atmosphere and resultant CONUS pattern. Yeah you can have driven the turnpike tuesday from exit 4(93s) to exit 9 (91) to exit 11 (87) to exit 14 (77) to the low 70s north of there. Cooler/wetter overall looks likely now 6/18 - 6/28. Some warm days in there 6/22, 6/24 but looks to overall avg below normal. What happens the last few days of June will determine if we can close June on the plus side. I suspect those north of Middlesex have lost the opportunity and will yield a -1.0 to -2.0 in the NYC area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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