jhamps10 Posted May 10, 2015 Share Posted May 10, 2015 Like a few others here who have made mention of tomorrow, given the current storms around I-20, do you think the SPC threat within the DFW area and around is still valid tomorrow? Just looking at the models tonight it seems the threat shifts farther east and south but could be reading them wrong not looking at all the pieces. With it being Mother's Day and all, I'm sure there will be many folks out and about which has me concerned. good question, I was going to bring it up before I went to bed myself.. I want some professional thoughts on this, yeah the flooding threat is still there, but will the severe thunderstorm threat be as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidwestChaser Posted May 10, 2015 Share Posted May 10, 2015 For Saturday (9 May), I see a lot of problems with this set-up, +PDO/drought climatology and past performance not least, but also including the potential for back-veer-back at 850-500 mb, the relatively weak wind fields (making mesoscale factors like moisture return all the more critical), and the likelihood for drier low-level air to scour out low-level moisture in the eastern Gulf (thanks to our developing subtropical sloppy off the SE coast). The high model variability in the short term would favor the ECMWF solution, which is slower and delays the arrival of more significant large-scale forcing until early evening. If other factors conspire against this set-up, then the slower arrival of forcing would be a deal-killer. While early signs in other respects may appear promising, I would bet on a combination of a few factors limiting the tornado threat to perhaps a few brief touchdowns. I could be wrong, but I would not bet against the seasonal trend. Good call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 10, 2015 Author Share Posted May 10, 2015 To be fair many of the tornado reports today were for relatively brief tornadoes (not all though). However, that does not excuse his posts when the actual event was happening by any stretch of the imagination. Oh, and it was not veer-back-veer that led to the N-Central TX supercells going HP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidwestChaser Posted May 10, 2015 Share Posted May 10, 2015 To be fair many of the tornado reports today were for relatively brief tornadoes (not all though). However, that does not excuse his posts when the actual event was happening by any stretch of the imagination. Oh, and it was not veer-back-veer that led to the N-Central TX supercells going HP. His "I've been patient" line was hilariously bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derecho! Posted May 10, 2015 Share Posted May 10, 2015 Good call. it's the same call before every possible event in a semi-trolling fashion (there is also a cooler-than-thou anti-weenie angle.) Making the same call over and over again and having it be correct some of the time isn't forecast skill. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 10, 2015 Author Share Posted May 10, 2015 Making the same call over and over again and having it be correct some of the time isn't forecast skill. This, so so much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted May 10, 2015 Share Posted May 10, 2015 His "I've been patient" line was hilariously bad. It is getting old and cluttering up the threads. It is one thing to legitimately make a call, but coming up with bizarre incorrect reasoning for ****ting on every potential is getting tiresome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted May 10, 2015 Share Posted May 10, 2015 On top of it, it's the only thing 99% of the time he adds to threads. And then disappears whenever he's wrong. You can usually tell a big outbreak is coming when a couple posters in here yell bust leading up to almost every event. It's like a broken record. Hence why I only nowcast. I don't know a damn thing about forecasting, so I don't put it out there like I do. I lurk, and learn. It's not a hard concept. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 10, 2015 Author Share Posted May 10, 2015 WRT the Cisco tornado, pretty fortunate (despite the casualties) that the tornado didn't actually go through the town itself, which has almost 4000 people. It appeared to be at its most intense when it was essentially due south of town too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sydney Claridge Posted May 10, 2015 Share Posted May 10, 2015 Just had some pretty strong winds here in Fort Worth from this bow echo that passed through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UKStormFan Posted May 10, 2015 Share Posted May 10, 2015 Tornado warned cell around Northern down town Dallas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sydney Claridge Posted May 10, 2015 Share Posted May 10, 2015 Rotation now over Lewisville: BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTEDTORNADO WARNINGNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX641 AM CDT SUN MAY 10 2015THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FORT WORTH HAS ISSUED A* TORNADO WARNING FOR... SOUTHEASTERN DENTON COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS...* UNTIL 715 AM CDT* AT 641 AM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR GRAPEVINE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH. HAZARD...TORNADO. SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION. IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE DAMAGE IS LIKELY.* THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR... COPPELL AROUND 645 AM CDT. LEWISVILLE...HIGHLAND VILLAGE AND HICKORY CREEK AROUND 650 AM CDT. CARROLLTON...LAKE DALLAS...LAKE LEWISVILLE AND HEBRON AROUND 655 AM CDT. THE COLONY AND HACKBERRY AROUND 700 AM CDT. FRISCO AND LITTLE ELM AROUND 705 AM CDT. PLANO AROUND 710 AM CDT.OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM INCLUDELAKEWOOD VILLAGE.THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 35E BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 446 AND 456.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...TAKE COVER NOW! MOVE TO A BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWESTFLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF YOU ARE OUTDOORS...IN AMOBILE HOME...OR IN A VEHICLE...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIALSHELTER AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.&&LAT...LON 3299 9684 3299 9703 3298 9704 3298 9706 3299 9719 3326 9684TIME...MOT...LOC 1141Z 232DEG 38KT 3298 9707TORNADO...RADAR INDICATEDHAIL...<.75IN$$DUNN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted May 10, 2015 Share Posted May 10, 2015 Tornado warned cell around Northern down town Dallas. Yes up by Southlake and Grapevine, now into Flower Mound and Lewisville. It would be the QLCS variety but it was pretty impressive, nice inflow notch developed in the line, BWER visible and a base velocity couplet even despite the mean storm motion dominating the outbound from the X band in Addison. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted May 10, 2015 Share Posted May 10, 2015 Rotation redeveloped just south of the TOR box... another QLCS spinup between I635 and Belt Line approaching Addison. And also one through Carrolton. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NTXYankee Posted May 10, 2015 Share Posted May 10, 2015 Either high res models don't have a good handle on the current storms moving through DFW or the impacts are minimal. There looks to be a boundary that will sit just northwest of us with all of them showing dew point and surface cape recovering later this morning with more storms forming west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1900hurricane Posted May 10, 2015 Share Posted May 10, 2015 MCS in the main threat area? Never seen one of those before. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted May 10, 2015 Share Posted May 10, 2015 Sticking with the northern target today. Looks like far eastern Nebraska into adjacent west-central to northwest Iowa. The Omaha sounding looks pretty good thermodynamically, just not thrilled by the veer-back-veer aloft: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
geddyweather Posted May 10, 2015 Share Posted May 10, 2015 10% TOR probs gone from central TX. Honestly, sticking with the northern setup may be a good option today IMO. Not only is Srn SD and Nrn MO completely clear of convection and clear on satillite, allowing sun and heating to filter through, but also because cells near the low have proven they are able to form and maintain tornadoes (i.e: the Gimmel storm last night). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 10, 2015 Share Posted May 10, 2015 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0584NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK1024 AM CDT SUN MAY 10 2015AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF ERN NEB...WRN IA...SERN SD...FAR SWRNMNCONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELYVALID 101524Z - 101800ZPROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENTSUMMARY...THE RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE INCREASING INTOTHE LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON HOURS...AND THIS INCLUDES THE RISK FORTORNADOES. THE ISSUANCE OF A TORNADO WATCH IS LIKELY DURING THE NEXTCOUPLE OF HOURS.DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS UNDERWAY IN SERN SD AT THELEADING EDGE OF STRONGER DCVA PRECEDING A COMPACT MID-LEVEL VORT MAXTHAT WATER VAPOR LOOPS DEPICT AS ADVANCING NNEWD ACROSS THECNTRL/NRN PLAINS. A RELATED SFC CYCLONE IS ANALYZED N OF ONL...WHICHWILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP NNEWD INTO A ZONE OF MODEST PRESSURE FALLS.A SFC TROUGH EXTENDS S OF THE CYCLONE CENTER...WITH A WARM FRONTARCING EWD/SEWD FROM THE CYCLONE INTO CNTRL/SRN IA. WITHIN THISREGIME OF STRONG/COMPACT DEEP ASCENT...THE WARM FRONT WILL ADVANCENWD WHILE THE TROUGH SHIFTS EWD/NEWD...YIELDING A SECTOR OF UPPER50S/LOWER 60S DEWPOINTS TRACKING NEWD/NEWD ACROSS THE DISCUSSIONAREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THINNING CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH AMID-LEVEL DRY SLOT ARE ENCOURAGING DIABATIC SFC-LAYER HEATING ACROSSTHIS AREA...YIELDING MARGINAL INSTABILITY. DEEP SHEAR WILL BESUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELL STORMS...WITH AN INCREASE IN THE COVERAGEAND INTENSITY OF THIS ACTIVITY EXPECTED INTO THE AFTERNOON. WITH OAXAND FSD VWPS SAMPLING 35 KT SLYS IN THE 2-3-KM LAYER AGL...LOW-LEVELSHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR TORNADOES -- ESPECIALLY NEAR THE WARMFRONT WHERE BACKED/ESELY SFC WINDS INCREASE STREAMWISE VORTICITY ANDNEAR THE SFC CYCLONE CENTER WHERE BACKGROUND VERTICAL VORTICITY ISSTRONGEST.THE OVERALL SVR-TSTM/TORNADO RISK MAY BE RELATIVELY MORE CONFINED INTHE SHORT-TERM...AND THEN INCREASE INTO THE AFTERNOON AS MODESTDIURNAL HEATING CONTINUES...COHEN/CORFIDI.. 05/10/2015ATTN...WFO...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX... http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0584.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted May 10, 2015 Share Posted May 10, 2015 Very strong rotation on the cell south of Delmont, SD. Just got a tornado warning on it. Looks to have somewhat of a TDS also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted May 10, 2015 Share Posted May 10, 2015 ULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD 1029 AM CDT SUN MAY 10 2015 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SIOUX FALLS HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... SOUTHEASTERN DOUGLAS COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA... WEST CENTRAL HUTCHINSON COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA... EAST CENTRAL CHARLES MIX COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA... * UNTIL 1100 AM CDT * AT 1029 AM CDT...A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR WAGNER...OR 16 MILES EAST OF LAKE ANDES...MOVING NORTH AT 35 MPH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted May 10, 2015 Share Posted May 10, 2015 going to be an active day.. 1) classic late morning mini supercell development near closer to the 500mb low over NE SD and IA..look for spokes of mini Sups all day 2) central texas looks interesting with a long duration watch now up 3) linear stuff moving into AR 4) clearing behind that over central OK into central KS at this time...another round later? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted May 10, 2015 Share Posted May 10, 2015 Two areas of circulation now... one near Delmont, SD and the other north/northeast of Armour, SD. Could have two on the ground looking at CC scan, but could just be dust in the inflow notch near Armour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roy Posted May 10, 2015 Share Posted May 10, 2015 Chris Robbins posted a picture of a funnel cloud above his house in Southlake in the northern DFW area this morning. Extensive trees uprooted some house damage as well in that area and Grapevine. Apparently I slept through all the excitement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted May 10, 2015 Share Posted May 10, 2015 10% TOR probs gone from central TX. Honestly, sticking with the northern setup may be a good option today IMO. Not only is Srn SD and Nrn MO completely clear of convection and clear on satillite, allowing sun and heating to filter through, but also because cells near the low have proven they are able to form and maintain tornadoes (i.e: the Gimmel storm last night). 10% TOR probs gone from central TX, but there is now a tornado watch that boasts a 60% chance that there will be 2 or more tornadoes in the watch box. High chance of 10 or more severe hail reports and severe wind reports. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted May 10, 2015 Share Posted May 10, 2015 If the cell in SD is indeed on the ground, Delmont, SD is about to take a direct hit.. Just over 200 in population so not a big town, but people still live there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted May 10, 2015 Share Posted May 10, 2015 If the cell in SD is indeed on the ground, Delmont, SD is about to take a direct hit.. Just over 200 in population so not a big town but people still live there. 43-067-101600- /O.CON.KFSD.TO.W.0005.000000T0000Z-150510T1600Z/ DOUGLAS SD-HUTCHINSON SD- 1040 AM CDT SUN MAY 10 2015 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 AM CDT FOR SOUTHEASTERN DOUGLAS AND WEST CENTRAL HUTCHINSON COUNTIES... AT 1040 AM CDT...A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED OVER DELMONT...OR 13 MILES SOUTHWEST OF PARKSTON...MOVING NORTH AT 45 MPH. HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO AND HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted May 10, 2015 Share Posted May 10, 2015 ENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 156 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1045 AM CDT SUN MAY 10 2015 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN IOWA SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA EASTERN NEBRASKA SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA * EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY MORNING AND EVENING FROM 1045 AM UNTIL 900 PM CDT. * PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE... A FEW TORNADOES LIKELY SCATTERED LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER LIKELY ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE SUMMARY...SCATTERED SUPERCELLS AND SHORT LINES OF SUSTAINED STORMS WITH A THREAT FOR HAIL...LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND...AND A FEW TORNADOES EXPECTED OVER WATCH AREA THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted May 10, 2015 Share Posted May 10, 2015 There might be a strong tornado ongoing on that cell in SD. Debris is up to at least 14kft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted May 10, 2015 Share Posted May 10, 2015 43-067-101600- /O.CON.KFSD.TO.W.0005.000000T0000Z-150510T1600Z/ DOUGLAS SD-HUTCHINSON SD- 1040 AM CDT SUN MAY 10 2015 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 AM CDT FOR SOUTHEASTERN DOUGLAS AND WEST CENTRAL HUTCHINSON COUNTIES... AT 1040 AM CDT...A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED OVER DELMONT...OR 13 MILES SOUTHWEST OF PARKSTON...MOVING NORTH AT 45 MPH. HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO AND HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL. Yeah Delmont might have just taken a direct hit. CC exploded as the circulation exited the city to the north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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