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Unusual circumstances in progged teleconnections "might" also portent a relatively rare late season snow potential...

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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tamarack

tamarack

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Unfortunatley for this weenie, 12/92 precip didn't make it more than a few dozen miles into Maine and warning criteria only right on the NH border.  Lots of wind, though, kind of like the V Day blizzbust this year.

 

Will be at Pittston Farm, NW of Moosehead Lake, this coming Thurs-Sat.  Could be interesting at 45.9 N and 1100'.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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I'm rather agog at this 18z GFS solution for D6...  I don't think I have ever seen such a favorable set up for a prelude to a massive EC event at this time of year; namely...post the 15th of April. 

 

Ironically, earlier I was discussing in the other Model thread how less useful analogs are at this time of year. Inherent stochastic nature to spring circulation mediums means there are too many probability permutations for any one analog to fit - stats math. But... this is fanfv!kingtastic...   It hardly represents a happenstance random fluke type event that's capable of producing snow - this is a quatra hemispheric gang bang pattern right here. Just wow.  

 

post-904-0-66114900-1429310676_thumb.jpg

 

Yes yes ...day 6, 18z GFS, cackle cackle rumf rumf go the rabble...  But, again, there is a hugely intriguing teleconnector wash going on heading into this period of time, and it's really something to see the operational trying so hard to lock into sync with said signal (thread start).  So not saying any given solution, of any given cycle or model type is the coup scorer, but sufficed it is to say, solutions like this above are pretty amazing.  

 

In January, February or most of March I would be throwing up threads about doomology with that kind of canvas... I just egh, dah to this friggin' end of April thing!  I dunno, this signal I think has the power to overcome that seasonal limitation.   

 

Re this image above, the wild card (and necessary) aspect would be a successful ejection E of that western trough or at least a fragment of it.. Because with that strong -NAO ceiling pressing S (retrograding) that vortex in S/SE Canada is looking for a reason to come south at least excuse imaginable... Said interloper S/W would be just the enticement to get that interaction going; the two merge on the EC, party for a while...and oops!  Should have warn protection -

 

If nothing comes of all this, the study/interval is definitely got a lot of educational appeal. I've employed this type of reasoning many times in the past and wound up more right than wrong (Oct 2011..etc...).  The upshot?  This time of year normally chokes us with suffocating schit stench weather. If it's not going to be like this last week, at least this is interesting to follow...

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

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GGEM GFS get snow into elevated SNE for the first time but noted.

 

From an inverted trough at hr 228? I'd rather try reasoning with ISIS. 

 

They'll probably be your typical high spots in this pattern that get cold pool snow showers at the least. I don't question that. We'll see if anything comes back at 12z. It's a big block though.

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

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From an inverted trough at hr 228? I'd rather try reasoning with ISIS.

They'll probably be your typical high spots in this pattern that get cold pool snow showers at the least. I don't question that. We'll see if anything comes back at 12z. It's a big block though.

well I mean if you are going to talk verbatim it's snow. I don't see days of 60s and we might be as far away from early summer like conditions as climo possible. 515 5 H is going to be fun to watch
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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

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well I mean if you are going to talk verbatim it's snow. I don't see days of 60s and we might be as far away from early summer like conditions as cclimatoligically possible. 515 5 H is going to be fun to watch

 

Eh. If you want a late season event, that ain't gonna cut it. At least the ski areas will have fun. Pony-Os unite through Mother's Day.

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