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Modicum Mauler (II) - April 8, 2015


NorEastermass128

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I've never led either.  I'm starting to think that my spot is only good for early and late season dustings and light glaze while others rain.  For the "heart" of winter I can't see that this spot has any greater advantage then others further east and southeast. The only wins I really get are where I see 8" and the eastern flatlanders see 4"....ooooo wowwww...I'd rather get a 30" bomb and sacrifice missing out on a few inches in November and March IMHO

 

Just wait till we get one of those winters where every nor'easter seems to track right over BOS.  Then you'll feel differently. 

 

There was a time when folks thought every single deform band would end up in like eastern NY or western New England into CNE/NNE.  Lately its been better for big storms from ORH-BDL east... but you know the tide will turn at some point and we'll end up getting a series of lows going from ACY to BOS and folks will be talking about "remember when we used to get benchmark tracks"...it all cycles through and climo evens out.

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Meh there are a lot of things you need to learn yet and this winter it was proven when up and coming James schooled you. 

 

You mean the guy that literally begged me for two weeks in January to let it snow in eastern Mass because I was being selfish by keeping it all in VT?  Well, I finally "let it snow" for you guys down there, so you can thank me for this winter.

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Just wait till we get one of those winters where every nor'easter seems to track right over BOS.  Then you'll feel differently. 

 

There was a time when folks thought every single deform band would end up in like eastern NY or western New England into CNE/NNE.  Lately its been better for big storms from ORH-BDL east... but you know the tide will turn at some point and we'll end up getting a series of lows going from ACY to BOS and folks will be talking about "remember when we used to get benchmark tracks"...

he lives in arguably the best (if not very close) spot for snow in SNE east of the CT river. Give it a couple more years and a larger sample size to regress back to the mean :lol:

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Yeah '93 was pretty meh there...maybe 15"?

 

We had over 20 back this way.

 

 

 

Jan '11 was good there with over 20 inches.

in comparison to the original post not ORH, like I said in reality we are talking differences of 2-4 inches and in fact he is in a good spot for big snowstorms not as originally stated but I am sure Scooter will make some snarky deflective remark about me to prove his point

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in comparison to the original post not ORH, like I said in reality we are taking differences of 2-4 inches and in fact he is in a good spot for big snowstorms not as originally stated but I am sure Scooter will make some snarky deflective remark about me to prove his point

 

I said not the best spot. I specifically said he was in a good spot...but in general...RI isn't the first place to come to mind when it comes to SNE storms.  They sometimes can get screwed a bit. I'm not speaking of KUs either.

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i so agree with pf regarding ne tracking over bos.....all the rain ip and frz rn will be worth it

 

I was just saying, the cyclical nature of all this means we are bound to get a time period where all the sudden it seems like the deep interior is the spot that is consistently getting buried by coastal storms, while the past couple winters have favored the coastal plain.  And we'll have this same discussion but in reverse, with someone saying "remember when we used to get those big snowstorms right to the beaches like in 2013-2015 time frame...".

 

I don't think its a coincidence though that these past couple colder-than-normal winter regimes have favored the coastal spots, as it often pushes the baroclinic zone further east. 

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I was just saying, the cyclical nature of all this means we are bound to get a time period where all the sudden it seems like the deep interior is the spot that is consistently getting buried by coastal storms, while the past couple winters have favored the coastal plain.  And we'll have this same discussion but in reverse, with someone saying "remember when we used to get those big snowstorms right to the beaches like in 2013-2015 time frame...".

 

I don't think its a coincidence though that these past couple colder-than-normal winter regimes have favored the coastal spots, as it often pushes the baroclinic zone further east. 

Seemed like a pretty good winter for all of New England this year with ENE getting the best of it all, not like it was a skunk year with the coast or the Mountains getting it all. Some get A's some get B's but everyone gets the honor roll.

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I was just saying, the cyclical nature of all this means we are bound to get a time period where all the sudden it seems like the deep interior is the spot that is consistently getting buried by coastal storms, while the past couple winters have favored the coastal plain.  And we'll have this same discussion but in reverse, with someone saying "remember when we used to get those big snowstorms right to the beaches like in 2013-2015 time frame...".

 

I don't think its a coincidence though that these past couple colder-than-normal winter regimes have favored the coastal spots, as it often pushes the baroclinic zone further east. 

There have been plenty of winters in the past where the far interior did very well.  I know you know this, but lets not think the interior is all of the sudden getting unfairly screwed or something like that. I mean even this year the far interior did great. Some people are really crying a river for no reason. 

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You mean the guy that literally begged me for two weeks in January to let it snow in eastern Mass because I was being selfish by keeping it all in VT?  Well, I finally "let it snow" for you guys down there, so you can thank me for this winter.

:lol:  You were stealing his snow brah

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There have been plenty of winters in the past where the far interior did very well.  I know you know this, but lets not think the interior is all of the sudden getting unfairly screwed or something like that. I mean even this year the far interior did great. Some people are really crying a river for no reason. 

No rivers flowing at Stowe

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I was just saying, the cyclical nature of all this means we are bound to get a time period where all the sudden it seems like the deep interior is the spot that is consistently getting buried by coastal storms, while the past couple winters have favored the coastal plain.  And we'll have this same discussion but in reverse, with someone saying "remember when we used to get those big snowstorms right to the beaches like in 2013-2015 time frame...".

 

I don't think its a coincidence though that these past couple colder-than-normal winter regimes have favored the coastal spots, as it often pushes the baroclinic zone further east. 

 

There's an element of unforeseen variability too (luck or chaos really)....we've had some pretty damned cold winters that buried the interior and weren't as kind to the CP...1969-1970 is one...2000-2001 is another....both solidly cold winters with -NAO and good western ridging...but nobody on the CP will be jumping for joy anytime soon about 2000-2001, lol.

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There have been plenty of winters in the past where the far interior did very well.  I know you know this, but lets not think the interior is all of the sudden getting unfairly screwed or something like that. I mean even this year the far interior did great. Some people are really crying a river for no reason. 

 

 

Seemed like a pretty good winter for all of New England this year with ENE getting the best of it all, not like it was a skunk year with the coast or the Mountains getting it all. Some get A's some get B's but everyone gets the honor roll.

 

 

Yeah I wasn't even talking about seasonal snow on a whole...merely storm tracks with coastal storms.

 

They seem to go through cycles depending on the pattern.  Sometimes its like 2000-2001, or 2002-2003 (ALB with 50" in 10 days from 2 deform bands storms), or Dec 2003 (BTV getting two monster coastals), or 2006-2007, or 2010-2011... plenty of times with good stretches for deep interior on coastal/nor'easters. 

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No rivers flowing at Stowe

 

Haha not at 4,000ft... but I can tell you the river behind my house is definitely flowing.

 

284" now at the 3,000ft snow board.  Still probably going to finish below our 18-season average, but its been a solid winter.  Average is snowy.  I'm also spot on average at home, too.  Average snow, much below normal temps is the summary here.  The funny thing is in my yard I never went above 24" snowpack I don't think.  But its still fully covered right now. 

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Yeah I wasn't even talking about seasonal snow on a whole...merely storm tracks with coastal storms.

 

They seem to go through cycles depending on the pattern.  Sometimes its like 2000-2001, or 2002-2003 (ALB with 50" in 10 days from 2 deform bands storms), or Dec 2003 (BTV getting two monster coastals), or 2006-2007, or 2010-2011... plenty of times with good stretches for deep interior on coastal/nor'easters. 

 

2000-2001 was the only real FU to the CP the entire season. The others sort of changed their tune which can happen too. 2002-2003 was tough along immediate coast until early Feb when it came on like gang busters. 2010-2011 was incredible until about 2/2 and then tapered off. That's when you guys took over. 2006-2007 turned close to the coast, but still sucked near BOS.

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No rivers flowing at Stowe

 

Ginxy you'd also like this...the actual COOP snowfall numbers are pretty skeptical to me (there was one event this year they recorded 3.5" over 2-days and I had 13" at the snow board for comparison), but this winter is on track to have the second-lowest snowfall total since 1995-1996.  Only 2011-2012 had a lower snowfall total. 

 

1995,309.6

1996,284.9

1997,259.9

1998,193.4

1999,261.7

2000,310.0

2001,211.9

2002,169.4

2003,210.9

2004,182.9

2005,204.1

2006,232.9

2007,250.3

2008,209.3

2009,198.9

2010,180.7

2011,126.2

2012,170.2

2013,179.3

2014,153.1

 

My guess is that we had a LOT of fluffy snowfalls this winter after mid-January...and the precipitation can at the summit doesn't collect those snowfalls very well.  It needs heavy, dense, low-wind snowfalls and those are the ones it really samples best.  But in the records, this winter is going to look pretty ugly in terms of snowfall.  That and we really have been spoiled lately.  Anything over 200" at the COOP is usually decently above 300" by measuring on a snow board. Even 2010-2011 which was 180" was 314" via snow board.  But when you see those winters with like 200-250", that's a solid 350" usually. 

 

If you go through that list, the 1990s and 2000s were just pure awesome for snow up here, whereas there's been a snow drought the past few years. 

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Ginxy you'd also like this...the actual COOP snowfall numbers are pretty skeptical to me (there was one event this year they recorded 3.5" over 2-days and I had 13" at the snow board for comparison), but this winter is on track to have the second-lowest snowfall total since 1995-1996.  Only 2011-2012 had a lower snowfall total. 

 

1995,309.6

1996,284.9

1997,259.9

1998,193.4

1999,261.7

2000,310.0

2001,211.9

2002,169.4

2003,210.9

2004,182.9

2005,204.1

2006,232.9

2007,250.3

2008,209.3

2009,198.9

2010,180.7

2011,126.2

2012,170.2

2013,179.3

2014,153.1

it didn"t melt is all that counts , unless you ski,snowmobile on numbers.The pack above average variance for Mansfield is a tell all

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