Severe storms 2015 general chatter

[Ian]

Updated morning LWX HWO now mentions risk of isolated tornado

How many times do they say "the"?

[Ian]

My guess is this will end up overhyped. But hey let's go rumbles. 

[Ellinwood]

And this is why you don't worry about cloud cover at 9:30am:

 

[Kmlwx]

My guess is this will end up overhyped. But hey let's go rumbles. 

[Ian]

Best forcing has always been a little late.. I think given height falls and cold air aloft we'll get stuff to form but it's a little disjointed. 

[Ian]

Jackpotville looks like a decent area to hang around. 

[high risk]

I really should be fully focused on today's threat, but the 12z NAM CONUS nest has a nice squall line moving through the area during early to mid-afternoon Wednesday.   The progged CAPE isn't great due to limited low-level moisture, but good lapse rates and impressive deep-layer shear (much better than today's) may compensate for that.    Right now, the SPC day 3 doesn't even have us in general thunder, but the overnight GFS/NAM runs to me all suggested that at least a band of showers with embedded thunder is possible here.    If the NAM is correct with its sfc heating, we could be looking at a decent threat.

[Ian]

I really should be fully focused on today's threat, but the 12z NAM CONUS nest has a nice squall line moving through the area during early to mid-afternoon Wednesday.   The progged CAPE isn't great due to limited low-level moisture, but good lapse rates and impressive deep-layer shear (much better than today's) may compensate for that.    Right now, the SPC day 3 doesn't even have us in general thunder, but the overnight GFS/NAM runs to me all suggested that at least a band of showers with embedded thunder is possible here.    If the NAM is correct with its sfc heating, we could be looking at a decent threat.

Shear is hefty and vort max is nice but the sfc dews are potentially quite awful. Op is like 45-50 dews, MOS is in the 30s. Seems questionable for now. 

[mappy]

Jackpotville looks like a decent area to hang around. 

 

keep talking dirty to me

[high risk]

      no disagreement on that.   The MOS numbers would kill the threat, but the 12z NAM and 6z GFS forecast soundings have some cape due to those mid 40's or so low-level dew points and the excellent lapse rates.    It may very well end up just being a gusty line of showers, but if it heats to near 70 like the NAM says, the soundings have a strong inverted-V structure that would allow strong momentum to be mixed down in the presence of good updrafts/downdrafts.

 

      now back to today's threat......

 

Shear is hefty and vort max is nice but the sfc dews are potentially quite awful. Op is like 45-50 dews, MOS is in the 30s. Seems questionable for now. 

[mappy]

Reed is heading to York, PA today. That's got to be a decent sign for us northerners. 

[yoda]

1630 OTLK keeps ENH... 2/30/30... below is the disco for our region

 

..WV/VA  
 
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO FORM OVER EASTERN WV AND WESTERN VA BY  
MID AFTERNOON AS STRONGER FORCING EMERGES ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE  
APPALACHIANS.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR ROTATING  
STORMS...BUT MOST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MIXED STORM MODE WITH  
SEVERAL BOWING SEGMENTS.  LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL ARE THE  
MAIN THREAT.  IF STORMS CAN MAINTAIN DISCRETE MODE...ISOLATED  
TORNADOES CANNOT BE RULED OUT.  
  

[Ian]

Reed is heading to York, PA today. That's got to be a decent sign for us northerners. 

Hopefully he was already in the area. 

[mappy]

72/61 at home

[mappy]

Hopefully he was already in the area. 

 

looks like was coming from NYC

[Ian]

looks like was coming from NYC

Poor life choices.

 

I mean.. maybe if you live up here and never chase in the Plains, but a 4 hour one-way for this? Eh. 

[mappy]

Poor life choices.

 

I mean.. maybe if you live up here and never chase in the Plains, but a 4 hour one-way for this? Eh. 

 

 

[Disc]

This might be worth an hour drive to the east. Might be a good structure day.

 

...WV/VA...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO FORM OVER EASTERN WV AND WESTERN VA BY
MID AFTERNOON AS STRONGER FORCING EMERGES ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE
APPALACHIANS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR ROTATING
STORMS...BUT MOST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MIXED STORM MODE WITH
SEVERAL BOWING SEGMENTS. LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL ARE THE
MAIN THREAT. IF STORMS CAN MAINTAIN DISCRETE MODE...ISOLATED
TORNADOES CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

[yoda]

Is LWX doing a SPEC sounding this afternoon?

[Scuddz]

For the amount of clearing out there, we're not really warming up all that well

[Ellinwood]

Is LWX doing a SPEC sounding this afternoon?

Maybe if they're really, really bored.

[eurojosh]

The line looks pretty far back for it to have any impact before nightfall...

[Kmlwx]

The line looks pretty far back for it to have any impact before nightfall...

Pretty sure our stuff (if any) would develop closer to the area. That looks like just showery stuff well west. 

[chris87]

For the amount of clearing out there, we're not really warming up all that well

 

wet soil will do that -- hard to grow the boundary layer when so much of the available energy is going to evaporation

[yoda]

FWIW, SPC went tornado watch for W SC/W NC

[Eskimo Joe]

SPC performing a special 18z launch...already in the air.

[wawarriors4]

wet soil will do that -- hard to grow the boundary layer when so much of the available energy is going to evaporation

 

Up to 81.4 down here around EZF after almost 2" of rain last night. Color me skeptical on Severe today

[Disc]

Watch likely:

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0397.html

[Eskimo Joe]

80% of a woo storms watch:  https://nwschat.weather.gov/p.php?pid=201504201754-KWNS-ACUS11-SWOMCD 

[yoda]

I could see it being a tor watch