Severe storms 2015 general chatter

[Ellinwood]

SPC performing a special 18z launch...already in the air.

I guess they were really, really bored.

[Eskimo Joe]

I guess they were really, really bored.

Per LWX: 

 

"A couple of stable layers aloft we are still in the process of eroding...models continue to increase instability through the afternoon as heating increases at the surface in tandem with cooling aloft.  Also, 50-60 mph winds at 15,000 ft...and approaching jet max of 100 mph at 30,000 ft. should increase convetion over the next hours."

[mappy]

kinda loving the iso tornado risk near home

[Bob Chill]

Tor warning just went up just north of ATL.

[Ian]

80% is bullish. I guess we'll get a watch but still not too impressed with how things are playing out here. 

[StudentOfClimatology]

77.8/62 now..don't think SbCape will be an issue. Looks like at least one stable layer on the RAOB sounding, but that should be gone by ~4pm or so.

[yoda]

Hmmm... are they splitting our region into two for watchboxes?

 

LWX is not included in the STW just issued... I am gathering there will be a tor watch for LWX/CTP/PHL

[yoda]

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 89
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   255 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015

   THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

   * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
     CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA
     SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL VIRGINIA

   * EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 255 PM UNTIL
     1000 PM EDT.

   * PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
     SCATTERED LARGE HAIL LIKELY WITH ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS
       TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
     SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
     A TORNADO OR TWO POSSIBLE

   SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER WESTERN NC AND
   SOUTHWEST VA...SPREADING ACROSS THE WATCH AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
   EVENING.  CLUSTERS OF STORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL
   APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN THREAT.

   THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 105
   STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 50 MILES NORTH
   NORTHEAST OF LYNCHBURG VIRGINIA TO 60 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF
   HICKORY NORTH CAROLINA.  FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH
   SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).

   PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

   REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
   FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
   AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
   THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
   AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
   DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
 

[yoda]

[Ian]

Hmmm... are they splitting our region into two for watchboxes?

Probably putting together a PDS red box for us. 

[Ian]

At least we got a chance for #sunobs. 

[yoda]

Probably putting together a PDS red box for us. 

 

 

I am guessing red box because of how they cut out LWX completely

[Ian]

 

I am guessing red box because of how they cut out LWX completely

Nothing shocks me with svr watches and warnings here but I'd really doubt it. Conditions are lagging models this far north so far. CAPE is iffy, shear is iffy, forcing is iffy. 

[yoda]

Nothing shocks me with svr watches and warnings here but I'd really doubt it. Conditions are lagging models this far north so far. CAPE is iffy, shear is iffy, forcing is iffy. 

 

I just want a good storm that gets warned this evening

[Eskimo Joe]

TOR watch

[yoda]

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 90
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   305 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015

   THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

   * TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
     DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA
     DELAWARE
     MARYLAND
     SOUTHWEST NEW JERSEY
     SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA
     NORTHERN VIRGINIA
     EASTERN PANHANDLE OF WEST VIRGINIA
     COASTAL WATERS

   * EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 305 PM UNTIL
     1000 PM EDT.

   * PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
     A COUPLE TORNADOES POSSIBLE
     SCATTERED LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2
       INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
     SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE

   SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER NORTHERN VA AND
   WESTERN MD THIS AFTERNOON...TRACKING ACROSS THE WATCH AREA.
   DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL ARE THE MAIN THREATS.  HOWEVER...BACKED LOW
   LEVEL WINDS NEAR A WARM FRONT MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO ENHANCE THE RISK
   OF ISOLATED TORNADOES OVER NORTHERN PARTS OF THE WATCH.
 

[yoda]

40/20 tor probs.... decent for this time of year in our area... 50/30 in the hail probs

[snowfan]

Ha...TOR WATCH. 

 

yolo?

[Ian]

Nothing shocks me with svr watches and warnings here but I'd really doubt it. Conditions are lagging models this far north so far. CAPE is iffy, shear is iffy, forcing is iffy. 

yup 

[H2O]

If we get any TORs they will be covered in pollen.  Yellow swirly clouds

[StudentOfClimatology]

Can see towers going up to the southwest.

[Ian]

Can see towers going up to the southwest.

they aren't really doing anything so far.. hitting 20-30k feet and blah

[Ian]

Lol. I don't quite see it either but what do I know.

SPC is awesome and full of the brightest minds but they are considerably less good east of the apps. 

[snowfan]

SPC is awesome and full of the brightest minds but they are considerably less good east of the apps.

Overly cautious in high pop zones??

[StudentOfClimatology]

they aren't really doing anything so far.. hitting 20-30k feet and blah

Might be that stable layer in the soundings..should mix out w/ increasing height falls & kinematics? Convection is beginning to fire in the prefrontal trough in W-VA/WV.

[osfan24]

Definitely miss TWC on Severe Weather days. Just turned on Accuweather out of curiosity and it's just the same taped forecasts.

[Eskimo Joe]

Enhanced risk tornado watches are serious business, especially when you have an awesome sounding like this.

[snowfan]

TWC in DC covering. Bust. 

[mappy]

No one is ever happy

[Ian]

Well the probabilities are only 40% for 2+ which is sub likely.